820
FXUS64 KBRO 031733 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Key Message:

*Above normal temperatures

Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the
short term. Yesterday, a new record high temperature was set at
Brownsville, where a 99 degree mark eclipsed the 97 degree record
set in 2018. Afternoon high temperatures will reach and exceed the
century mark for most inland locations today and Tuesday, with
coastal areas recording mid to upper 90s. A heat advisory has been
issued for this afternoon for all areas but the immediate coast,
with advertised heat index values of 111 to 115 degrees. Coastal
counties especially will see breezy and gusty southeast winds.
Mostly sunny skies will prevail. Low temperatures tonight will be a
few degrees above normal. Low temperatures will generally range from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The RG Plains and Upper Valley are
in a general thunderstorm outlook area for tonight. There is a weak
signal for Sierra Madre Oriental convection to the west this
evening, and a few cells could drift toward the CWA. Confidence is
on the low side for now. Rip current risk has been pegged at
moderate for today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

500 mb high pressure, varying between northwest Mexico and the
Four Corners area of the United States, will remain the main
weather influence over the BRO CWFA. This pattern will produce
dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
through the long term forecast period.

Meanwhile, well above normal daytime high temperatures are also
anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and
relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for
portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Wednesday and Thursday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for the
remainder of the daylight hours of the period.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico
and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a breezy to
windy onshore flow through the period. Despite the enhanced
pressure gradient, a WIND ADVISORY is not expected to be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR ceilings are expected to continue for the rest of the
afternoon before MVFR ceilings return for the overnight hours as
low-level clouds move into the region again. During the morning
hours, the low-level clouds are expected to mix out, allowing for
VFR ceilings to return. Southeasterly winds are expected to
continue for the TAF period, with gusty winds lasting through the
most of the period at all three TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Strong high pressure over the Gulf will support moderate to fresh
southeast winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas. Small
craft should exercise caution today. Low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters tonight and
Tuesday.

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
A gradual improvement in marine conditions is anticipated during
the period, as an enhanced pressure gradient is weakened due to
surface high pressure building into the western Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas at the beginning of the
period will transition to Small Craft Exercise Caution, before
finally settling on generally moderate winds and seas during the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  83  96  83 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               98  80  99  80 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                100  82 101  82 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        103  80 104  80 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  82  88  83 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  82  94  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-353.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...64-Katz