Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1039 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA... BUT WITH NO SIG
ACCUMULATIONS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN WESTERN ND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT WARM FRONTAL AND THEN POST /COLD/ FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHES FOR THE PERIOD.

POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO HANG OUT IN EASTERN ND WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF SCATTERED MIXED PRECIP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA THAT FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 800MB FRONTOGENESIS
AS SEEN IN THE RAP13 ANALYSIS. THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO ND TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A MIX OF PRECIP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES FURTHER SOUTH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. THINK THAT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS
PROBABLE WITH RISING TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR SURGES NORTH
AND FALLING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING...AND WITH COLD TEMPS AT THE SFC...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET ARE POSSIBLE. THIS MIXED PRECIP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT NO MATTER WHAT THE
PRECIP TYPE...SO WILL INCLUDE AN SPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MENTIONING VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IN SPOTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING IN THE REGION. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD GO DOWN BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH THE COLD AIR EVEN WITH WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA...BUT PRETTY SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH NOT
MUCH ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COLD AND DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET NEAR ZERO AND WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING WE COULD AGAIN DROP CLOSE TO THE 20 BELOW MARK IN SOME
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPS STILL IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...IT WILL STILL FEEL VERY RAW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS APPROACHING ADVISORY MARK BUT TOO SOON TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE
STRONG...WITH 45 TO 55 KT 850 JET AND 45KT 925 JET WINDS
TRAVERSING CWFA. SINCE THIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY DO NOT THINK FULL GRADIENT POTENTIAL WILL BE REALIZED. BUT
IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS. SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW MOVES RAPIDLY EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY. AS SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR/ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER ONLY SLGT CHC POPS GIVEN OVER EASTERN PART OF CWFA.

BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY
RAPID COOLDOWN. TRAJECTORIES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT UNDER FLATTER
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER 1000-500KPA THICKNESS SUGGEST
THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS RECENT INTRUSIONS.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE NICELY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES RELATIVELY SLIGHT. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES DEPICTED BY MODELS SO HAVE KEPT WED - FRI PERIOD
PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WESTERN ND WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN ND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD MVFR BANDS OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP INTO THE AREA... AFT 09Z INTO THE DVL BASIN AND AFT 11Z
INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER BASIN. POINTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
MN WILL LIKELY SEE MIXED PRECIP AFT 12Z AND THROUGH TEH MORNING
HOURS. ONCE LOW PRESSRE SYSTEM PASSES THE CENTRAL RRV MIDDAY... WE
WILL LIKELY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS AND ADDN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...GUST







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