Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 282101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
401 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered over New Mexico will lift east northeast
tonight and Wednesday resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Surface based instability will remain very limited
tonight as the true warm front remains to the south, and this will
limit the damaging wind potential with the line or lines of
storms that will move into our area overnight. The linear nature
of the storms are also likely to limit the hail potential, so the
overall severe risk in our area does not appear to be that great
overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will be the greatest threat,
especially across the western part of our forecast area.

The severe weather threat Wednesday will depend a great deal on
the future evolution of the overnight convection. If the
atmosphere can recover sufficiently, a better severe risk may
exist Wednesday afternoon, especially across the eastern part of
our forecast area.

Thursday looks like a raw day, with some wraparound precipitation,
especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. A quick warmup will take place Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next upper system that will result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances during the latter half of the weekend into
the first of next week. As of now, it appears the track of this
system will be south of the current one, so the severe risk should
remain quite limited in our area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  74  47  57 /  90  80  40  60
FSM   59  74  52  62 /  40  70  40  50
MLC   62  75  47  59 /  70  80  30  30
BVO   58  72  46  57 /  90  80  40  60
FYV   56  71  49  59 /  40  80  40  60
BYV   54  71  50  61 /  40  80  60  60
MKO   61  73  48  58 /  60  80  40  40
MIO   57  71  48  59 /  60  80  50  60
F10   61  75  46  57 /  80  70  40  30
HHW   63  75  50  63 /  60  80  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

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