Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1029 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017


Above normal temperatures with increasing high clouds from the
south and southwest will prevail today, with quiet conditions
overall. The current forecast is well in hand, and no update is
planned this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

High clouds will continue today with light south winds. Thicker
low/mid clouds are expected to move into eastern Oklahoma Friday
morning just outside the current TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

The main focus of this forecast period will be on Saturday into
Saturday night with the increasing potential for severe weather
and heavy rainfall as a vigorous mid-level trof and associated
cold front move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Today will be another unseasonably warm Autumn day across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure at the surface and
aloft prevail. Friday will see slightly cooler temperatures as
the cloud cover and moisture increase across the region in advance
of the storm system that is expected to affect the area over the
weekend. There continues to be a small chance of elevated showers
and thunderstorms during the day on Friday as a mid-level
shortwave moved out of Texas and across the area. There will be
slightly better chances of elevated showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Saturday morning in the warm air advection
regime ahead the approaching cold front.

As mentioned earlier, the main concern with the forecast package
will be Saturday and especially Saturday night as a cold front is
expected to sweep across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
The models have been very consistent over the past several days
with the timing of the cold front through the area. Severe weather
is looking more likely with a line of severe thunderstorms expected
to develop in the vicinity of the cold front to our north and
west and move into eastern Oklahoma Saturday evening and into
western Arkansas as we move into the late evening and overnight
hours. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern.
However, the threat for tornadoes will not be zero. With precipitable
water values in excess 1.5 inches expected across the area Saturday
night, 1 to 2 inches of rain will be common across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Saturday into Saturday with some areas seeing
upwards of 4 inches of rain. The showers and thunderstorms are
expected to come to an end Sunday morning as the cold front moves
east of the area.

The forecast for early next week is a little more murky as the
models now seemingly agree that a closed mid-level low will be
carved out as we move into Sunday night and early next week.
However, they disagree on location and progressiveness of this
feature. Will continue to keep the forecast dry for now with low
confidence in the Sunday into Monday portion of the forecast.
There is better confidence that a surge a cooler air will move
into the region Monday night into Tuesday.




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