000
FXUS63 KGLD 221935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S.

TOMORROW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID-DAY...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE 60S. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STABLE
AIR MASS...SO EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
FINALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GFS IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AROUND 200 J/KG...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME CONVECTION.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS/FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AFTER 18Z WITH PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR AROUND 700 MB. EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LENDS
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH GFS IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT TIMING OF THESE IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EVOLVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. TODAY...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...CAUSING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR VISIBILITY AT MCK. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...LIFTING AFTER DAWN TO VFR LEVELS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...JJM