Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
072 FXUS65 KABQ 070003 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 603 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms return early this week with Tuesday, and Wednesday expected to be the most active days. Areas near and east of the central mountain chain will be favored this evening and overnight before showers and storms spread to more of central New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. A few storms may become strong to severe with hail and gusty winds. - There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding over isolated low lying and poorly drained spots and arroyos in central NM, including Santa Fe and Albuquerque. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1203 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A longwave trough remains in place over the western CONUS with a weak cut-off low offshore of CA. This is feeding southwesterly flow into NM. Low stratus clouds eroded away and burned off in northeastern NM during the late morning and early afternoon, and the backdoor front looks to have pushed into east central NM... south of I-40 in Roosevelt, De Baca, southern Guadalupe, and Torrance counties. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to initiate near and just south of the boundary this afternoon. Ample directional shear could lend to a couple of strong, rotating updrafts that produce hail and downbursts through the evening. Showers and storms will grow upscale, expanding across eastern NM tonight with the severe threat dwindling, but ample low clouds and patchy fog developing toward dawn Tuesday. The front will gain a westward push with this evening`s convection, and easterlies will surge through gaps and canyons, producing some gusty conditions into parts of Santa Fe, eastern Albuquerque, and other vulnerable locations. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be likely at the mouth of the Tijeras Canyon before dawn Tuesday with other parts of the metro area getting partially shielded by the Sandias. Ongoing showers will turn more spotty and retreat over eastern NM Tuesday with cloudy and more stable conditions persisting for a large portion of the plains through the afternoon. The central mountain chain will retain moist upslope flow through Tuesday that could help trigger convective initiation, and the Continental Divide will also have a similar upslope component working there. With east southeast boundary layer winds and west southwesterlies aloft, there will once again be high bulk shear (45-55 kt 0-6 km layer) with a few cells turning strong to severe centrally between the Continental Divide and central mountain chain. Storms are modeled to carry on into Tuesday night, mostly within interior/central zones, losing their severe threat, but still posing locally heavy rainfall potential. More low stratus clouds and patchy fog will redevelop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially over central rain-soaked areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1203 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 The southwesterlies aloft will start to relax a bit over NM on Wednesday as high pressure begins swelling over TX. The surface flow will start to turn more southerly, and while upslope flow will reduce, subtropical moisture will remain in place, especially in central to eastern areas where PWATs will generally range between 0.9 to 1.1 inch. Sufficient instability will be present for scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening with much of the activity dwindling by midnight. By Thursday and Friday, high pressure will try to expand more from TX into NM while a deep Pacific Northwest low encroaches upon the OR and CA coasts. Meanwhile, hurricane Priscilla will be likely drifting north northwestward just west of the Baja peninsula, and the evolution of all of these features will be the key drivers for weather across the American Southwest. It appears as though the upper high will be the dominant player for Thursday, acting to suppress, but not fully choke convection. Any storms Thursday would favor northwestern zones. Into Friday, the high may stall or even retreat just a bit while subtropical moisture begins to stream northeast of Priscilla into the lower CO river basin and Four Corners. This would potentially increase storm chances for northwestern zones Friday. Uncertainties grow more into the weekend, but the model and ensemble consensus is for the Pacific Northwest low to fill in and move inland as a deep longwave trough. This would keep the western and central zones favored for an influx of subtropical moisture (regardless if Priscilla has any identifiable characteristics left at that point). The longwave trough pattern over the western ConUS could survive beyond that with additional smaller scale lows orbiting through and subsequent fetches of subtropical moisture feeding into the southwestern states. Grand ensemble means between the major global models support this going into next week, which would keep NM active with storms in October. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Isolated to scattered storms along an backdoor front across east central NM this evening. A few of these storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail through mid this evening. The backdoor front surges through eastern NM and through the gaps of the central mountain chain overnight. Showers with embedded storms will be possible across much of eastern NM through the mid morning. Low clouds and IFR ceilings will be likely (60%) across northeast and east central NM, impacting KTCC and KLVS. Low clouds could make it as far west as KSAF and south as KROW but will be VFR ceilings at these sites. The backdoor front will bring a gusty east canyon wind to KABQ with wind gusts potentially reaching Airport Weather Warning criteria. Low clouds and MVFR to IFR conditions remain in place across northeast and east central through the early afternoon hours. Showers and storms will develop along the backdoor front across the west central mountains early Tuesday afternoon moving east into the middle RGV, including KABQ, KAEG and KONM in the last few hours of the TAF period. Storms across central NM will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 No widespread or critical fire weather concerns are forecast for the next several days. Excellent humidity recoveries will start to expand during the overnight and morning periods with scattered showers and thunderstorms offering spotty areas of soaking rainfall, mainly in central NM. Wind concerns will be focused on east canyon events in vulnerable central areas of the state, namely tonight and again Tuesday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 78 51 79 / 0 10 20 20 Dulce........................... 34 73 40 71 / 0 20 30 40 Cuba............................ 41 71 46 70 / 0 30 40 50 Gallup.......................... 34 78 44 77 / 0 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 39 73 46 72 / 0 30 30 50 Grants.......................... 37 72 46 71 / 0 30 40 60 Quemado......................... 40 77 48 75 / 5 20 20 40 Magdalena....................... 49 73 52 71 / 10 50 40 50 Datil........................... 41 73 47 70 / 10 40 40 50 Reserve......................... 42 81 48 78 / 0 20 20 40 Glenwood........................ 48 85 53 81 / 0 20 20 30 Chama........................... 36 67 39 64 / 5 20 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 49 66 50 66 / 10 30 50 50 Pecos........................... 45 63 46 66 / 30 50 60 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 66 44 66 / 20 20 30 30 Red River....................... 35 60 35 61 / 20 30 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 36 63 35 64 / 30 30 40 30 Taos............................ 42 69 44 69 / 10 20 30 30 Mora............................ 41 62 41 66 / 40 50 50 40 Espanola........................ 46 73 49 73 / 10 30 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 49 69 51 69 / 20 40 50 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 72 49 72 / 10 40 50 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 72 56 73 / 5 40 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 76 55 76 / 5 40 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 77 50 77 / 5 40 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 76 55 75 / 5 40 50 30 Belen........................... 50 80 54 78 / 5 40 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 50 76 53 75 / 5 40 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 48 78 51 77 / 5 40 50 40 Corrales........................ 50 76 53 76 / 5 40 50 40 Los Lunas....................... 49 78 53 77 / 5 40 50 40 Placitas........................ 51 72 53 72 / 5 40 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 51 74 54 74 / 5 40 50 30 Socorro......................... 55 81 56 78 / 10 50 50 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 67 49 67 / 10 50 60 50 Tijeras......................... 49 68 51 70 / 10 50 60 50 Edgewood........................ 46 66 49 69 / 10 50 60 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 68 46 71 / 10 60 70 50 Clines Corners.................. 45 60 46 66 / 20 60 70 40 Mountainair..................... 47 69 49 71 / 10 50 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 47 69 48 71 / 20 60 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 55 73 53 73 / 20 60 50 30 Ruidoso......................... 45 63 45 65 / 30 60 60 40 Capulin......................... 43 58 46 67 / 70 40 30 20 Raton........................... 46 61 46 71 / 60 40 30 20 Springer........................ 47 63 47 73 / 50 40 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 45 59 45 66 / 40 50 60 40 Clayton......................... 47 58 50 71 / 70 50 30 30 Roy............................. 47 58 48 67 / 70 50 50 40 Conchas......................... 51 64 52 73 / 60 50 60 40 Santa Rosa...................... 50 63 51 70 / 50 50 70 50 Tucumcari....................... 50 65 51 75 / 70 50 50 40 Clovis.......................... 55 68 54 74 / 60 50 50 30 Portales........................ 55 72 54 76 / 60 60 50 30 Fort Sumner..................... 55 68 54 71 / 50 60 70 30 Roswell......................... 61 75 58 76 / 30 30 50 30 Picacho......................... 55 69 53 71 / 30 50 50 30 Elk............................. 52 67 50 68 / 30 40 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...71