Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 934 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

At the current time, radar indicates a band of rain showers and
likely virga from Rosholt SD to Lidgerwood ND to Gwinner ND with
an area between Cayuga and Lidgerwood actually seeing
reflectivities > 50 dBz and the last radar return. Both the 06Z
GFS and 09Z SREF show a band of H700 frontogenetic forcing in this
area, with the GFS showing a bit better gradient, however,
displaced slightly south of the band. Web cams at Oakes show a
west surface however Forman looks fairly dry. Despite the limited
ground truth, will increase to likelies along this band for the
next three hours. At this point, prefer the inherited chance POPs
until more 12Z data comes available as SREF/GFS both shift this
mid level forcing into w central will keep 18Z and beyond
as is for the time being.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Radar returns have been moving into southeast North Dakota this
morning likely associated with mid-level warm
advection/moistening. Do have some low pops mentioned, but with
model soundings indicating a dry sub-cloud layer, not confident in
much reaching the ground yet.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

After what has been a very quiet period in terms of precipitation
since the first week of October, better chances for rainfall will
arrive today/tonight for parts of the region, with placement and
amounts the main challenge.

Moisture will be on the increase today ahead of an upper wave
that will eject into the northern plains by later with
continued mild temps and increasingly breezy SE winds.
Unseasonably high precipitable water values nearing 1 inch will
likely reach northward into the southern Red River Valley by later
today. Most model guidance indicates a developing band of rain
this afternoon over northeast South Dakota and southeast North
Dakota in response to increasing low to mid-level warm advection
/mid-level deformation associated with the upper wave, lifting
east-northeastward through the afternoon and overnight hours.
Confidence in rainfall totals generally in the 0.5 to 1.0
inch range (possibly locally higher amounts) is highest across
the southern Red River Valley into Minnesota Lakes Country as has
been advertised. The NAM remains slightly farther north with the
higher QPF compared with the GFS/ECMWF/GEM, but based on model
consensus, confidence in higher totals decreases with northward
extent. Did delay rain chances a bit over northwestern Minnesota
this afternoon with moistening likely to take longer to occur over
this area.

Eventually, a strengthening low-level jet is expected to focus
more into southern Minnesota/Iowa tonight, which should lead to
weakening of the band over our area. Showers are possible towards
the international border in association with another upper wave
moving across southern Canada tonight, but the stronger forcing
should stay north of the border. Thus, for this event, rain
amounts will likely be lowest across the north/highest across the
south, but some fine tuning of the precip gradient will likely be

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Showers will linger into northwestern Minnesota into Wednesday as
the pair of upper waves moves away. While little in the way of
cooling is expected behind the system, cloud cover/showers may
impact temps, and have kept the coolest temps over the eastern

Thursday should be quite pleasant with temps up into the 50s to
low 60s as mid-level ridging builds into the region.

Friday-Monday...Rather low confidence forecast as the ECMWF and GFS
differ with timing and location of upper waves in nearly zonal flow
aloft. The key message is that there will be at least a couple
chances for rainfall but not sure exactly when or where. Rainfall
amounts for any system would likely remain less than an inch...but
potentially greater than a quarter inch. The potential for frozen p-
types are minimal, so any impacts from these systems would be very
low. Went with a mostly dry forecast until confidence
increases. Temperatures near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Southeasterly winds will increase today with gusts up into the
25-30 kt range possible Red River Valley westward. A band of rain
will likely reach KFAR towards late afternoon and continue
spreading northeastward through the evening/overnight. In addition
to reduced VSBY within heavier showers, lowering ceilings are
expected through the period, with MVFR/IFR ceilings possible by




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