885
FXUS64 KOUN 272000
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
300 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Our forecast area will start getting back into an active pattern
late tonight into the long term.  As high pressure exits to the
east, a surface low deepening across far western Texas will start
shifting our winds out of the southeast.  Our southeast low-level
flow will bring a return of gulf-based moisture transport through
north Texas tonight and further northward into Oklahoma on Tuesday.
The moisture return will also sharpen up a dryline which will linger
across eastern New Mexico keeping our area in a moist unstable
environment.  Yesterdays Summer Pacific cold front is stalled out
across northcentral Texas and expected to remain stationary until
perhaps late this week.  In the upper levels, northwest flow aloft
is returning with a weak ridge building over the Western U.S.

For late this evening and overnight, we could see storms develop
across northern Texas into southern Oklahoma.  Confidence is low of
seeing any convection until late this evening.  Model soundings
suggest afternoon heating may weaken but not erode the inversion cap
although a weak southeasterly low-level jet will start strengthening
after sundown over western north Texas through southwest Oklahoma.
With the surface low and stalled frontal boundary stretched across
central Texas and a potential of the low-level jet breaking the cap
in a moderate (to near strongly) unstable and strongly sheared
environment, could see severe storms initiate across northern Texas
late evening which could impact our areas near and south of the Red
River overnight.  After midnight, the first of what will be several
mid-level shortwave disturbances digging down from the High Plains
will be coming through resulting in low yet widespread storm POPs
across our entire area with increasing probabilities (40-70%) well
into the afternoon Tuesday.  In addition to elevated storms, models
in consensus with strong isentropic upglide in the lower through mid-
levels (305-315 K surfaces) starting early Tuesday so plenty of
ascent in the lower levels from warm advection.  With warm advection
increasing into our southern CWA early Tuesday morning, the severe
risk will include southwest through southcentral Oklahoma after
sunrise Tuesday.  Storms capable of producing large hail (up to golf
balls) and damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) will be the severe
hazards in the risk area late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
However, the severe risk may gradually shift more out of our
area and into central & eastern Texas as the afternoon progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

We will continue to see shortwaves across our area as the weak upper
ridge gradually builds over the Southern Plains through Thursday.
Warm advection will persist north of the stalled frontal boundary
across central Texas which may eventually lift as a warm front into
our area late this week (Thursday/Friday). The Southern Plains will
remain situated well east of the dryline so the moisture & potential
instability won`t be going away through the long term.  As our weak
ridge exits on Thursday, weak troughing will start digging through
the western U.S. although models deviate with the eastern
progression of the trough by Sunday.  However, we`ll continue to
have shortwaves expelled downflow from the trough. With all the
forcing & moisture, we`ll remain in a "wet" pattern through this
weekend with storm POPs every day through early next week. Although
deep-layer shear will be on a decreasing trend by Wednesday for
organized convection, moderate CAPE values may be sufficient for at
least strong to low-end severe storms. Accumulating rainfall each
day could start to pose a flooding risk toward the latter part of
this week, especially across our southern CWA which could see 4-5
inches storm total rainfall accumulations through Friday.  Can`t
rule out a flood watch being issued in the next couple of days.

Temperaturewise, we`ll see a cooling trend with mild temperatures
falling slightly below seasonably average with the increasing cloud
cover and rain potential.  However, upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints
will still make it feel humid through much of the southern half of
our forecast area.  Our cooling trend may end this weekend and
becoming hotter again by early next week back into the upper
80s/lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Clear skies and light winds this afternoon and evening. Will see
an increase in cloud cover overnight. Developing waa will also aid
in an increase in showers and thunderstorms initially late this
evening along/near the Red river and then farther north across
the area toward morning and continuing through the end of the
forecast period. Some MVFR conditions will accompany this
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  81  63  79 /  20  50  60  60
Hobart OK         66  82  63  80 /  30  70  70  60
Wichita Falls TX  68  84  66  80 /  30  70  70  60
Gage OK           61  82  60  78 /  20  50  70  50
Ponca City OK     62  81  61  80 /  20  30  30  30
Durant OK         66  83  66  80 /  30  50  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30