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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260442
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

REMNANTS FROM SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF MCS BROUGHT A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY...BUT
THIS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WITH THE MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FOR THIS EVENING...CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AGAIN TONIGHT...ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
WITH REMNANTS AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE INSTABILITY
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE VICINITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE SOME GOOD JET STRUCTURE WITH IT AND WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BEST
ENERGY TO THE WEST AND LIFTING IT NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HAVE STILL TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AT THE
SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND BE
MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...FOSTER