Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
920 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Issued at 919 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Latest nighttime microphysics imagery shows more clearing than
expected today and have reduced sky cover ahead of more mostly
cloudy to overcast skies moving in from wrn ND. This has allowed
temps to fall somewhat faster, and have lowered overnight lows a
deg or two.  No other changes attm.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The Northern Plains remain in zonal flow, with a mix of clouds
and clear areas upstream. For tonight think there will be more
clouds than clear areas, and temperatures will remain mild. Still
on track for a slightly cooler day Saturday, but still above
normal for mid to late January.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Saturday night through Monday... The trends in guidance continue to
move the precipitation to the south. The most likely scenario at
this time is for no snow to fall with some snow showers possible
from Elbow Lake to Wadena. The deterministic models GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF all keep the snow to our south and east. Ensemble solutions
such as GEFS and SREF have little or no snow across almost all
plumes with only a few higher outliers. Some gustier winds will be
possible on Monday, especially in areas closer to the storm near
South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Without fresh snowfall
there will be little or no blowable snow so blowing snow is not

The above normal temperatures continue Sunday and Monday but are
cooler than Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday through Friday... The slightly above normal temperatures
continue with Wednesday being the coldest and near normal. The next
best chance for snow comes Friday into the weekend. A low that
develops off of the lee side of the Rockies moves up into Minnesota
and brings with it our next chance for snow. Currently all models
have this system but resolve it very differently. The GFS and ECMWF
keep it closer to our area but the CMC keeps it out farther east and
south. Although the GFS and ECMWF both have more westerly track the
speed and evolution of the system differ. With ECMWF being slower
with a higher impact in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR with predominantly mid-level clouds through tonight and
tomorrow morning. Some models are indicating MVFR deck sinking
into north central MN late tomorrow, with TVF/BJI possibly seeing
MVFR cigs near end of 00Z TAF period. Will keep TAFs VFR attm as
coverage is expected to decrease during aftn as well.




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