166
FXUS64 KTSA 251745
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Current forecast for today is on track as moisture continues
to return rapidly across the area. Have only made a few
adjustments to the forecast for today to better reflect
the latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A few showers and storms continue across far southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas early this morning as a narrow zone of
isentropic ascent focuses over the region. This should weaken and
shift east with time this morning with all precip out of the area
by sunrise. Attention then turns to the threat of severe weather
later this afternoon and tonight across the area. Broad
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains this afternoon
with a modestly strong jet streak emanating northeastward from
eastern New Mexico into western and north-central Oklahoma by
early evening. At the surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will move back northward during the day today as a surface low
deepens across western Kansas, allowing more tropical like
moisture to return to eastern Oklahoma by late afternoon. A
dryline will extend southward through western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas as well.

The combined instability and shear parameters in place will
support a significant severe risk with any storms that form across
western/central Oklahoma and then track eastward into eastern
Oklahoma during the evening hours. However, a couple of factors
could limit the convective coverage across the risk area... one of
those being a pretty substantial capping inversion looks to be in
place and even strengthen throughout the day as 850HPa temps are
forecast to range from 21-25C by early evening through eastern
Oklahoma. Also, deeper moisture return that would help break the
cap looks to be mainly confined to a narrow axis across northwest
Texas and western Oklahoma near the dryline with more shallow near
surface moisture across most of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. All of this will likely limit convection across much of
Oklahoma through the afternoon. Mid level height falls will
eventually overspread the dryline and the rest of the region by
late afternoon. This is when at least isolated thunderstorms are
expected to initiate across western and central Oklahoma and track
eastward into eastern Oklahoma during the evening hours. The
degree of capping and better synoptic forcing being displaced to
the north means that storms are expected to remain discreet and
may be few and far between. But, given the parameters in place
These storms could be significant as they enter eastern Oklahoma,
with hail in excess of 2" in diameter, damaging winds and
potentially strong tornadoes. Forecast soundings show good low
level curvature of the winds, but mid to upper level winds are
largely unidirectional which signals possible splitting
supercells and more storm interactions as storms mature, likely
limiting the significant severe threat somewhat. Increased capping
and loss of synoptic support by late evening will mean storms
should begin to weaken before they get to northwest Arkansas with
less severe threat for those areas. Though a more organized MCS
could take shape across Kansas and drop southeastward, clipping
parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight,
with mainly damaging wind potential.

Not everyone will see a storm today, but continue to watch the
forecast for updates and be ready to seek shelter if threatened by
a storm.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Some showers could linger across far northwest Arkansas SUnday
morning, but otherwise the stormy weather should be moving out for
a few days. A few storms could develop across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday afternoon as a cold front
moves through the region, with some severe potential. Those storms
should quickly shift east of the area with the frontal boundary
by Sunday evening. A warm and quiet day is expected for your
Memorial Day on Monday, with a break from the active pattern for
the first part of the week and mid level ridging builds in
overhead.

A different type of active pattern looks to take shape however as
we head into the middle part of the week. Broad mid level ridging
across the southern and western CONUS will set up northwesterly
flow aloft over our area through the rest of the week. The set up
appears prime for rounds of High PLains afternoon convection
organizing into an MCS and moving southeastward into Oklahoma
during the overnight hours. Near nightly chances for thunderstorms
return to the forecast through the rest of the period, though
these MCS`s are hard to predict this far out as far as exact
placement and track. But, at least some part of the area will see
increased storm chances through the end of the week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions are common across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this afternoon. This trend is expected to
continue through the period. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms
are forecast to impact area sites later this evening into the
overnight hours. Have included a PROB30 for thunder to all sites
to cover this potential.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  89  62 /   0  30  10  10
FSM   88  73  91  66 /   0  30  20  10
MLC   87  72  91  64 /   0  30  10  10
BVO   88  67  88  58 /   0  50  10  10
FYV   85  69  87  61 /   0  30  20  10
BYV   85  68  88  61 /   0  40  20  10
MKO   86  71  90  62 /   0  30  10  10
MIO   85  67  86  59 /   0  50  10  10
F10   86  71  91  61 /   0  40  10  10
HHW   85  71  89  65 /   0  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10