Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251006 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
348 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Main forecast issues will be how long to keep the rain chances going
and temperatures, especially the lows. Satellite showing an amplified
and blocky flow from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. Analysis
and satellite showing the amount of moisture the column has decreased
from yesterday. Slow moving cold front looks like it has finally
cleared the forecast area.

At jet level...models started out fine but were a little weak on
incoming southern jet. At mid levels...the Canadian and Gfs were
doing the best. Nam was doing well with the surface pattern.

Today/tonight...Right rear quadrant moves across the area during
the day. Last shortwave, a rather strong one, in this flow rotates
through during this time. A large cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is approaching the area. So will have very high pops
to start out the day and gradually decrease them from west to
east during the afternoon. With cold air advection, thick cloud
cover and ongoing rainfall, will cool todays maxes a little.

During the night the models redevelop or move this right rear
quadrant back to the northwest. Strong southern jet starts nosing
into the area during the last half of the night. At that time the
area is solidly in a coupled jet setup. However, the air mass is
becoming much drier by then. Will keep the gradually decreasing pops
but slow it up a little. With most of the area seeing no rainfall by
late in the night and some breaks in the cloud cover developing,
models are indicating that some fog could develop so inserted this
after midnight.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Coupled jet structure begins the day over
the area. By late in the afternoon the models consolidate the jet
with the jet axis over/near the southeast half of the area. By this
time the column has dried out considerably so at this time only
expect some lingering cloud cover. Blend high temperatures look
reasonable and left alone.

Jet axis/right rear quadrant remains over the southeast half of the
area through the night. Even though the column remains dry and do
not expect precipitation, this will keep some cloud cover around
which will be a good thing. Models are all indicating little to no
wind. So am expecting at this time these clouds to keep temperatures
near or slightly below what the blend gave me. If the cloud cover is
much less, temperatures in the upper 30s and maybe even mid 30s
could be possible.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Models differ on the details but
essentially keep the jet axis over the area through the day with
them finally moving it to the east of the area during the night.
Some cloud cover should be around. Blend high temperatures again
look reasonable and again left alone.

Shortwave trough approaches after midnight. Some instability present
plus some models have some qpf. Model blend inserted some pops so
see no reason to make changes to this at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Thursday-Friday: Models are in better agreement for this period when
compared to yesterday. ECMWF has come in line with the GFS`s idea of
moving the closed low over the Four Corners, northward into southern
Wyoming. Will see chances of rain and storms through Friday morning,
mainly along and west of the KS/CO border. Daytime highs should
remain below normal with nighttime lows near normal.

Saturday-Sunday: Models are not in agreement for this portion of the
extended. Most global models agree on a closed low and longwave
trough developing over the Northern Plains and deepening
southward. The issue is placement of this feature. ECMWF has it
east of the CWA which would leave our area under the influence of
upper level ridging and dry. GFS brings the feature into Colorado
which would put our area downstream of the trough with better
chances of rain and storms. Forecast is a blend, but leans more
towards the GFS solution. Temperatures should remain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to rotate from the
south to the north across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.
Trend is towards IFR and LIFR cigs, however vis has been highly
variable due to ample low level moisture and complications from
moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity. This pattern
should remain in place through most of the TAF period, with
gradual improvement late Monday afternoon and Monday evening
(particularly at KMCK). Confidence is low on exact timing of
possible improvement or deterioration in vis/cigs, so prevailing
conditions were based on persistence and short range model
consensus. Winds should prevail out of the north, with gusts
possible late tonight through tomorrow (around 15-21kt).




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