991
FXUS62 KJAX 270008
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
808 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 07Z Monday at the
regional terminals. Periods of MVFR visibilities are expected
during the overnight and predawn hours on Monday at VQQ. Low
status ceilings may advect inland from the northeast Gulf of
Mexico towards the Interstate 75 corridor during the predawn and
early morning hours on Monday, with potential impacts possible at
GNV after 09Z through around 13Z. Confidence was too low to
indicate anything other than scattered ceilings below 500 feet and
MVFR visibilities at this time. A period of low MVFR ceilings of
1,000-2,000 feet will be possible after sunrise at the inland
terminals, but confidence remains too low to indicate anything
other than scattered ceilings at this time. VFR conditions should
then prevail after 16Z at the regional terminals. Southeasterly
surface winds of 5-10 knots this evening will shift to southerly
while gradually weakening overnight, except at GNV, where west-
southwesterly winds of 5-10 knots will continue this evening
before diminishing after midnight. West-southwesterly surface
winds will increase shortly after sunrise on Monday, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots at the regional terminals by 17Z. The
Atlantic sea breeze boundary will be slower to develop on Monday
afternoon, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ
towards 19Z and southerly at SSI by 20Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Tonight, skies will clear and allow temps to fall into the upper 60s
to low 70s inland. Along the coast and St Johns River, temps will be
a bit warmer with lows in the mid 70s. Patchy to areas of fog will
be possible inland where winds calm. Possible that localized dense
fog develops across the lower Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor late
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

As an upper level ridge shifts out of the area, troughing
extending from the Great Lakes will bring a cold front into the
area from the northwest. Ahead of the front, southwest- west
steering flow will be in place, which should keep the Atlantic
sea breeze in check along the east coast Monday. Come late Monday
afternoon, chance of showers and storms will increase ahead of the
cold front, spreading from northern SE GA counties towards the
FL/GA border. With enough instability, as CAPE values will be near
1000 J/kg, along with decent deep layer shear will lead to a
favorable environment for wet microbursts, with gusts potentially
up to 40 to 50 mph for any storms that do develop. On Tuesday the
cold front will make its way through the area, bringing scattered
showers and storms along the front as it moves from SE GA into NE
FL.

With little cool air moving in the from the Atlantic, afternoon
temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s, warmest
temperatures expected along the I-95 corridor, particularly south
of the JAX metro. Heat Index values will get close to 100 degrees.
The same trend in temperature is expected to continue Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

As an upper level ridge shifts out of the area, troughing
extending from the Great Lakes will bring a cold front into the
area from the northwest. Ahead of the front, southwest- west
steering flow will be in place, which should keep the Atlantic
sea breeze in check along the east coast Monday. Come late Monday
afternoon, chance of showers and storms will increase ahead of the
cold front, spreading from northern SE GA counties towards the
FL/GA border. With enough instability, as CAPE values will be near
1000 J/kg, along with decent deep layer shear will lead to a
favorable environment for wet microbursts, with gusts potentially
up to 40 to 50 mph for any storms that do develop. On Tuesday the
cold front will make its way through the area, bringing scattered
showers and storms along the front as it moves from SE GA into NE
FL.

With little cool air moving in the from the Atlantic, afternoon
temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s, warmest
temperatures expected along the I-95 corridor, particularly south
of the JAX metro. Heat Index values will get close to 100 degrees.
The same trend in temperature is expected to continue Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

By Wednesday the front will be sitting over central FL, bringing
chances of showers and storms for locations south of the I-10
corridor. On Thursday and Friday, the front looks to lift
northward as a warm front, bringing an increase in showers and
storms from NE FL and into SE GA during the afternoon each day.

A `cooling` trend begins as high pressure builds in from the
northwest on Wednesday after the cold front`s passage. Morning
lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs will begin
in the 90s across the area on Wednesday and begin to trend
downward as Highs will get into the upper 80s for SE GA and the
lower 90s in NE FL from Thursday and into next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Tranquil boating conditions are expected through the weekend with
high pressure in the area and prevailing offshore flow. Afternoon
sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon. The main
concern will be the potential for thunderstorms mainly during the
early evening hours tonight which could contain strong winds.
Storm chances lessen Sunday and Monday before being renewed by an
incoming cold front Tuesday.

Rip currents: Moderate risk through Monday, primarily during the
afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze develops.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate river flooding is still forecast toward the end of this
week along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the Three
Rivers Estates gauge. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor
Flood stage at Atkinson and portions of the Suwannee are expected
into Minor Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  91 /   0  30  50  20
SSI  73  91  73  90 /   0  10  50  20
JAX  71  95  73  93 /   0   0  30  40
SGJ  71  94  73  91 /   0   0  20  40
GNV  67  94  72  93 /   0   0  10  50
OCF  69  93  72  93 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$