Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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458 FXUS63 KSGF 132315 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 615 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong storms possible this afternoon/evening. Low flooding threat. - Rain diminishing late today then isolated to scattered showers and storms return on Tuesday. Dry Tuesday night and Wednesday. - Additional precipitation possible late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A low pressure system will continue to move through the region today before moving out on Tuesday. In the warm sector ahead of the low this afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected, as we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms given MUCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of up to 30-35 kts. Overall, expect organization to be limited, which should limit severe threats to hail up to 1 inch in diameter and gusts less than 60 mph in the very strongest storms. Very localized flooding is also possible through this evening, mainly due to increased soil moisture from recent rainfall events. Could see localized additional rainfall amounts up to 1-2 inches, but most locations will see less than that. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected on Tuesday, ending from west to east in the afternoon/evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry for the most part, then models show additional rounds of upper level energy bringing rain chances Wednesday night into Sunday. There is a high degrees of variability in guidance, which lowers confidence, but the best chances for rain are Wednesday night into Thursday at 50-70%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 For the 00z TAFS, some convection just northwest of SGF may affect the area between 00z and 03z, but currently am expecting mostly dry conditions at JLN/BBG. Do have some light wind and fog developing overnight. Lower ceilings should develop overnight with some IFR conditions at all 3 TAF sites. This should begin to improve into MVFR by the mid morning hours Tuesday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Lindenberg