Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171952
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF
FRONT AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET/LARGER SCALE ASCENT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG DRY LINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
DURING THIS TIME....WITH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOCATED
SOUTH OF AREA...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF FRONT/SURFACE HEATING WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NICE WARM UP EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT LEAST LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SOUTH OF MAIN UPPER LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  72  53  76 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   46  72  52  76 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   45  73  52  75 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   37  72  48  78 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   40  69  45  73 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   41  70  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  72  51  75 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   40  73  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
F10   45  71  52  75 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   48  73  53  76 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






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