Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 171727
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1127 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The latest sfc analysis was indicating a near quasi-stationary warm
front undulating from acrs the east central Dakotas, southeastward
acrs north central IA and down along the eastern I80 corridor of
the local CWA and into central IND. Aloft, a Rex Block type pattern
continued to shift east acrs the central CONUS, with the ridge
portion pushing toward the mid and upper MS RVR Valley, while cut-
off upper low spiraled acrs western TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Today...As the upper ridge locates overhead, the warm front to get a
push along and north of the CWA By midday. Thus the DVN CWA to
get fully engulfed by warming southwesterly LLVL flow this
afternoon. Looking at projected warm draw and what happened to the
southwest of the CWA yesterday, will bump up temps by at least a
few degrees or more. Will side with the warmer NAM high temps, or
even go a few degrees warmer than those values. So will be
advertising highs in the low to mid 60s in the far north...upper
60s to around 70 along I80 from the MS RVR on west, and the lower
70s in the southwest. Record highs at all major climate sites for
Feb 17th. This warmth with limited mixing depth up to H915 MB and
base of inversion. Any deeper mixing and fcst highs will still be
too cool, but don`t want to go too crazy with the warming
potential just yet. With the northwest upper flow shifting east to
lee of upper ridge, expect much less cirrus today than yesterday,
so full sunshine also to help the warmer temp idea.

Will touch upon enhanced fire threat in the HWO south of I80 and
especially south of a Sigourney IA, to Burlington, and to north of
Macomb IL line. Plentiful dry grass fuels, unseasonably mild temps
and low RH the primary drivers, with southwest winds of 10-20 MPH
being the limiting factor of a much higher fire danger. If the winds
where much higher of 20-30+ MPH, there probably would be Red Flag
Warning criteria met. Will still have to watch for deeper mixing and
resultant sfc DPT/RH bombs this afternoon, as well as gustier winds.

Tonight...Ridge-riding cyclone into the northwestern GRT LKS to
sweep a dry frontal passage through the CWA from the northwest after
Midnight and into early Sat morning. Despite a convergent boundary
in the area, don`t buy the 00z GFS and NAM`s areas of fog in the
north toward daybreak Sat, they appear too moist in the sfc layer
and probably too cold.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Saturday and Sunday, though slightly cooler than today, will provide
an extreme example of pleasant February weather in this region.
Highs both days should reach the upper 50s north to mid 60s south,
and will combine with winds under 10 mph. This is not only normals
for  weekend of Late April weather, but with the lack of stong winds
would make that a notably pleasant late April weekend.

Monday, low pressure will lift into the Dakotas, drawing a narrowing
moisture tongue along a front through Iowa. The best forcing, and
moisture look to impact locations farther west into central Iowa,
but the narrowing moisture does look to at least bring a strong
chance for rainfall to the Iowa side of the river, before
diminishing into Illinois toward Tuesday morning. The warm draw
ahead of this low will bring another very mild day Monday, as
we`re fully into the warm sector. Highs well into the mid 60s are
expected, with any sun potentially bringing 70 degree readings.
Like previous days, these will possibly set record highs for the
date.

The mid level moisture, and with it rainfall chances, will arrive in
the west in the afternoon, and very slowly will shift east. A dry
slot, combined with downslope air from the west, will arrive
Tuesday morning, bringing clearing, and a return to widespread 60s
just under record levels. This air will last through Wednesday,
with highs possibly setting another day of records at that time.

Thursday into Friday, strong upper wave is forecast by both GFS and
EC to move through the upper Midwest. This is likely to move north
of Iowa, or over Iowa. In any case, another warm sector should
impact our CWA, with highs remaining in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Rain chance will increase as well, though we have little confidence
in timing or amounts as of yet.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/19 with a dry frontal
passage occurring after 06z/18. The models are suggesting a period
of MVFR/IFR conditions along/behind the frontal passage. This was
not included in the 18z TAFs as the models are probably too moist
in the boundary layer.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Record Highs for today February 17th...

Moline.........63 in 2011
Cedar Rapids...66 in 1981
Dubuque........61 in 1981
Burlington.....67 in 2011

Record Highs for February 18th...

Moline.........63 in 1913
Cedar Rapids...65 in 1981
Dubuque........61 in 1981
Burlington.....65 in 1913

Record highs for February 19th...

Burlington.......70 in 1930
Cedar Rapids.....68 in 1930
Dubuque..........63 in 1930
Moline...........69 in 1930

Record highs for February 20th...

Burlington.......67 in 1983
Cedar Rapids.....60 in 1981 (and prev years)
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........65 in 1930

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...Ervin/12


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.