594
FXUS63 KGLD 110738
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
138 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances the next couple of days, with
  slightly better chances Thursday night. A few marginally
  severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Scattered showers continue to weaken across southwest Nebraska
tonight and should be done by 12z. Otherwise, may see some
patchy fog this morning in northern Yuma County where rain fell
earlier, then morning clouds will give way to afternoon sun with
highs in the upper 80s and light winds. There is a low
probability of afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms along a
weakening frontal boundary, roughly located along Interstate 70.
There is also a weak wave coming over the top of the ridge to
the west which may contribute additional lift. Environment will
be characterized by weak instability, 500-1000 j/kg, and weak
shear of around 20-25 kts. Severe storms are not anticipated and
should dissipate shortly after 00z this evening. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Upper ridge expands eastward across the central plains on
Wednesday with temperatures warming into the upper 90s. There
will be a surface trough/dry line setting up in the afternoon
in eastern portions of the area, roughly Norton to Tribune in
northwest Kansas, which may be the focus for isolated afternoon
thunderstorms. The environment on the moist side of the dry line
will be moderately unstable, up to 1500 j/kg is forecast, with
deep layer of 30 kts. So, should a storm pop cannot totally rule
out a chance for small hail/gusty winds through the early
evening hours. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s to around
70.

Upper ridge will be centered over New Mexico and southern
Colorado on Thursday. Temperatures will be very warm once again
with upper 90s to near 100 south of Interstate 70, low to mid
90s north. Shortwave trough rotating around the ridge will
trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night. Moisture will be increasing across the area with an
easterly surface wind and dew points forecast to be in the 50s
and 60s. Nocturnal timing is not ideal, but there will be
plentiful MUCAPE available with models showing anywhere from
2000-4000 j/kg and deep layer shear of around 30-35 kts. While
not currently outlooked for severe storms, the parameters
suggest at least a low end threat for hail and wind with
stronger storms. Low temperatures Thursday night will be mainly
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Heading into Friday, the upper ridge formerly over the Four Corners
region shifts eastward as an upper low moves into the Desert
Southwest then proceeds into the Plains on Saturday. With low level
east-southeasterly flow, an uptick in moisture drawn into the area
places PWATs in the range of 1-1.75 inches by Friday evening,
promoting increased precipitation potential with arrival of a
shortwave. As mentioned in prior discussion, if timing of this
feature is later in the evening-overnight, it lowers confidence in
severe weather potential with any storms; however, will want to
continue to monitor as models come into better agreement in case
timing speeds up just enough to allow at least a brief window for a
few severe storms. The main story will be the beneficial rainfall
which looks to move through much of the area Friday night. The upper
low will then cross through the area on Saturday, followed by west-
southwesterly flow through the remainder of the long term period as
shortwaves continue to impact the area, keeping daily chances for
showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance.

With the late week system, high temperatures drop off from the mid-
week near triple digit heat - into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
We`ll warm up again into the mid-upper 90s on Sunday as skies clear
behind the exiting low pressure system, with upper 80s-90s
continuing into the start of the next work week. Overnight low
through the period will generally be in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
south-southwest around 10-15kts through 13z Tuesday, then
then light/variable. From 18z onward south around 10kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
southwest around 10kts. By 08z, light/variable becoming east-
southeast around 10kts from 16z onward. LLWS 08z-16z Tuesday
220@40kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN