553
FXUS62 KJAX 251828
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024


...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH OF I-10...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A westerly flow along with mostly sunny skies this afternoon have
prompted deeper mixing and temperatures have soared to low and mid
90s with peak heat index values pushing to near triple-digits,
particularly right at the coast. Given the holiday weekend and
outdoor festivities, heat-related impacts and illness will be more
of risk - stay cool and hydrated!

In addition to the heat, there will be increasing rain and storm
chances this afternoon as moisture accompanying a shortwave drops
southeastward into SE GA and then continues into NE FL this evening.
As it does so, an associated MCS to the northwest will push out
sufficient outflow and should initiate new convection to the west
which will drift southeastward into inland SE GA around 2-4 pm. The
latest CAM guidance has trended a bit more energetic with the MCS
propagation, with potential for the system to reach the I-10
corridor around 6-8 PM. There an additional interaction with the sea
breezes should expand t`storm chances to 30-50% along the I-95
corridor through the evening. Embedded storms associated with the
MCS could become strong or marginally severe. The primary threat
with any robust storms will be strong, localized outflow wind or
downburst gusts around 40-60 MPH. Anticipate storms to generally
track southeastward around 15-20 mph and eventually fade while
shifting into the Atlantic late this evening. Given the motion,
flooding threat will be quite low; however, nuisance ponding in poor
drainage areas remains possible due to brief, heavy downpours.

Tonight, diurnal convection will fade with perhaps a few trailing
showers through about midnight. Cloud cover will scatter to the
south, leaving mostly clear skies through the early hours Sunday.
Under the mostly clear sky, patchy fog will be possible again and
focus toward the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA areas but shallow
fog may develop wherever sufficient downpours occur this afternoon
and evening. Lows tonight will hover in the low 70s inland and mid
70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

With an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico,
west- southwest steering flow will be in place, before a cold
front begins to move in from the northwest late Monday. Hot and
mostly dry conditions are expected, with a few showers possible as
the Gulf coast sea breeze meets up with the Atlantic sea breeze
along the east coast during the late afternoon into early evening
on Sunday. Otherwise, the next chance of showers will be from late
Monday afternoon into evening along the northern SE GA counties
ahead of an incoming cold front nears the area.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with Sunday seeing the
warmer daytime temperatures. The highest temperatures will be
focused toward the I-95 corridor as daytime temperatures will
range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

On Tuesday a cold front will make its way the area, bringing
scattered showers and storms to spread from SE GA and south to NE
FL. The possibility for stronger storms Tuesday afternoon as some
passing shortwaves aloft will bring some instability and
additional lift to the area. By Wednesday the front will shift to
central FL and eventually stalling over central FL, bringing
chances of convection over the north central FL counties, with the
potential for scattered showers and storms on Thursday and
Friday.

Temperatures will begin to `cool` a bit after the cold
front`s passage. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool
morning lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs
will then range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the mid 90s in
north-central FL. |

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Diurnal cumulus has develop ahead of a disturbance that will drop
southeastward into the region this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm impacts are possible at most airfields, however
confidence is highest for sites along the I-95 corridor north of
KSGJ. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will persist with
increasing cirrus being pushed out from upwind storms. West winds
will be dominant at inland airfields through the afternoon while
coastal sites shift ESE to SE with the slow-moving Atlantic sea
breeze that should stall near the I-95. By midnight, convection will
fizzle and clouds will scatter out allowing patchy fog to develop
inland. Any fog that develops will quickly erode after sunrise with
VFR conditions and light winds thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.MARINE...Tranquil boating conditions are expected through the
weekend with high pressure in the area and prevailing offshore flow.
Afternoon sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon. The
main concern will be the potential for thunderstorms mainly during
the early evening hours tonight which could contain strong winds.
Storm chances lessen Sunday and Monday before being renewed by an
incoming cold front Tuesday.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk continues through Monday due to
increased crowds at area beaches. Despite low surf (less than 2
feet) and weak swell, rip currents are still possible especially
near piers and jetties.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Moderate river flooding due to `backwater` is forecast to begin
next week from Thursday to Friday for the Santa Fe at Three Rivers
Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin remains
in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are expected to
rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  71  92 /  20  10   0  30
SSI  74  90  73  92 /  30  10   0  10
JAX  72  94  70  94 /  40  10   0  10
SGJ  73  92  71  94 /  40   0   0   0
GNV  69  94  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
OCF  70  94  68  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$