431
FXUS62 KJAX 061126
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
726 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Southwesterly steering flow will bee established today ahead of
an approaching cool front. The breezy flow will promote enhanced
mixing and boost ambient temps up into the mid to upper 90s today
with peak heat index readings from 100-105F across NE FL and
coastal SE GA while a bit drier mix out across inland SE GA will
limit "feels like" temps to the mid/upper 90s.

While hot temperatures will be the widespread sensible weather
concern of the day, there will also be scattered to numerous showers
and potentially a few strong pulse thunderstorms near the coast
this afternoon.

A "dry" slot (PWATs ~1.50) will limit coverage inland but airmass
showers and isolated storms will still be possible areawide this
afternoon. Meanwhile, pooled moisture and instability along the
pinned Atlantic sea breeze will enhance potential of a few strong
thunderstorms capable of downburst winds near 40-60 mph (DCAPE up
to 1000 j/kg), small hail, and locally heavy downpours. Any storm
of significance is mostly to occur between I-95 and the beaches
around 4-7 PM and there could be a few decent pulses given the
plethora of instability. Further outflow interaction may continue
convection beyond dusk and into the early evening before fading
away and drifting into the adjacent Atlantic waters.

Tonight after convection has fizzled out, the only thing left will
be mid and high clouds debris from earlier convection upstream
tracking into the region from the NW. Potentially for a bit of
patchy for across the Suwannee Valley again late tonight but dense
fog is unlikely. Lows will trend a bit warmer with temps falling to
the low and mid 70s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)

A frontal boundary in place Friday morning brings chances for
some morning showers and thunderstorms increasing in the
afternoon mainly for NE FL with SE GA having greater chances more
towards the coast. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s cooling into the upper 60s overnight for SE GA behind the
cold front while NE FL will see temperatures in the 70s.
Conditions dry out by Saturday as high pressure fills in behind
the cold front as it moves south through the region. Mostly sunny
skies with temperatures in the 90s during the day cooling into the
upper 60s inland overnight keeping a little warmer along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)

Sunday will be another dry sunny day with temperatures in the
upper 90s for NE FL, hanging out in the mid to upper 90s for SE
GA. Monday starts the beginning of what looks to be another rainy
week with another cold front making its way in by Monday morning
from the Northwest. The front looks to hang around the FL GA
border towards the end of the week. Highest chances for
precipitation will be in the afternoon though starting tuesday
chances of precipitation in the morning will be around 30-40% each
day. Temperatures at the beginning of the week will be in the low
to mid 90s, cooling into the upper 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conds at the moment with basically SKC at all TAF sites,
expect strong diurnal heating this morning with Cu field
developing in the 4000-5000 ft range by the 14-16Z time frame, but
any TSRA activity will hold off until the East Coast sea breeze
kicks off around 20Z and have continued trends of TEMPO groups at
JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ with best chances at SGJ in the 21-24Z time frame
with lesser chances in the JAX metro TAF sites and even some
eventual outflow TSRA chances towards sunset at SSI, while
activity this afternoon/evening should mainly remain just to the
east of GNV and have continued to leave out mention of TSRA.
Conditions become VFR with lingering convective debris clouds
aloft after sunset this evening with only slight chances of light
fog at GNV/VQQ towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the AM hours with fair chances for
convective impacts, especially at the coastal airfields this
afternoon through the early evening. Hot temperatures and
southwesterly winds are forecast, which will keep the sea breeze
from emerging inland. Thunderstorm development is most likely
along the pinned sea breeze between 20z-01z this afternoon and
evening. Gusty and chaotic outflows, lightning, and reduced vsby
due to heavy downpours are most probable at KSGJ, KCRG, KJAX and
KSSI. Outside of t`storm influences, winds will favor a southwest
direction at 8-13 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible.
Convective activity will diminish and shift offshore this
evening. Significant fog development isn`t anticipated may develop
toward dawn along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.MARINE...

Breezy southerly winds will develop across the waters ahead of an
approaching cool front set to arrive on Friday. The sea breeze
will be pinned at the beach this afternoon, enhancing thunderstorm
chances in the nearshore waters through the evening. The
aforementioned front will push into the waters Saturday and stall
before dissipating through Sunday. Winds will turn offshore once
again early next week as another cool front approaches from the
north and this front may end up stalling across the local waters
through the middle of next week.

RIP CURRENTS: Low-end moderate risk this afternoon and again
Friday due to the pinned sea breeze along the NE FL coast. Lesser
(Low) Risk expected due to the offshore flow at SE GA beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites on
Thursday and Friday:

 TodayJune 7
              ----------------------
Jacksonville    99/1985    100/1993
Gainesville     100/1927   99/1985
Alma, GA        101/1985   98/1993
Craig Airport   99/2011    96/1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  93  68 /  20  20  20  10
SSI  91  75  92  73 /  40  30  30  10
JAX  96  72  95  71 /  50  20  40  10
SGJ  95  73  95  73 /  60  30  50  20
GNV  95  71  94  70 /  30  10  40  10
OCF  97  72  94  73 /  30  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$