Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071300
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. CIGS
RANGED FROM 8 HUNDRED TO 25 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY AS VFR CIGS OF 35 TO 50 HUNDRED FT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER. EXPECT MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MN
SIDE WITH SNOW FOR THIS MORNING. MORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-027-029-
     030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES


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