994
FXUS64 KHGX 012335
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Ongoing scattered convection across the northern half of the CWA will
die off by early evening. Will be canceling the remaining parts
of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch at the top of the hour.
Otherwise, looking quiet overnight with some isolated pockets of
fog.

Heading into mid morning Sunday, we`ll see some daytime heating
and a seabreeze begin initiating. This combined with remnants of
an elongated piece of vorticity (now in NW approaching W Tx)
should be enough to initiate some daytime shra/tstms. Like today,
dynamics not looking too impressive for long lived severe wx, but
cannot rule out a couple of isolated strong-severe cells and
locally heavy downpours. Better shot of this occurring across the
ene half of the CWA. This activity should also die off toward the
evening. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Diminishing rain chances and increasing temperatures can be expected
early next week as ridging builds over Mexico. Impulses riding the
peripheral of this ridge could still bring some isolated
showers/storms on Monday, mainly in areas north of I-10 closer to
the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Stronger capping on
Tuesday/Wednesday may greatly suppress rain chances on those days.
Along with the stronger cap, NAEFS and GEFS 850mb temperatures are
forecasted to surpass the 90th climatological percentile on these
days (even the 97.5th in some spots). The latest suite of global
models still suggest 850mb temperatures reaching the 20-26C range
during this period, with robust SW flow in the lower levels. This
all looks to bring hotter conditions during this early/mid week
period, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s on
Tuesday/Wednesday. Persistent onshore winds are also progged to keep
dewpoints in the mid/lower 70s during this period.

Global models show an elongated trough near the Upper Great lakes
attempting for force a weak cold front southward into the
Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region late in the week, but frontal
systems have a tendency to stall out before reaching SE Texas
during this time of the year. Still, the aforementioned upper
trough may weaken the ridge`s influence, improving afternoon
mixing and providing some mild relief by the end of the work week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The afternoon`s storm activity is largely winding down, except for
well northeast of the terminals, but also...right around CXO and
IAH, because of course. These quick thunderstorms should be
wrapped up in an hour or so. Beyond that, clouds should largely
dissipate for most of the night, until the pre-dawn stratus
returns. High confidence in getting CIGs here at least in low
MVFR, but some guidance does show potential for some high IFR
cloud bases as well. Am opting to be optimistic for now. Later in
the morning, cloud bases lift, scatter, and set us up for another
round of afternoon showers/storms. Seabreeze, as usual, should be
the initial focus, so leave CLL, LBX, and GLS out of the action
this time around.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Onshore flow will gradually increase heading into the early and
midweek time period. Look for a corresponding rise in seas.
Caution flags may be needed intermittently. Scattered storms are
again possible on Sunday, mainly in the bays. Rain chances then
gradually diminish early in the week.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  90  76  91 /  20  30  20  20
Houston (IAH)  75  90  77  91 /  20  40  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  81  87 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47