Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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020 FXUS64 KTSA 280242 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 942 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 940 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Elevated convection is expected to develop across Oklahoma later tonight. Much of this activity will remain to our west, but the southern and western parts of our forecast area may be affected before daybreak. Have raised both pops and sky cover a bit later tonight as a result. Also lowered overnight lows a bit in some places, most notably near KFYV. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Primary sfc boundary orientation becomes NW to SE tomorrow and aligned with the flow aloft. Expectation is the primary focus for more widespread storms remains along the western periphery of the forecast area and points westward, however there remains enough guidance spread within a notoriously poorly modeled flow regime to warrant low precip chances area wide. Sufficient instability and shear profiles will exist to support an isolated severe risk through tomorrow night. Shower and storm chances continue on Wednesday with potential for a trend upward in overall chances as subtle vort maxes emerge from the widespread convection which will have occurred over the western High Plains. This level of detail will be more apparent with time but do not be surprised if precip chances trend upward Wednesday / Wed. night. Flow aloft transitions to more westerly Thursday into Friday and a notable wave is expected to pass during this time frame. Another period of high shower and storm chances is forecast with locally heavy rainfall amounts remaining a possibility. Some degree of severe weather risk will likely also be present but widespread organized storms do not appear likely at this time. Daily precip chances continue through next weekend as southwesterly unsettled flow aloft interacts with plentiful moisture and instability. A stormy and wet start to the month of June is likely. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Clear skies this evening will gradually become scattered to broken mid clouds by mid-morning on Tuesday. Expect some spotty showers also, except at KMLC where showers are expected to prevail with a chance of thunderstorms. Used PROB30 there to cover potential. Sfc winds will be light and variable tonight into Tuesday. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 83 62 83 / 20 30 30 30 FSM 64 87 65 83 / 10 30 30 40 MLC 64 86 64 82 / 20 40 40 50 BVO 58 80 58 82 / 20 30 20 30 FYV 56 84 59 82 / 10 20 20 30 BYV 60 83 59 80 / 0 20 10 20 MKO 63 84 62 80 / 20 30 30 40 MIO 60 81 58 81 / 10 20 10 20 F10 63 83 62 80 / 20 40 40 40 HHW 66 84 64 78 / 30 40 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30