Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 221747 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1247 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...VFR will dominate the next 24 hours. Moderate and
gusty south southeast winds will decrease to light tonight, but a
tighter gradient Thursday will mean breezy to windy conditions.
Model guidance has a stronger signal for overnight MVFR ceilings
at MFE this go around, but the impact will be most significant
around dawn. Scattered to broken VFR ceilings will develop Thurs.
during the day.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions
expected to continue for the next 24 hours with surface high
pressure in place. South- southeast winds will become moderate and
gusty later this morning into the afternoon due to the local
gradient. Southeast winds will gradually diminish after sunset
this evening with a few low clouds drifting over the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): High presssure at the surface
and aloft will maintain very warm and dry conditions across Deep
South Texas through Thursday. The interaction of surface high
pressure over the Gulf and lower pressure across west Texas will
support moderate and gusty south-southeast winds today and Thursday.
High temperatures today will be in the 80s with a few 90s possible
across the west under mostly sunny skies. Southeast winds will
gradually diminish after sunset this evening. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the 60s across most of the area with increasing
low clouds. Thursday will be a repeat of today with plenty of
sunshine and high temperatures mostly in the 80s. Breezy southeast
winds will develop on Thursday due to an enhanced pressure gradient.
LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): A trio of weak cold
fronts will intrude into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley during the forecast period, but are not expected to pass
completely through the BRO CWFA due to a nearly zonal 500 mb flow
over the area. Additionally, a relative lack of available moisture
during the frontal intrusions will create dry weather for the
entire long term forecast period. With no significant cold air
surges with the weak fronts anticipated, well above normal daytime
high and overnight low temperatures are also expected.
MARINE (Now through Thursday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 14 knots with gusts near 16 knots and seas of 3.3 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. High pressure over the
Gulf and lower pressure across west Texas will support moderate
southeast winds and low to moderate seas through the short term.
Winds on the Laguna Madre will become elevated today and Thursday
resulting in small craft exercise caution conditions in the
afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution conditions will be
possible tonight and likely Thursday on the Gulf waters as the
pressure gradient tightens.
Thursday Night through Tuesday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas will prevail for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal
waters Thursday night through Monday as high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico interacts with low pressure over the Central Plains
and north-central Mexico. Surface high pressure becoming more
prominent over the western Gulf of Mexico will create diminishing
winds and subsiding seas and much more favorable marine conditions
for mariners Monday night through Tuesday.
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