Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200512
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES QUICKLY DROP OFF
BY 01Z...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH NONZERO
MUCAPE.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION DUE TO INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
THE EASTER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE EVEN LOWER...LESS THAN 20KTS. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE
LINE...BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. QPF
WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 RANGE IN THE EAST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10
IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE
AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST BEHIND UPPER TROUGH. RIDING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TUESDAY WILL BE TIED
TO DRY LINE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREADING
INTO KS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SO I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AFTER SUNSET. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE IN TIMING OF DRY
LINE PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND 3HR REQUIREMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN CWA AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. MAIN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT GOOD SW FLOW ADVECTING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS/EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...AND
NARROW AXIS OF GOOD INSTABILITY GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. DETAILS ON UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION AND SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER IF PATTERN WERE TO PLAY OUT
AS GFS/ECMWF CURRENTLY DEPICT WE COULD HAVE A SET UP FOR OUR FIRST
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEER PROFILES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS...AND GFS SHOW SB/MIXED LAYER
CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
(ESPECIALLY WITH RUN-RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES)...HOWEVER IT IS WORTH
MONITORING.

INCREASING MIXING/GRADIENT WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS WEDNESDAY. LOWER TD VALUES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND DRY LINE...AND AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WOULD
LIKELY REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR RFW CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT
RH/WIND FORECAST.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN THE PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN A
RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
SATURDAY.

REGARDING TEMPS...FORECAST IS GENERALLY CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S/80S. WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND WARMER AIR MASS WELL
ENTRENCHED IN THE PLAINS THIS IS REASONABLE. THERE MAY BE TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART






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