Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280427
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Added a mention of patchy fog across the wetter areas of the
Northern Valley eastward into the bogs and Red Lakes and Lake of
the Woods region. Waskisk AWOS indicating VSBY down to a mile and
a half. No other changes to the overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Forecast challenge for the short term will be temperatures.

High pressure will continue to build into the FA tonight. With
mid to upper 40 dewpoints and SKC temperatures should be able to
drop into the mid 40 to low 50 range. Most guidance not excited
about fog formation however with surface ridge axis over Mn will
need to monitor.

After cool start, warmer column, weak return flow and full solar
should allow temperatures to recover close to seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Surface high pressure slides off to the southeast Tuesday night.
Not seeing a lot of forcing to justify pcpn chances, however there
is a weak front that does sag into northwest MN closer to 12z Wed.
Will maintain some low pcpn chances across northwest MN for this.
Models in poor agreement on Wed, but do seem to agree on pcpn
chances somewhere in the FA. Once again, not a lot to be confident
in, so pcpn chances will stay low. Better forcing arrives by Wed
night into early Thursday in the form of a Canadian short wave.
However, right behind this short wave is another sfc high.
Therefore, overall not really impressed by pcpn chances.

Thu night-Monday...

For Thursday night into Friday the FA is still under northwest
flow aloft and sfc high pressure. For this reason will maintain
a dry forecast with temps on the cooler side. This is followed
by weak 500mb ridging for Saturday/Sunday. Models seem to show a
fair amount of cloud cover over the area and thus still somewhat
cool temps. By Sunday night into Monday the ridge shifts east and
is replaced by low pressure moving in from the west. Therefore once
again there are more pcpn chances in the forecast.|

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR with light winds becoming southerly for most of the TAF period.
Patchy fog looks possible for a brief time overnight in the
northern valley...possibly at GFK or TVF. Not confident enough to
introduce into the TAFs.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JK



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