Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190727
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant (level 3/4) fire danger today.

- Low chance for light showers Wednesday night through Thursday.

- Next rainmaker late weekend to early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Surface high pressure is currently passing southwest of the Ozarks,
allowing for clear skies and calm winds - the perfect setup for
efficient radiational cooling. Lows this morning are expected to dip
into the mid-20s for most of the region with cooler spots in low-
lying areas out east. A hard freeze is expected overnight tonight,
so hopefully you remembered to bring in or cover susceptible plants.
850 mb temperatures are right around the 0C mark early this morning,
up from about -8C reported by the 00Z balloon. 850 mb temperatures
will continue to rise as the high pressure moves off to the
southeast and weak mid- to surface-level troughing moves in behind
it with a return to southerly surface flow.

The handing off between the high and low pressures will create a
tight pressure gradient over the Ozarks Tuesday, and west-southwest
winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph with localized gusts up to
45 mph possible. With moisture slow to return after the departure of
the high pressure due to topography, relative humidities will dip to
near 30% across the area with eastern counties seeing values in the
mid to low 20s. Thankfully, the gustier winds are expected in the
west with the higher dewpoints. However, winds may gust near and
above humidity values (i.e., 30 mph winds with 30% humidity), which
is a rule-of-thumb indicator for fire danger. We are advertising
Significant (level 3/4) fire danger in areas with the highest winds
(an area roughly Joplin to Nevada to Ash Grove) and lowest dew
points (roughly Mountain Grove to Winona).

Besides the wind and fire danger, it will be a gorgeous sunny day
with highs in the mid 60s(and wind chills about the same due to warm
air advection). Tonight we`ll see lows in the low to mid 40s as
clear skies dominate for another night. Winds will die down
throughout the night as a weak cold front moves through and we
switch to light northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

There will be a gradient in high temperatures across the region
Wednesday as a surface trough digs down into southern MO. Highs
along the AR border will near 70 while locations in central MO will
reach around 60. Winds will be light. Clouds will begin filtering in
as moisture returns and it will be mostly cloudy by evening.

An upper level shortwave will approach from the west Wednesday night
and begin ejecting energy into the Ozarks as it passes through,
bringing rain chances beginning Wednesday night through the day
Thursday. Chances peak near 40% for areas along the OK and AR
borders late morning/midday. Rain is expected to be light.

Just as the shortwave clears the area Thursday night, a surface
trough digs in from the north and brings low chances (20-30%) for
scattered showers to central MO. Both of these events will be light,
and with the dry airmass in place, many locations will likely remain
dry.

Highs will hang around 60 degrees from midweek through the weekend
with lows around 40. A more substantial rainmaker is progged to move
through Sunday into Monday with PoPs up to 70-80% areawide. Models
differ a bit on timing and strength, so details will need to be
worked out as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with clear
skies. Winds will be west-southwesterly with gusts up to 30 kts
throughout Tuesday morning. A brief period of low-level wind
shear is expected Tuesday morning with another bout near the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson


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