041
FXUS63 KFGF 280318
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1018 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday
  into Thursday night, with a 50% chance for more than 0.50
  inches over this 48 hour period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

There is still just enough elevated instability/marginal mid
level lapse rates with the passing shortwave trough that
additional light showers (and a few lighting strikes) are
moving through the region, with a more definitive end to rain
behind the mid level trough axis. Instability should continue to
diminish through midnight and what forcing is there should move
to the southeast, but for now I adjusted PoPs/Wx to account for
a slower end to rain/thunder northwest to southeast.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

RAP analysis already shows a decrease in low level lapse rates
and as the sun sets this should continue with MLCAPE rapidly
decreasing. Limited elevated instability/marginal mid level
lapse rates may still support a few lingering lighter showers
beyond sunset, but the bulk of activity should end by 03Z. The
had be a few marginal updrafts that supported smaller hail and a
few gusts in the last few hours but this threat has also started
to wan as shallower updrafts reflect decreasing instability
trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Another interesting day with boundaries and shortwaves pushing
through the FA. The first shortwave pushed south and east of the
FA by early afternoon, and it is now affecting south central
Minnesota. There is also a scattered line of showers and storms
from Devils Lake to Garrison to Watford City. This area saw a
little more sun today, so it has squeaked out about 500J/kg of
MLCAPE, but weak effective shear. Finally a secondary shortwave
was located over southern Manitoba, which will move across the
FA tonight into Tuesday morning. After this last shortwave moves
through there should finally be a couple of dry days as 500mb
ridging moves back in. As this ridge pushes east, rain chances
return again for Thursday and Thursday night, and possibly
Friday night into Saturday morning.

The regional radar clearly shows the activity around each of the
areas mentioned above. This activity is fairly scattered (30-50%
coverage) and will likely hang around well into the evening.
Model guidance is indicating another batch of lower clouds
dropping from southern Manitoba into the northern FA around
sunrise Tuesday. This area continues to slide southward through
the morning, as it slowly thins. This, along with fairly steady
northwest winds in the 5 to 10 mph range should prevent much fog
from forming. There should be more sun around by Wednesday, but
temperatures may only struggle to get back to normal (around
70F).

As mentioned above, the next round of rainfall will move from
west to east across the FA Thursday into Friday morning. This
has been pretty well advertised in the ensemble solutions. The
more notable change today is that there may well be a break in
the precipitation after this initial line of precipitation moves
through. Therefore, eastern North Dakota could dry out again
Thursday evening, and areas east of the Red River could too on
Friday. However, so far anticipated precipitation amounts
shouldn`t deviate too much from the mention above (50% chance
for more than 0.50 inches over a 48 hour period). Behind this,
there could be another wave for Friday night into Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Several areas of showers are moving across eastern ND and
northwest MN, with coverage already starting to decrease west to
east. There is still a low chance for a few light showers
overnight, but chances will be too low to linger mention beyond
03Z. Under some of these showers in the afternoon/early evening
ceilings have dropped to 3000 FT AGL, but this is transitioning
east with the main activity and VFR should prevail through 11Z
once the current activity ends. There is still a strong signal
for more widespread MVFR (localized IFR) stratus to arrive in
the 11-14Z period northwest to southeast Tuesday morning,
overspreading eastern ND and northwest MN as surface high
pressure builds into the region. Improvement back to VFR is
favored by midday as daytime heating/mixing increases.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...DJR