Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
201 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four
corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the
Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. A surface low is centered over
the Oklahoma Panhandle with easterly gradient north of this over
our CWA.

This afternoon-Tonight: As upper low moves across the
southern plains a weak front or surface trough axis will shift
over our CWA.Track of upper low and position of main surface low
places main axis of forcing and better moisture advection well
south of our CWA.Low level flow will actually pull drier air into
the region as large scale forcing and mid-upper level moisture
increases. This limits potential for measurable precipitation. I
kept slight chance PoPs across the southern half of our CWA in
place mainly for evening period to cover the minimum potential.
Confidence in more than sprinkles/flurries/virga is low, and any
measurable precipitation would only amount to a few hundredths of
liquid equivalent. Radiational cooling will be limited tonight as
a result of increasing mid-upper level cloud cover, so overnight
lows may remain near 30 (particularly in our southeast).

Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly
cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to
clearing skies and good mixing. BL winds do increase and will
support daytime gusts in the 25-35 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Sunday the sky will clear as an upper level ridge begins to build
onto the Plains.  Highs will be similar to today due to WAA from the
approaching ridge.  In the afternoon northwest winds will become
breezy as a weak low level jet mixes to the ground.

Sunday night through Monday night the weather will continue to be
uneventful as the upper level ridge builds overhead.  Monday a warm
front will move through. Highs will be the warmest of the next week,
with some locations warming close to 60 degrees as WAA increases
ahead of the next upper level trough to move across the Plains.
Based on past days that were a quick warmup ahead of an approaching
trough, sided with the warmer guidance but the current forecast may
not be warm enough.

The extended period begins with a closed low that will traverse the
northern portions of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS and
ECMWF are in a bit of disagreement regarding the track of the low
thus confidence in the PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday are relatively
low. Currently, the GFS keeps much of the CWA dry with only the
northern most counties seeing chc PoPs Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF
brings the low further south, with chc PoPs extending south of
Interstate 70. Precipitation phase would likely begin as snow,
transition to rain briefly during the middle of the day and then
transition back to snow as CAA prevails during the afternoon and
evening. The blend came in with an awkward mix of ECMWF and GFS thus
I leaned toward the GFS given better track consistency. This being
said, even a small southward shift in the track would bring us
closer to the ECMWF solution thus bringing better snow and rain
chances to a much larger portion of the CWA. It is worth noting that
the Canadian model is even further south than the ECMWF and has a
track across the southern portions of the CWA from southwest to
northeast. Once this system moves east of the region on Wednesday,
we are looking at dry conditions prevailing through the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will begin below average as strong
CAA will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of the H5 low.
Highs will climb into the 30s to near 40 degrees across much of the
CWA Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures to the southeast. The
entire CWA will see cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs only
reaching the lower to middle 30s. A slow warming trend will take
shape as the weekend approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK terminals. Upper level system may bring flurries or very
light snow chances to the region, but at this time confidence is
too low due to limited coverage. A dry sub cloud layer may also
limit this to mainly virga. If a terminal was to see light
precipitation it would be KGLD based on current track, but
chances are still too low to include mention in TAF.

Winds will generally remain below 12kt through the first 12hr of
the TAF period, with the direction shifting to the north then west
as the weak surface front moves past both terminals. Winds then
increase after sunrise Sunday and a few gusts will be possible at
KGLD in the 15-20kt range (stronger towards the end of the TAF




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