738
FXUS64 KTSA 030905
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
405 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The main focus for today will be an organizing MCS that is
currently across southwest Kansas. CAM`s are in reasonably good
agreement that this storm complex will track southeast into
northeast Oklahoma later this morning, and will maintain or even
increase in intensity through the day as it advances southeast
through much of our forecast area. Damaging winds will be the main
severe weather threat with this complex. Scattered showers and
storms may also develop ahead of the complex this morning, and
some hail potential will exist with this activity. Locally heavy
rainfall amounts will also be possible today. Temperatures today
are problematic, but think most places should top out in the 80-85
degree range, with southern areas seeing their highs prior to the
arrival of the storm complex.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convective chances tonight behind today`s complex are highly
uncertain, so have stuck with the NBM pops for now. Much of
Tuesday will likely be dry, but storm chances will ramp up Tuesday
evening and overnight as a weak frontal boundary approaches from
the north. Severe storms and locally heavy rainfall appear likely
again at this time.

A relatively dry period will exist behind this frontal boundary
Wednesday through Friday before mainly overnight and morning storm
chances increase again by the weekend as high plains convection
tracks southeast each night in the northwest flow pattern aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The potential for MVFR cigs and storms during the morning hours at
the TAF sites is the main forecast concern. CAMs suggest storms
will begin to develop around 12Z near the NE OK and KFSM sites.
With the idea that confidence in this scenario is higher, TEMPOs
were used. Farther east into NW AR more uncertainty exists and
therefore used PROB30 mention. There`s also a chance that an MCS
will sweep in from the northwest during the morning hours as
well. MVFR cigs are expected to most sites toward 12Z, with cigs
rising back to VFR by midday or early afternoon. Storm chances
will be winding down during the afternoon also and should be too
low to mention thru the end of the forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  69  86  68 /  90  40  20  60
FSM   84  71  87  70 /  80  50  20  70
MLC   83  70  86  69 /  80  50  10  60
BVO   81  66  85  66 /  90  50  20  60
FYV   81  67  84  66 /  70  40  30  70
BYV   80  66  84  66 /  70  40  30  70
MKO   80  69  86  69 /  80  40  10  70
MIO   80  67  84  66 /  80  50  30  70
F10   82  69  86  68 /  70  50  10  70
HHW   84  69  86  70 /  60  50  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30