Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 050934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
434 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AN INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG AN 850-MB THERMAL GRADIENT THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AGAIN ALONG THE 850-MB THERMAL
GRADIENT AND NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOUR FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER.

THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. INSTABILITY OVER 70+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND 30-40KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GREATER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PAWNEE
OKLAHOMA TO FORT SMITH ARKANSAS.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE THE GREATER
PRECIP CHANCES ARE...SHOULD REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S LIKE
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...A
MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
WELL AS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRISTOW TO HUGO
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR THE PRECIP PUSHES SOUTHWARD
TODAY COULD KEEP PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM REACHING FORECASTED HIGHS...AND OR THE OTHERWAY
AROUND...IF PRECIP DOES NOT REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN AFTERNOON
TEMPS COULD WARM MORE THAN FORECASTED. A LOT DEPENDS ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES...WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HOLDS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AGAIN THE GREATER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA.

EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY RETREATS
NORTHWARD...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPREAD
FURTHER NORTHWARD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINATE
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY
TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE
MONDAY. WILL ADD ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION DUE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME COOLER TEMPS FOR THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
IS JUST A TEASE OR NOT...



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  97  77 /  30  40  10  10
FSM   94  75  97  77 /  40  50  20  20
MLC   96  78  99  79 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   89  71  94  74 /  60  40  10  20
FYV   87  70  91  74 /  60  60  30  20
BYV   85  70  89  72 /  70  70  30  20
MKO   93  75  95  76 /  40  40  20  10
MIO   87  70  91  74 /  70  50  10  20
F10   96  76  97  78 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   98  77 100  78 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ049-053-064>066-071-073.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20


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