443
FXUS62 KJAX 270746
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
346 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA....
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A transition day begins as the sfc ridge axis will be south of the
area today while a cool front moves in from the northwest later
tonight. Some low stratus will be possible over the western zones
as well as patchy fog which will dissipate by 8-9 AM. Deep layer
flow is southwest averaging about 15-20 kt but increasing to near
25 kt as shortwave troughing moves into AL and parts of GA by
late aftn and early evening. Anticipate scattered to numerous
showers and storms convection to move into our northwest zones by
the 22z-03z time frame, as suggested by CAM model solutions. The
environment is conducive to a few strong to possibly severe
storms with marginal shear values of 30 kt, DCAPE of about 1000
J/kg, MLCAPE of around 1500 to near 2500 J/kg. Strong to damaging
wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible. SPC has placed
the far northwest part of the forecast area in a slight risk of
severe storms, with marginal risk down to FL/GA state line. Otherwise,
it will be a hot and breezy day with southwest to west winds of
about 10-15 mph, with Atlantic sea breeze having a tougher time
pushing inland compared to yesterday. Max temps in the lower to
mid 90s, but fortunately dewpoints will mix lower in the aftn and
keep heat indices in check to below 102. Should see increased
mid/high clouds coming in from the northwest and west late today.

Tonight, as mentioned, scattered to numerous showers and storms
should be ongoing over southeast GA this evening. As the shortwave
trough transverses the area, the semi-organized convection, possibly
in short segments occasionally generated by outflow boundaries,
will shift east to southeast. The airmass will remain unstable as
dewpoints will be around 70 or lower 70s. This should further
support convection persisting into the overnight hours and pushing
into northeast FL near and after midnight. Isolated strong to
severe storms may persist through around midnight mainly over
southeast GA, but a couple of strong storms possible around the
Suwannee Valley area overnight. Lows will be muggy in the lower to
mid 70s with light westerly or southwest winds continuing
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A cold front over northeast FL will gradually shift and stall over
north-central FL on Wednesday as high pressure ridging builds
south across the MS River Valley. Showers and storms will be
ongoing along the frontal boundary Tuesday morning. Dry, "cool"
air filtering in from the northwest in the wake of the front will
mostly suppress convection over SE GA on Tuesday. Best moisture
and lift will remain along the frontal boundary focusing
convection mainly south of the I-10 corridor. A few showers and
storms may form along the pinned Atlantic sea breeze in the
afternoon with better chances along the NE FL coast due to the
front interacting with the sea breeze. Rain wanes Tuesday night
with the loss of daytime heating and the front weakening. Dry
airmass builds across the area with PWATs < 1 inch. Mostly dry
conditions prevail on Wednesday with a few showers possible in
north-central FL along the lingering frontal boundary. Hot days
continue with highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices
will be around 100 degrees in NE FL on Tuesday. The drier air will
help keep heat indices below 100 on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Moisture gradually returns with developing southwesterly flow on
Thursday. A frontal boundary stalled over NE FL on Thursday will
shift southward Friday into the weekend as high pressure builds to
the north and into the mid-Atlantic states this weekend. Rain will
primarily be in NE FL on Thursday where the best moisture is and
lingering lift from the frontal boundary. Passing upper shortwaves
and an increase in moisture will lead to isolated to scattered
showers and storms area-wide on Friday. Pattern returns to sea-
breeze driven convection for the weekend with high pressure
ridging over the SE US. Onshore flow develops over the weekend
with highest rain chances focused along the I-75 corridor where
the sea breezes will likely collide. Highs will then range from
the upper 80s in SE GA to the low 90s in north-central FL.
Overnight lows will be "cool" in the 60s

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR prevails at this time, but some potential for low stratus 0clouds
to filter in from the west, moving toward GNV and possibly VQQ by
12z. Otherwise, after any stratus dissipates by 13z-14z, VFR
clouds through today with increasing mid to high clouds in the
aftn as a weak cool front moves into the region. Scattered deep
convection expected to develop over southeast GA and then shift
east to southeast late aftn and into the late evening and
overnight hours. The only site where we introduced a low prob of
convection was at SSI for late in the TAF period. Further additions
will likely needed in the 06z-12z time period when convective
debris clouds and VCSH or VCTS. Sfc winds will be light southwest
through 12z and increase to about 10G16kt by late morning and
early aftn. Atlantic sea breeze will impact SGJ, CRG, and SSI
this aftn, later occurrence than on prior days due to breezier
west-southwest winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

West to southwest winds initially today but will shift to southeast
and south during the aftn at 10-15 kt. Seas remain low near 2 ft
per buoys but will rise up slightly later today as winds ramp up
further. Sustained sfc winds near 15 kt possible by evening, with
a weak cool front and upper level disturbance approaching from
the northwest. Some t-storm activity possible late tonight and on
Tuesday. The front will move south of the area by Wednesday but
will stall and become diffuse thereafter. Winds will be onshore
later in the week as high pressure ridge builds in from the north.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk again today with surf possibly
a tad higher but overall little difference from yesterday. At
least initially, up to 3 wave groups noted in buoys this morning,
with a long period swell near 14 seconds that is very small. Low
risk is in place for southeast GA beaches. Longshore current
likely weak from the south. Similar conditions appear for
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Moderate river flooding is forecast end of the week on the Santa
Fe at Three Rivers Estates, just touching the moderate category.
The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at Atkinson
(but coming down) and portions of the Suwannee are expected near
Minor Flood stage this week. Minor flooding will be possible
towards mid to late for the lower Santa Fe River near the gauge
at Hildreth.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  71  90  67 /  50  70  20   0
SSI  91  75  90  72 /  10  40  20  10
JAX  94  73  93  69 /  10  20  40  10
SGJ  92  75  90  72 /   0  30  40  20
GNV  93  73  93  68 /   0  30  50  10
OCF  93  72  92  70 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$