604
FXUS63 KBIS 261143
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost remains possible early this morning north central North
  Dakota.

- Showers become likely (~60-80 percent chance) over most
  locations from west to east today into this evening.
  Thunderstorms also possible, some of which may have small hail
  and gusty winds.

- Precipitation chances remain over much of the area Monday,
  with dry conditions Tuesday into early Wednesday.

- Precipitation chances return late Wednesday, continuing
  through the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Rain showers continue to gradually move into and develop over
western portions of the area. Over the far north central,
temperatures in the mid 30s are occurring, so will leave the
frost advisory in place. Only minimal changes have been needed.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Latest surface analysis places low along the Manitoba/Ontario
border, with high over the Central Rockies. Upper level analysis
shows low stacked over its respective surface feature, with
weak ridging near the west coast. A variety of short waves noted
in the flow upstream from our area, with the closest one now
pushing from western into central Montana. A few light showers
well ahead of the wave are starting to work their way through
western portions of North Dakota. Elsewhere over our area, frost
advisory still remains in effect over far north central North
Dakota where temperatures have dipped into the mid 30s per
latest Rolla observation. A few patches of fog have also
developed over various parts of the area as wind has gone light
to calm over most locations.

For today, aforementioned wave continues its approach and
deepens, with showers becoming more numerous from west to east
across the area today. Some thunderstorms are expected, with a
few possibly becoming strong with small hail/gusty winds with
marginal instability/deep layer shear. Wave continues to move
east tonight, with precipitation tapering off over the west,
possibly continuing through the night over parts of central
North Dakota/James River Valley.

On Monday, aforementioned upper low to the northeast opens up
and starts wrapping into the flow of another low closing off to
its east. As it drops south, it will bring additional chances
for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to much of our
area.

Upper ridge passes over for Tuesday into early Wednesday,
bringing a period of dry conditions. Ridge pushes east late
Wednesday as an upper low passes over the Canadian Rockies
resulting in active southwesterly flow over our area. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase substantially from west to east
overnight as the initial wave with the aforementioned system
passes through. Precipitation chances then continue near daily
through the end of the week as the upper low moves through the
central part of the Prairie Provinces, and various waves rotate
through our area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Numerous rain showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will spread from west to east over western and central North
Dakota today into this evening. Localized visibility reductions
to IFR/MVFR will be possible in the heavier precipitation. In
addition to the precipitation, patchy fog this morning over much
of the area may lead to localized IFR/MVFR visibility. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected until late tonight when some low
clouds may move into parts of north central North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ003>005-013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS