872
FXUS62 KJAX 260723
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

With calm winds and clear skies, patchy to areas of fog expected
early this morning, especially over inland southeast GA. Fog should
dissipate by about 8 AM.

Weak surface high pressure ridge will continue to stay south of the
area today while drifting south. Aloft, increased mid to upper
level ridging builds in from the west. For Today, mostly sunny to
occasional partly cloudy skies and above seasonal temps (about 6 deg
above) in the lower to mid 90s are expected. Record high is possible
at Craig Airport today. Heat indices will rise to about 100-102 in
several areas, mainly eastern zones. There appears to be enough
moisture, with PWATS near 1.6 inches, over the eastern zones later
this afternoon and early evening for isolated showers and storms.
This convection should be relatively brief given the convection will
be hindered by dry air aloft. Main area of POPs near 15-20 percent
is just west of I-95 to about Highway 301 and timing from about 4 PM
to 9 PM. This latter area is where the Atlantic sea breeze is
expected to push inland late today.

Tonight, an isolated shower or storm in the evening as mentioned
above but otherwise becoming mostly clear overnight. Possibly
a greater chance of patchy fog over the south and western zones, as
well as low stratus, mainly based on HREF guidance. Low in the
upper 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Ridging extending across the GOMEX sinks southward as troughing
swings through the Great Lakes pushing a surface cold front through
the Deep South. Southwesterly flow develops ahead of the front
keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the coast. This will allow
for hot temperatures to extend all the way to the beaches. Highs
will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees
with the highest daytime temperatures focused along the I-95
corridor each afternoon. Lingering subsidence and mid-level dry air
will help limit convection across much of the area on Monday. Pre-
frontal showers and storms will attempt to move into inland SE GA
late Monday afternoon into evening. Mid-level dry air will yield
DCAPE values around 1,000 J/kg combined with ample instability and
decent deep layer shear creating an environment favorable for wet
microbursts. Convection that survives could be strong and capable of
producing gusty winds (40-50 mph). The cold front moves into SE GA
late Monday night and shifts into NE FL Tuesday morning. On Tuesday,
convection will likely be confined to the frontal boundary and its
interactions along the sea breezes as the front shifts into central
FL by Tuesday night. Dynamics don`t look as impressive as previous
model runs but a stronger storm could be possible along boundary
interactions. Drier and "cooler" air filters into the area as
northwest flow develops in the wake of the front.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

The front then shifts into central FL on Wednesday and stalls
Thursday into Friday focusing convection to areas mainly south of I-
10. Drier and `cooler` air remains over SE GA in the wake of the
front as a high pressure builds to the northwest of the region. The
drier air mass will bring a return of cool morning lows in the 60s
for the latter half of next week. Highs will then range from the
upper 80s in SE GA to the low 90s in north-central FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions prevail at this time. Some low flight conditions
over inland southeast GA at 05z, where some rain fell on Saturday.
With light winds and clearing skies, some mist and possible low
stratus can be expected in the more prone areas, i.e. at VQQ. For
JAX, CRG, and SGJ, and GNV will continue to monitor whether further
reductions in vsby are needed but currently low/moderate confidence
by about 09z-12z. Then, VFR clouds should then prevail after 13Z.
Rain chances are lower today than Saturday so no mention of VCSH
or VCTS is in the TAFs. There is an outside chance (about 15%) of
a shower or storm near JAX and SSI late today but subsequent TAFs
can address that if needed. Winds will be light westerly after
sunrise, with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary push onshore before
noon, with surface winds shifting to easterly around 10 knots at
SGJ after 16Z and southeast around 10 knots at SSI by 18Z. These
onshore winds will then progress inland across the Duval County
terminals by 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Fairly benign weather for the marine zones with winds of less than
15 kt and seas of less than 3 ft. However, some guidance suggests
sustained 15 kt south winds by tonight, just off the coast, given
the fairly strong land/sea temp gradient across the area. Does not
look like Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) is met at this time. A
similar setup in winds Monday night. Another chance of t-storms
moving into the area waters from the northwest by Monday evening so
boaters will need to be aware of that. A weak cool front moves into
the area Tuesday and Wednesday and stalls to our south mid week. At
this time no advisory or exercise caution looks likely.

Rip Currents: Seas at nearshore buoys are just below 2 ft and
will be close to that most of the day. Dominant wave periods of about
7-9 seconds. Onshore flow may still support a low-end moderate
rip current risk for northeast FL beaches today, while a low risk is
placed in for southeast GA beaches. Little overall change in sea
state on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate river flooding is still forecast toward the end of next
week. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at
Atkinson and portions of the Suwannee are expected into Minor
Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  71  92  72 /  10  10  30  30
SSI  91  74  91  73 /  10   0  10  40
JAX  95  71  94  72 /  10   0  10  20
SGJ  92  73  93  73 /  10   0   0  20
GNV  95  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  96  69  94  72 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$