Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12




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