Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS BROAD BAND TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS.

MEANWHILE A BAND OF STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIFT THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THIS BROAD BAND OF LIFT...MUCH WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO BE
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. HAVE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN ON RADAR ALREADY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL INSTEAD HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS SINCE THE WORST OF THE EVENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

DUE TO THE SUDDEN NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SLEET...THERE
HAVE BEEN MANY SLIDE-OFFS AND ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-70 FROM
KIT CARSON COUNTY TO THOMAS COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTERSTATE
BEING SHUT DOWN FROM COLBY TO THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING FOR BOTH
SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER/NEAR THE SITES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION CEILINGS WILL
STAY/LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL


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