Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The threat for widespread dense fog has diminished early this
morning across southern Missouri. Patches of IFR visibility are
still expected, but the threat for LIFR is low. Any fog will then
burn off by mid-morning as southerly winds increase. Some weather
models bring in a few hours of MVFR cloud cover later this
morning, however we have elected to keep this threat out of the
TAFs given an overall lack of MVFR ceilings in regional
observations. Thus, we are expecting VFR conditions from mid-
morning through most of tonight. We will have to watch for fog
potential again late tonight, but confidence remains low in this
scenario.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





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