Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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307 FXUS63 KSGF 052339 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonable conditions are forecast through Friday with near average temperatures. - Pattern change for the weekend expected with potential for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Slight risk for flooding late Friday night through Saturday night. - A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Surface high pressure was moving into the region in the wake of the cold front that movers through the region this morning. This has allowed for clearing skies with temperatures climbing to around the 80 degree mark this afternoon. The Ozarks area forecast to remain under northwesterly flow aloft with reinforcing surface high pressure moving over the region Through tonight into Thursday. This will bring pleasant weather to the region with lows tonight in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees and highs on Thursday in the lower to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Thursday night through Friday: The overall upper level pattern will not chance as northwesterly flow remains thanks to upper level ridging over the western CONUS. Surface high pressure over the plains will continue to move over the Ozarks through Friday allowing for a quiet end of the work week. With high pressure over the area Friday morning, lows will drop into the lower 50s with an isolated upper 40 reading not out of the question in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks. Friday Night through the Weekend: Synoptic and ensemble models have persisted in bringing rain and storms to the Ozarks Late Friday night, mainly after midnight model depending. The set up through the weekend looks to be active and unsettled as a result. The upper level flow is forecast to remain northwesterly as a stationary front develops and orients itself parallel to the upper flow. There remains some uncertainty as to ultimately where the front will stall, but expectations are for it to occur over the Ozarks. The synoptic setup favors multiple rounds of rain moving over the same regions as the orientation of the front and upper level flow would also interact with the night time low level jet. This would provide the focus for MCS movement along the front and allow for periods of heavy rainfall. WPC currently has an Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicating a slight risk for Heavy rainfall and flooding across southern Missouri and the Ozarks late Friday night through Saturday. With the potential for multiple rounds of rainfall and periods of heavy rain current QPF amounts run from a third of an inch across central Missouri to 2.5" along the Arkansas state line. The NBM probabilities indicate the potential for at least 0.5" of rain (40-60%) to 1.0" or more (20-40%) mainly along and south of the Highway 60 corridor. This may shift north or south depending on the ultimate resting place of the front. Monday through Wednesday next week: The region will start of cool in the wake of the weekend rainfall. Dry conditions are also expected are upper level northwesterly flow, though modified at points, remains the overall upper level pattern. This may bring periods early next week of highs in the middle 70s, or about 10 degrees below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. Winds will mainly be light and variable through 14Z. A fropa will then shift winds to NW`ly at 5-10 kts. A few high clouds may also filter in during this timeframe. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Price