Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1154 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Highly uncertain next 12-18 hours in terms of aviation concerns
(cigs/vsby), fog issues and precipitation and type.

Low clouds and areas of fog remain in the nrn RRV. Southern edge
of fog which has gotten better around Grand Forks seems to be more
patchy in terms of lower vsbys vs north. However high uncertainity
and due to light wind kept persistance and extended dense fog adv
thru 13z. Cavalier, Langdon (per reports), Hallock all socked in.

Got several waves of light precipitation moving through and short
range models not great in handling it. Next area of light precip
entering DVL region will move east. Top down temp profiles would
indicate gradual cooling in the 925-850 mb layer overnight in the
northern fcst area so result would be more wintry mix but light
amounts. No changes done for Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The main concern tonight through Wednesday will be the impacts of
precipitation produced by a surface low rushing through North Dakota
from west to east. Precipitation will begin in the Devils Lake area
tonight as light rain. As dry air aloft gradually becomes more
saturated overnight, rain showers will spread along and north of
Highway 2, centered around an axis from Devils Lake ND to Baudette
and Roseau. With temperatures having remained significantly cooler
over an area from Hallock to Roseau, would expect those locations
to receive more snow showers/light wintry mix than rain during

Temperatures begin to drop overnight from northwest to
southeast as cold air moves in behind the cold front. This colder
air moving in from the north Wednesday morning will gradually
transition precipitation to a light wintry mix and light snow by
Wednesday afternoon in the northern half of the forecast area.
These locations will likely see less than an inch of snow, but
with some uncertainty in the model QPF and temperature fields
today, cannot rule out bands of heavier amounts especially around
the Devils Lake area and an area from Bemidji to Crookston in MN.
Slick roads will be a concern Wednesday morning in the northern
half of the forecast area with temperatures falling to near or
just below freezing during the morning commute. Precipitation
chances gradually increase southward early Wednesday morning. In
the southern half of the forecast area, expect that the air will
gradually saturate early Wednesday and temperatures look to
remain warm enough to receive mainly light rain showers during
late morning through late afternoon.

Fog will continue to be a concern overnight and into Wednesday
morning as some parts of the far northern Red River Valley have not
quite cleared out today and relatively strong low level moisture
content remains in the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

On Wednesday evening, it`s possible precipitation will still be present.
There are several short wave troughs will be exiting the area at
that point. There is also high vorticity at the 500 mb level
causing rising motion near the surface. Expecting mixed
precipitation changing over to snow into Thursday morning before
tapering off. Temperatures are starting to dip down into the low
30s reaching the mid 20s for the high on Friday following a cold
front pushing southward through the period. The GFS has a system
that is trending further northward than other models which has
potential to clip our southern counties. Included some low PoPs in
the region however, if precipitation occurs, it will likely be in
our southern counties.

Saturday and Sunday temperatures are going to continue to dip into
the single digits for lows and twenties for highs. Temperatures will
be near average values for this time of year. Very few short waves
will be moving through over the weekend and this could bring a few
flurries to light snow showers however, nothing significant.

Monday and Tuesday bring about the most challenge. The GFS and
European models are not in agreement in regards to a system that has
potential to set up over the forecast area. The location of the low
pressure system will determine where and how much precipitation is
expected over these days. Uncertainty is very high. Will keep PoPs
near the blended solution.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Grand Forks area once again high uncertainity in terms of
vsbys/cigs. In general expect IFR cat for most of the next 12-24
hours. IFR cigs may spread south thru the late night into
wednesday as cooler air moves south.


ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008-016-

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001-004-007.



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