National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240932
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES OVER THE PLAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHWEST TX IS
SPREADING HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVER OK AND AR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COOL EASTERLY WIND PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH INTO KS THIS
MORNING. WITH NO APPRECIABLE FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLAY TODAY I
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING
A WEAK UPPER LOW OR POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCV FROM THE MCS DOWN SOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY LOW
END POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AND THE TRANSITION TO
A SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND DEEP
LAYER THICKNESSES INCREASE...SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED. THE CAP STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE STAYS WELL WEST...AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY.

SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE PLAINS. AN EXTENDED UPPER JET LIES OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC OCEAN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL EVENTUALLY DIG AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  82  66 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   79  57  84  63 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   77  61  81  65 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   76  59  83  64 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   72  53  77  61 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   70  51  77  60 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   78  58  81  65 /  10  10  20  20
MIO   76  57  80  63 /  10  10  20  20
F10   78  61  82  65 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   80  62  82  65 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30

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