Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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569 FXUS63 KDVN 170051 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 751 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog appears to be a growing threat heading into the overnight hours. - Highs temperatures warming into the 80s Friday through Monday. - Depending on where a developing storm track lays out, it could be a potentially wet pattern across the region next week with several rounds of heavy rain possible. && .Update... Issued at 751 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Looking at radar and observations, the front which was supposed to be moving southeast tonight, is actually become stationary, and perhaps is lifting a bit north. Dewpoint temperatures remain in the lower 60s over our southeast 1/2, and without dry advection tonight, we are looking at a potential dense fog event, beginning near the front, and settling southeast into Illinois with time. For now, I`ve updated grids and the HWO, as well as graphics, to include a more significant threat for dense fog. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 At 2 PM, scattered showers and isolated storms were located east of a line from Ottumwa to The Quad Cities to Freeport Illinois. A cold front sits along a line from Ottumwa to Fairfield to Dubuque. Temperatures ranged from 71 degrees at Burlington to 77 degrees at Monticello with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. In the near term, a cold front will push to the east of the area and into eastern Illinois by 00 UTC on Friday. The threat for scattered showers and storms will continue ahead of the front but will quickly come to an end by 00 UTC Friday. There may be an uptick in thunderstorms late this afternoon and into this evening. Think that the severe threat has been diminishing with weak mid level lapse rates. Skies will clear from west to east this evening with winds becoming light variable. This may lead to the development of fog with some low level moisture in place but confidence is low in this occurring. On Friday, a 500 mb shortwave trough will pass to our south and east through the day. Models have continued to trend southward with chances of precipitation with 20 percent chance of showers in the southern third of McDonough County. Expect partly sunny skies south of Interstate 80 in northwest Illinois with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The Upper Midwest will remain under the influence of the northern jet stream as trough swings across the northern Plains with downstream ridging in place across the region. This is leading to a drier forecast through the weekend with warmer temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday night through the remainder of the period, the flow aloft will transition to southwesterly flow as troughing in the northern and southern streams phase. This will allow a series of embedded shortwave energy to lift across the area and bring chances for showers and storms each day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Rain and thunderstorms have ended/moved east of all TAF sites this evening, with a VFR evening in store for all locations. A slow moving front will wash out over the area tonight, with light winds in all locations after sunset. The remaining higher dewpoint air near BRL will lead to potential morning fog. There are chances 20-40% that this could be dense fog there in the 10z to 14z window. We will watch that carefully this evening, for a LIFR period to include in future forecasts. For now, will opt for a temporary 1SM IFR period at BRL and a 3SM period at MLI. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Changes: None. Discussion... Most tributary rivers in eastern Iowa have crested and are slowly dropping. The exception is the lower Iowa River where the crest is currently working its way through Wapello and Oakville. On the Mississippi, Gladstone and Burlington will begin a broad crest just above flood stage that will continue through Friday. After a relatively dry weekend, the active weather pattern will return next week with the potential for several rounds of rain. While rainfall amounts continue to be somewhat uncertain, any heavy rainfall would prolong the high river levels on tributary rivers in eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and on the Mississippi River. The longer range outlook through the end of the month has a 40-42 percent probability of above normal rainfall. This outlook suggests the potential for additional improvement with the severe drought conditions across eastern Iowa. Unfortunately, this outlook would also suggest that river levels could remain higher than normal. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ UPDATE...Ervin SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...08