555
FXUS63 KFGF 261436
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Probability for more than 0.25 inch of rain Sunday night into
  Monday is 40-50 percent, 10-20 percent for more than 0.50 inch

- Probability for more than 0.50 inch of rain 48 hour period
  Thursday and Friday is 50 percent and probability of more than
  1 inch is 20 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Weak 700 and 500mb waves continue to push east into western
North Dakota this morning with weak shower activity west of
Bismarck currently. Steeping lapse rates at the sfc with diurnal
heating and the weak forcing form these waves should promote
continued shower and even weak thunderstorm activity as these
move east through the morning and early afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Mid cloud area from Jamestown to Ada moving east so upped sky in
this area. Otherwise skies clear. Some very shallow ground fog
at a few spots but short lived.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024


Compared by the past few days, the upcoming forecast is pretty
quiet. Starting off with a mainly clear sky across the north
with temps 35-40. An area of mid clouds moving east and located
between Fargo and Bismarck. Then some high/mid clouds in our
far southeast with wave moving thru central MN. Any
precipitation remains south/east of our fcst area. Light winds
all areas, and light winds will be around all day.

Our next chance for showers and isolated t-storms will come from
a 500 mb short wave moving into western Montana. There is also a
weaker short wave ahead of this in far eastern Montana. This
eastern short wave is associated with some mid level showers and
there are additional scattered showers farther west into western
Montana. But overall moisture with this system is mid level
based and forcing is quite weak. So impacts in terms of rainfall
amounts will be minimal. Look for chance of showers to move into
DVL basin this aftn and chances spread east thru the evening
with first short wave in eastern Montana. The main short wave
moves thru E ND/NW MN Monday morning with the highest rain
chances overnight tonight into Monday morning. For this event
prob 24 hour qpf from NBM 4.2 from 00z Mon to 00z Tue show 40-50
pct chances for 0.25 or more inch across the area with 10-20
pct chances for more than 0.50 inch. Instability is minimal,
but will maintain a slight chance of T-storm mention.

Mild today ahead of the system despite light winds. Temps in the
mid 60s to low 70s, which is nearing normal for late May.

Tuesday will see clearing but a cooler than normal day with
highs in the 60s with a north wind to 25 mph. Sunny and milder
on Wednesday with highs nearing 70 as upper level ridge moves in
ahead of next 500 mb trough which will bring a band of showers
and t-storms across the area from west to east Thursday midday-
aftn into Friday. Thursdays afternoon will see a narrow zone of
MUCAPE in the 500 j/kg range into central ND enough for
scattered t-storms to mix in with the showers. Machine learning
progs do have a least a low chance for a strong storm into
central ND with that zone of higher instability.

48 hour probability for more than 0.50 inch range 12z Thu to 12z
Sat are in the 50 percent range with probs for more than 1 inch
in the 20 percent range, focused on the Red River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds today light and variable, thus wasn`t able to put in a
consistent wind direction today. Speeds will be 5 kts or less.
Increasing mid clouds gradually thru the day into tonight with
better chances for showers this evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle