Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 032330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Light rain and snow will gradually end this afternoon as upper
shortwave moves away from the area. Area webcams show only light
accumulations on grassy surfaces, so not expecting any impacts
from the snow. Cloud shield will lag a bit behind the
precipitation but should be clearing the local forecast area by
around 06z tonight.

A dry zonal flow will develop aloft on Sunday, resulting in mostly
sunny skies, light winds and temperatures near seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 106 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Brief period of weak shortwave ridging will be in place across
the area on Sunday night leading to a period of quiet weather
before more unsettled weather sets in through the middle of the
week. Increasing cross mountain flow should maintain a thick
cirrus shield through the night and in combination with increasing
return flow...expect somewhat warmer overnight temps and overall
little impactful weather through Monday morning. Pattern will
become more active through the rest of the period as large trough
begins to dig into the northern Rockies...forcing a cold front
across the area Monday afternoon. Have some concerns that period
of strong post frontal winds will occur late Monday Afternoon into
the evening. Could definitely see a 2 hour window with gusts to
around 45 mph...but with the timing of this still somewhat in the
air cannot get to carried away with it at this point.

Main area of concern will focus on the Tuesday night period as short
wave trough sweeps over the area...interacting with stalled H7
frontal zone that will be bisecting the area. While it does not
appear to be very unstable...deep snow growth zone may produce high
snow to liquid ratios. While this remains several days out...GEFS
plumes show very high confidence in timing and occurrence of this
system and think bulk of CWA has a high chance of measuring snow
Tues night. The fluffy nature of the snow may make it prone to
blowing...but currently looks like winds will only be in 10 to 20
mph range. While to early to confidently predict amounts...does not
appear that is going to bring big amounts...but may be enough to
create some travel headaches as it passes.

Other concern for the period will be just how cold things get as
cold air mass settles over the area. Think temps will be in the
teens or low 20s through Thursday before airmass begins to slide
east. Too much uncertainty to stray from the mean after that...but
would not be surprised to see cold temps hang on through Friday for
Hill City and Norton area. Single digits lows...possibly dipping
below zero look to be a good bet...especially on Wed night with high
confidence that sfc high will be settled over the area that night
and skies clearing after the Tues system.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected at KGLD through the
period. For KMCK, mvfr cigs expected for a few hours from 00z
through about 02z, then vfr conditions are expected for the rest of
the taf period. Low level mvfr clouds that yesterdays 18z model
guidance suggested would impact the terminals today (and the 00z
models kept away from the terminals) developed and as of 2345z are
just east of both terminals. Winds from the south around 6kts. For
the rest of the taf period winds will becoming westerly around 8kts
by 04z, northwest around 06z as a trough moves through. Winds remain
northwest through early afternoon then back to the southwest by
late in the day. Some mid level clouds move through this evening
with a generally clear sky Sunday.




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