Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 210454
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Clouds have been on the increase today with a few showers beginning
to move into portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri. An
upper level low was currently near the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon and will slowly move eastward tonight into Monday. This
upper level low will open up and weaken as it moves eastward.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase from
west to east late tonight into Monday. Not expecting any strong
convection because shear will be lacking. Bulk shear will be only
10 to 20 knots. QPF will average about half an inch with some
locations up to an inch possible. A front will move through Monday
evening and move the rain chances out of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Slightly cooler and drier air will move in for Tuesday but
temperatures will be back to slightly above average by middle and
end of the week. The next storm system and front will move into
the area by late Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be enough
shear and instability for stronger storms but not expecting
anything severe at this time with this system on Thursday. The
ECMWF solution has a little better dynamics for stronger
convection that the GFS.

That front appears it will stall out across Arkansas and then
slowly work back to the north across the Missouri Ozarks as a warm
front on Friday night into next weekend. With the front around and
a stronger upper level storm system moving in the region next
weekend...the weather pattern looks active and unsettled. Will
mention the chance for showers and scattered storms in the
forecast next weekend. Temperatures will be near or slightly above
normal through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered light showers will shift
northeast into the region over the next few hours as an upper
level disturbance and sfc front/trough approach the region.
Increased low level moisture and precip will aid in gradually
lowering ceilings and visibility with mvfr conditions becoming
more common toward 12z. The sfc front will shift winds to the west
and northwest late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA






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