Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
145 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend with above normal temperatures Monday
  through Saturday.

- Potential impactful system next weekend? Much cooler
  temperatures a possibility as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge /omega block/
anchored to the Pacific Coast.. and a cut-off low, trapped
within, over the Desert Southwest.. will persist.

Benign weather, characterized by dry conditions and near average
temperatures, will prevail throughout the short term period..
in association with an increasingly subsident /confluent flow
aloft/ synoptic regime over the Central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

At the start of the long term period, the area is under
northwesterly flow aloft as the center of low pressure formerly over
the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region has progressed eastward and
is now situated in vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles. A cold front is
expected to move through Thursday, and winds are currently forecast
to gust into the 20-25 mph range with min RH west of Hwy 27
falling into the teens to low 20s, possibly creating some fire
weather concern. Moisture will be drawn up through TX/OK into
parts of KS - will need to monitor whether or not our area will
see any precipitation with this or simply an increase in cloud
cover. 850mb temperatures Thursday generally in the 12-18C range
give above normal temperatures, in the middle 60s to low 70s.
Low temperatures are forecast in the 30s.

Friday, an upper level ridge moving over the western CONUS will have
the area under west-northwest flow aloft. During the latter part of
the weekend, flow aloft backs towards the southwest ahead of an
upper level trough moving through the western CONUS. As mentioned in
previous discussions, this system will bring a potentially more
active pattern during this period, but there is uncertainty in
impacts at this range. For now, the forecast includes a few off and
on chances for precipitation (generally to around 20-30%), mainly in
the form of rain, but cooler air working in may see a transition to
or mix with snow. Temperatures also have a greater uncertainty,
currently expecting generally near to above normal temperatures
Friday and Saturday, with mid-upper 50s and 60s for highs and 30s
for lows, before trending cooler and closer to normal again for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northerly
winds around 12kts at taf issuance will increase from 19z-00z
with gusts of 25-30kts from the north. Tonight, north-northeast
winds under 10kts becoming light and variable. Monday morning,
light and variable winds persist through much of the period,
becoming light from the northwest at the end of the period.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northerly
winds gusting up to 30kts at taf issuance will continue through
00z. Tonight, northerly winds slowly subside this evening,
becoming light and variable by 06z. Monday morning, light and
variable winds persist through much of the period, becoming
westerly at speeds under 10kts at the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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