634
FXUS63 KDDC 141902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight
  through Wednesday night.

- There is a marginal risk of severe storms tonight, with hail
  up to quarter size and 60 mph gusts.

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible along the Oklahoma
  state line Wednesday afternoon and evening, with hail to golf
  ball size.

- The warmest day so far this spring is expected Saturday, with
  highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A weak surface front over west central Kansas will be the focus
for evening t-storms. Instability is limited, so the storms will
only reach marginal severity, if severe at all, with strong
wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. A 35 kt low level jet will
help keep the storms going overnight even with the loss of
daytime heating, with a propagation to the east and southeast.
Expect the storms to slowly wind down over central Kansas
around sunrise or just after. The best chance of storms is along
and northeast of a line from Syracuse to Dodge City to Medicine
Lodge.

An upper level disturbance will approach the high plains
Wednesday. An associated cool front will move southward through
Hays, Garden City and Liberal through mid-day. Post frontal
upslope flow along the Raton Mesa in northeast New Mexico will
be the focus for afternoon t-storm development, with the mid
levels steering flow directing a storm cluster eastward along
the Oklahoma state line and southward from there. These storms
could be marginally severe with hail to quarter size and wind
gusts to 60 mph; but it is difficult to say whether Elkhart and
Liberal will be impacted or whether the cells will stay south
in Oklahoma. Out ahead of this storm cluster, more isolated
storms are possible over south central Kansas near an effective
frontal boundary, with hail as large as golf balls. How far
north these storms develop is still in question and this will
depend on the exact location of the effective front or outflow
boundary. This boundary may or may not end up being south of
the border in Oklahoma. Instability will be a lot weaker farther
north across the remainder of southwest Kansas due to north
winds and cooler temperatures. Some thunderstorms could move
into southwest Kansas from the Palmer Divide region of Colorado
Wednesday evening and night, but will probably weaken in the
process or possibly complete die off before impacting Kansas.
probabilistically, the various ensemble means only indicate
30-50% chances for .5" or more of rain across the southern tier
of counties in central and southwest Kansas through Wednesday
night, with lower chances to the north.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Drier weather can be expected starting Thursday and persisting
through at least Sunday as weak upper level ridging over the
Rockies slowly progresses eastward. The warmest temperatures of
the year are forecast for Saturday. Just how warm it gets
depends on the speed of a weak cold front due to arrive during
the day. There may be a narrow zone of downslope flow and heat
right ahead of the front where mid 90s are possible for
locations along the Oklahoma state line. But if the front is
faster than currently depicted by the various model ensemble
means, then highs would only be in the mid 80s (I-70) to lower
90s( Oklahoma state line). Given that any upper level troughing
will be over the northern plains, thunderstorms are not
expected along this front.

Upper level troughing is advertised to develop across the
western United States by early next week, resulting in lee
troughing and a return of rich low level moisture into central
Kansas. However, until sufficient forcing mechanisms for ascent
arrive over the plains, any instability that develops across
the plains will not be realized in the form of thunderstorms,
but rather the low level moisture would be trapped beneath a mid
level "lid" or capping inversion. Very warm to hot weather will
likely return for Monday. The earliest chance of thunderstorms
is Monday when the upper level troughing edges closer to the
plains. However, even if t-storms occur, the precipitation would
be isolated to scattered as opposed to a general rain.
Probabilistically, The various ensemble means only indicate 10%
chances or less of .5" or more of rain early next week.

Temperatures could soar into the upper 90s Monday across
southwest Kansas, which slightly cooler but humid conditions
farther east in central Kansas. It is too early to speculate
about isolated t-storm chances; but needless to say, given the
extreme instability that could be in place over central Kansas,
if isolated storms develop they would be severe. Next week we
will be entering the stormiest time of year climatologically for
central and southwest Kansas, with the last ten days of May
being the peak of the high-end severe weather season. In some
years this peak can extend well into June.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a convergence line
over west central Kansas around 01z and could impact KGCK
through 03z. The storms could affect KDDC and KHYS between 05
and 09z as the cells propagate southeastward, fueled by a 35 kt
low level jet. Winds will generally be 10-15 kts from the south
and southeast and then will become variable in vicinity of
t-storms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch