172
FXUS64 KTSA 301721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Multiple areas of showers and thunderstorms were depicted on radar
and satellite this morning across the region. In particular, a MCV
was noted in S-Central Oklahoma and another convective complex was
navigating along & north of the OK-KS border. Expectation is for
these features to gradually shift eastward over the next several
hours. As they do so, convective inhibition across E OK will
continue to erode into this afternoon and allow for increasing
shower/ storm coverage. Thus, will keep PoPs fairly close to the
ongoing forecast with this update (chance/ low-end likely). While
bulk shear will remain on the low side, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and
modest mid-level lapse rates may still support a marginally severe
storm or two. The highest severe risk will occur across SE OK/ along
& W of Hwy 75 in NE OK. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape
with only minor updates made to better reflect current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms continue this morning well
west of the area across the high Plains. Latest CAMS have been
somewhat inconsistent with storm evolution today. At least scattered
showers/thunderstorms are expected to move and/or develop across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon/evening.
Deep layer shear is expected to remain relatively light (20kts or
less), but with modest afternoon heating a few of these storms
could be marginally severe across eastern Oklahoma with damaging
winds/hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
into Friday as strong mid level wave moves across the region.
Locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms.
Depending on how much surface based instability can develop, at
least a limited threat for severe storms will be possible south of
I-40. The heavier precipitation will begin to shift east of
northwest Arkansas Friday evening.

With stronger zonal flow aloft both GFS/ECMWF suggest additional
rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through
Wednesday with the potential for additional MCS/MCV activity.
Overall QPF amounts will likely remain light in most areas, however
there could be some isolated pockets of heavier rainfall. High
temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above normal for
the early to middle part of next week, but again this will be
contingent on how much precipitation lingers each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and T-storms are expected across E OK
& NW AR today thru tomorrow morning with cigs/vsbys periodically
falling into MVFR/IFR category for all sites. VFR conditions are
currently being observed across NW AR sites, but expect conditions
to deteriorate here by late afternoon. Guidance has begun to
indicate a longer & more widespread period of IFR conditions
developing after 06z tonight and persisting into the 12-18z
timeframe. Kept the forecast towards the optimistic side for now
(MVFR), though future updates may be required if current trends
continue. Except for when influenced by thunderstorms, winds
should remain near or below 10 kts through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  77  63  84 /  70  90  40  20
FSM   67  78  67  85 /  50  80  60  40
MLC   66  79  64  84 /  70  90  40  30
BVO   62  76  60  83 /  80  80  30  20
FYV   63  75  62  83 /  50  80  60  40
BYV   63  73  63  81 /  40  80  70  40
MKO   65  75  63  83 /  70  90  50  30
MIO   64  73  62  81 /  70  80  50  20
F10   64  76  63  83 /  70  90  40  30
HHW   65  78  66  81 /  60  90  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...43