936
FXUS64 KOUN 051708
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will continue to push southward through the rest of
Oklahoma and western north Texas today.  Sometimes the wind shift
and drier air never reaches the lower terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
Despite modest dry air advection behind the front, with the recent
rainfall, evapotranspiration will certainly play a part in elevating
afternoon humidity, especially across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas.  However, don`t expect to see the ridiculous upper 70
to near 80 dewpoint temperatures like Tuesday afternoon. So it does
appear we will finally get at least one day without thunderstorms.

A southerly wind will return by this evening, but wind speeds are
expected to be light. With a mainly clear sky, it`s possible that
areas of fog (perhaps shallow ground fog) will develop. Another
cold front (weak) will begin to move into far northern Oklahoma by
sunrise Thursday.

The current Flood Watch goes through 7 am, but most of the heavy
rainfall will be south of the Red River by 4-5 am, so we will
likely be able to cancel the watch a few hours early.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The cold front Thursday is expected to be near I-40 during peak
heating.  Enough convergence/moisture pooling along the front may
result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.  Although
the low-level flow will be weak, there is expected to be modest flow
aloft. Could see a few strong storms, but storm coverage will
likely result in any storms dissipating by early evening.

Very warm 700mb temperatures are expected to overspread at least the
western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas Friday with return
flow.  This should result in mainly dry conditions.  A strong low-
level jet Friday night into Saturday may foster elevated convection.
Most of this should be north of Oklahoma, but there is a chance
some of this activity may develop across northern Oklahoma.

After a hot day Saturday, models agree on a better chance of storms
developing along the high terrain to our northwest. Storms are
expected to organize (MCS) and move across Oklahoma and perhaps
north Texas Saturday overnight/Sunday morning.

A little unsure after Sunday morning.  Models diverge on how far a
cold front may push into Texas Sunday into Monday.  It possible that
a strong enough front may limit additional chances Sunday night
into about Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR category is expected to prevail through the period. Generally
light north-northeasterly winds will continue to veer through the
day, becoming southerly at most sites near/after sunset. Towards
daybreak Thursday morning, a cold front is expected to push into
portions of northern Oklahoma. A return of northerly winds is
expected behind this feature.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  93  68  89 /   0  20  20  10
Hobart OK         68  98  68  94 /   0  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  96  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  92  65  95 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     65  88  64  87 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         65  92  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...34