Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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941
FXUS63 KSGF 102333
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
533 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

An Alberta Clipper system will continue to dive southeast across
the Midwest this evening. This system has brought some light
accumulating snow to central Missouri today. This snow was
associated with a band of frontogenesis in the 700-750 mb layer.

Keying in on this layer, short term models bring another slug of
increased frontogenesis southeast which just glances central
Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening. We will
therefore keep a chance of light snow going...although most (if
not all) accumulating snow will remain across eastern Missouri. We
should see a decent temperature gradient across the region tonight
with lows ranging from the upper teens across central Missouri to
the upper 20s near the Oklahoma border.

High pressure will then slide southeast across the Midwest on
Thursday and will result in dry weather for the Ozarks. We will
again see a good temperature gradient across the region with highs
ranging from the lower and middle 30s across central Missouri to
the middle and upper 40s near the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0231 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Another Clipper type system will dive southeast across the Corn
Belt from late Thursday night into Friday morning. While any light
snow activity is expected to remain to the northeast of the
Ozarks, this system will bring another shot of colder air from
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Temperatures may actually fall
Friday afternoon...especially across central Missouri.

Attention then turns to a potential system for late this weekend.
Global models continue to indicate a short wave trough digging
across the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. However,
models continue to show differing scenarios regarding the extent
of lift as well as thermal profiles. We have therefore continued
with a rain/snow mix for now with some light snow accumulation
possible.

Behind that system, long wave charts indicate that the large scale
pattern will deamplify. This should result in a warming trend
early next work week along with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. Winds will be a
bit variable as a surface low moves across southwest Missouri
tonight and low level wind shear will be noted from mid evening until
the surface winds become northerly.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Runnels



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