Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Issued at 955 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Light precip moving down out of Canada has been further west than
expected, with some returns starting to move into northern Towner
and Cavalier counties. Hard to get ground truth on what is
falling, although Brandon, Manitoba had some light rain at 37
degrees a few hours ago. Think there will be a light rain/freezing
rain mix coming in, changing to snow as upper temperatures drop.
The wintery mix will continue to push across the northern forecast
area for the rest of the night. Amounts will be light, but could
bring some slick spots to the northern counties by early tomorrow


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Tonights forecast challenge will be the chance for freezing
rain/drizzle changing over to light snow between midnight and 6am
along and north of highway 2. Roads may be slippery in spots
tomorrow morning as a result of the freezing precipitation. Highs
tomorrow look to stay mild with most of the region reaching 30
degrees. Any morning slippery spots should melt into tomorrow
afternoon with the mild temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Minor impacts are expected for parts of the weekend and early next
week, mainly associated several chances for precipitation moving

For Friday, there is a small chance for light freezing drizzle or
rain, mainly for the northern half of the area. A weak front and
upper jet streak move eastward through but may struggle to overcome
drier and warm mid levels in order to saturate. Liquid precipitation
is a bit unusual for January, but confidence is high in above
average temperatures occurring. 850mb temperatures fall outside of
NAEFS and GEFS climatology for this time of year under a strong
upper ridge moving through. This is expected bring high temperatures
in the 30s and perhaps even lower 40s on Friday. Friday is expected
to be the warmest day in this stretch, but southerwesterlies aloft
and west winds at the surface will yield mild weather persisting
through at least Saturday.

For Saturday night through Monday, the next chance for precipitation
returns as a Colorado Low moves through the Plains. At this time,
there is decent model agreement in the cyclone track. The latest
track suggests snow chances with light QPF for the forecast area,
with the greatest impacts being further south and east in the
Central Plains. However any change in the track could considerably
change impacts for the Northern Plains, so will continue to monitor
as it approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

All sites VFR. Some MVFR ceilings in Canada will move
southeastward, but at this point think they will remain north of
the TAF sites. Winds will be from the west to southwest at 10 to
15 kts, eventually shifting to the south by the end of the period.




SHORT TERM...Godon/Pederson
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.