Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 302005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW/NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT LEADS TO LIGHT SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AS ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN
MEASURABLE PRECIP). AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LIGHT NIGHTTIME
WINDS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SATURDAY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST
THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST A TAD...ALLOWING FOR THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING
AND THUS INSTABILITY...BUT ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FA THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
INSTABILITY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD THANKS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. CHC FOR
CONVECTION LIMITED TO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR EVEN SKC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH NW WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK


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