Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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843 FXUS64 KTSA 260230 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 930 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Update mainly is for adding tornado watch 311 which will include most of NE OK and far NW AR. Bulk of storm coverage is expected to stay north of I 40 tonight, though isolated to widely scattered storms that develop across SE OK and WC AR will still have severe potential. Made some adjustments to PoPs through 06 based on expected coverage, and just a few minor tweaks to PoPs in the 06-12z time frame. Overnight temperatures look reasonable at this time. Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM already sent && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area wide. The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these events. By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily thunderstorm chances continuing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The main focus this TAF period is to time potential for storm impacts at the TAF sites this evening and overnight. Per latest HRRR and WoFS, TEMPO groups were used where probs were greater for storm impacts near the KS/MO borders. This would include the KBVO, KXNA and KROG TAF sites. Storm potential was also higher at KMLC per model data, so a TEMPO was used there also. There may also be a period of MVFR cigs as well during the overnight. A front will push thru on Sunday, with conditions at all sites returning to VFR with gusty winds veering to the W/SW. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 89 62 87 / 50 0 0 0 FSM 73 91 66 89 / 40 20 20 0 MLC 72 91 64 89 / 30 0 10 0 BVO 67 88 58 86 / 60 10 0 0 FYV 69 87 61 85 / 50 20 10 0 BYV 68 88 61 84 / 50 30 10 0 MKO 71 90 62 85 / 30 0 0 0 MIO 67 86 59 83 / 60 10 10 0 F10 71 91 61 86 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 71 89 65 89 / 50 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30