330
FXUS63 KBIS 051955
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwesterly winds will continue into this evening
  across much of North Dakota. The strongest winds today are
  expected in northern North Dakota with gusts to 65 mph.

- Breezy to windy conditions to remain through Thursday, mainly
  in northern and eastern portions, with gusts to 45 mph.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures with mostly dry
  weather through this weekend.

- A warming trend could then be found next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Stacked low in southern Canada continues to bring strong winds
across the area this afternoon. A 700 mb jet max has been the
focus for the strongest winds so far today. This has been in
northwestern North Dakota, although is forecast to move across
the north through the evening mainly along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. Thus have issued a High Wind Warning for
these areas through much of this evening. Sustained winds in
these area look to be over 40 mph, while wind gusts of 55 to 65
MPH could be found. The remainder of the CWA still sees enough
winds to maintain the Wind Advisory with gusts to 55 MPH and
perhaps an isolated 60 MPH gust. The overall wave could still
bring an isolated shower through this evening across the CWA.
Instability still looks to be low an on a diminishing trend thus
left out mention of thunder through this evening. Strong winds
will remain aloft through tonight, although nocturnal inversions
should help diminish winds overnight. Dry conditions are also
expected with low temperatures in the mid 40s west to mid 50s
east. Strong northwest flow looks to linger for Thursday as the
upper low moves eastward. The gradient lessens slightly at the
surface, with the upper level winds also diminishing through the
day. Before this fully diminishes there still could be some near
to advisory level winds in the north and east, especially if
some the afternoon winds are higher than current NBM forecast.
Will let the current wind highlight play out then evaluate the
need for an advisory for tomorrow. Otherwise this northwest flow
for tomorrow looks dry with high temperatures in the mid 60s to
mid 70s for most areas. Friday then looks to start out in a
zonal flow pattern. A cold front could then push out of Canada
and across the area in the afternoon and evening. Perhaps some
breezy winds and a few showers and thunderstorms could be found
as a result. High temperatures could be near normal ahead of
this front as well.

This weekend still has a little bit of variability and dependent
on where a cut off low and brief ridging sets up across the
region. Areas closer to this low would be cooler with a chance
of showers, while areas more in the ridge would be slightly
warmer with less chances for precipitation. Right now the NBM
looks to favor cooler than normal temperatures this week with
limited chances for precipitation. Clusters then indicate either
ridging or flat ridging to start next week. This would indicate
a warming pattern may return to the area, which is also
included in the NBM forecast temperatures. More flat ridging
across the area could return chances for showers and
thunderstorms. NBM has at least slight PoPs right now to account
for this. CSU-MLP is currently showing minimal chances for
severe weather to start next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR and very windy conditions are expected today, with VFR and
breezy to windy conditions tonight into Thursday. Strong
northwest winds with gusts 40 to 50 knots are expected today
across most sites. VFR FEW to SCT clouds will also be found. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this
afternoon, although confidence was not high enough to place in
TAFs at this time. Tonight, winds diminish to more breezy
conditions while VFR also remains. These winds may increase
again for Thursday, although not as high as today. VFR
conditions also look to remain on Thursday. LLWS is
possible tonight into Thursday but left it out for now except in
the KJMS area.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ001>005-
009>013.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin