Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 070930
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front which will move through much of the area during the
afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and become gusty
especially across northeast OK. This combination of warm
temperatures and gusty winds will support rapid wildfire spread
potential. Winds will be slow to subside overnight with a further
increase in winds on Monday along with noticeably cooler
temperatures. This will be the glancing shot of much colder air
which will be felt moreso to our north and east...while above
normal temperatures focus to our west.

As the area remains poised along the gradient between the two
temperature anomalies...any subtle shift either direction in the
favored airmasses will result in a sharp change in realized
temperatures. This is seen in the large variance within ensemble
temperature solutions and accordingly the temperature forecast
for mid to late week carries considerable uncertainty. The much
more certain aspect is that a dry forecast will continue into
next weekend. Thereafter the pattern becomes somewhat less
amplified and a more substantial wave along with appreciable
moisture return looks possible with precip chances returning
toward the first of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07



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