Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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293
FXUS64 KTSA 270738
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
238 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing pre-frontal low-level warm air advection has resulted
in scattered showers/isolated thunder from western OK into parts
of northeast OK. Hi-res models suggest this activity will linger
into the early morning hours...with the better chances shifting
into parts of northwest AR later this morning. There may be a
break in the scattered convection for much of the afternoon...with
additional storms possible late tonight/evening as the cold front
sags to near I-44. Given the available moisture and hot conditions
south of the front...a few downbursts will be possible.

Will keep the current heat advisory going as is. A few spots could
flirt with excessive heat warning criteria...but confidence isn`t
high enough to upgrade the advisory.

Storm chances will persist Thursday night and into Friday as the
front gradually sags to near the Red River. Most locations will
see a significant break in heat...although could push heat
advisory criteria once again for parts of far southeast OK. Will
let the day shift take another look at this.

An extended period of "cooler" weather is expected through the
weekend and into much of next week as the souther Plains remains
under northwesterly/broadly cyclonic upper flow. The bulk of any
precipitation should mostly remain west of the area...although
there are some hints from the ECMWF that chances increase later
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  91  70 /  30  40  20  10
FSM   98  78  93  73 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   98  76  92  72 /  20  40  30  10
BVO   94  71  89  65 /  40  30  20  10
FYV   89  73  86  64 /  40  40  30  10
BYV   91  72  86  66 /  40  40  20  10
MKO   94  76  90  69 /  30  40  30  10
MIO   91  73  87  67 /  40  30  20  10
F10   98  74  90  70 /  30  40  30  10
HHW   98  76  95  74 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-060-
     064>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18



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