Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262037
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A break in the convection is occurring across extreme southeastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri early this afternoon. The
convection that tracked across portions of the Missouri Ozarks
this morning has spread to the east and is slowly tracking across
southeastern Kansas. Additional storms have developed across
central Kansas into northwestern Missouri this afternoon along
with storms developing across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas.

The upper level low remains across the southwestern U.S. and will
slowly lift into the plains on Friday. As a result the active
weather pattern continues as the storms develop across the
region.

This afternoon a very unstable air mass has developed across the
area as temperatures have warmed into the middle 80s with dew
points in the lower 70s. MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg have
developed across the area. Deep layer shear is not as strong
though with values around 20kt. Theta-E Difference are also on the
high side with values of 30 to 40 Kelvin.

The storms across Arkansas will continue to lift north this
afternoon with convection developing from south to north across
the area. Given the amount of instability in place an elevated
severe risk will occur across the entire area. Deep layer shear is
not overly strong, but still the 20kt of 0-6km bulk shear values
combined with the very unstable air mass will result in the
potential for storms capable of hail up to the size of golf
balls. Also, the high theta-E difference will lead to a damaging
wind risk with wind gusts over 60 mph. Low level shear is on the
weak side which will limit the tornado risk.

We will also have to watch the convection across Kansas as it may
try to develop into a MCS and could track into the area overnight.
Damaging winds and hail up to quarters will be possible with a few
of the stronger storms.

Storms will continue to be possible on Friday as a wave tracks
through the area ahead of the main upper level low. The
convection will limit temperatures and instability with highs in
the middle 70s. Deep layer shear will increase some on Friday, but
instability being weaker will limit a widespread severe weather
risk. Still a few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible.

Give the multiple rounds of storms and high perceptible water
values, locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible this evening into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The main upper level low will remain west of the area on Friday
and additional storms are expected to develop across western
Kansas ahead of the main low. These storms should develop into a
complex of storms and track east towards and through the area
Friday night into early Saturday morning. 0-3km bulk shear values
will be 30kt from west to east which will support a line moving
into the area. This would support a damaging wind risk and the
potential for meso vortices developing with any surges in the line
to the east. The question is just exactly where this MCS develops
and then tracks which will determine which locations are impacted
or not.

Saturday should clear out after the morning convection and should
see the atmosphere recover and more instability should develop.
The upper level wave will be lifting through the area and deep
layer shear will increase. A boundary will push east through the
area and expect storms to develop along the boundary, and could be
in the form of supercells. Large hail to golf balls will be the
main risk along with a damaging wind risk. Low level shear appears
to remain on the low side which will limit the tornado risk. Most
of Saturday will be dry until scattered storms develop later in
the afternoon to the early evening hours.

The upper level low will spread east of the area on Sunday but the
boundary will stall near the Arkansas boundary and a few storms
will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours both
Sunday and Monday afternoons, but both days will have extended dry
periods and will not be washouts by any means.

Another upper level low will move on the west coast and slowly
spread east through next week. As a result the active weather
pattern will continue next week with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected. There will be dry periods between rounds
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Expect mainly MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon with scattered
storms developing toward late afternoon and evening. Better
chances for more widespread rain and storms will occur late
evening into overnight hours however confidence is still low on
the placement of storms. Winds will generally be out of the south
and gusty this afternoon.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield



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