Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
870 FXUS65 KABQ 161803 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1103 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Rain showers and mountain snow showers will move quickly east over western and north central New Mexico this afternoon and overnight. A few inches of snow are expected above 8500 feet, mainly near the Colorado border in the Tusas Mountains. - A Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather from Tuesday night through Thursday night, with mountain snow and valley rain. - There is a moderate chance (50-70%) that winter highlights will be required for accumulating snow in the northern mountains with the mid week system. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 An upper level low is currently lifting northeast into SoCal per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is forecast to continue moving northeast toward the central and southern Rockies tonight, then eject out over the central US Plains on Monday. The upper level trough axis is forecast to become negatively tilted and give a glancing blow to northwest NM later today/tonight, bringing increased cloud cover, breezy to windy and cooler conditions including chances for precipitation. The best chances for precipitation will be along/west of the Continental Divide later today and tonight, where a few lightning strikes can not be ruled out. Snow levels will be high, with only the peaks of the northern mountains forecast to accumulate a few inches of snow. Specifically, the Tusas Mountains near the CO border look to benefit the most from some high mountain snow thanks partially to westerly upslope forcing. Stronger westerly winds aloft will move over northern NM tonight into early Monday and bring windy conditions to the peaks and east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos, including the Central Highlands. A Wind Advisory may be required for gusts to between 50-55mph. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop early Monday across much of eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 The next in a series of Pacific systems will approach on Tue/Wed, then move over the area on Thursday. This system will bring more of a direct hit to NM, with good chances for precipitation. The upper low isn`t overly impressive at around 555dam at 500mb, but 700mb temperatures are forecast to fall to around -5 to -7C Wednesday night into Thursday which would be sufficient to bring a change from rain to snow across the lower elevations of central and western NM. A missing ingredient is a backdoor cold front, which would turn this scenario into a more widespread winter storm event. However, there is some potential for significant snow accumulation in the northern mountains given the current forecast track of the upper low bringing wrap-around precipitation to north central and northeast NM. At this time, there is a moderate chance (50-70%) that winter highlights will be required for this event, mainly in the mountains. Notably colder conditions will come with a Pacific front on Thursday and continue into Friday in advance of the next Pacific system. There is significant model spread with this system, so will refrain from getting into the weeds at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 A line of showers and isolated TS will surge east along a strong cold front entering western NM today. The heavier activity may produce localized MVFR cigs for a couple hours with a gusty west wind shift near 30KT. This front will reach the RGV between 5pm and 7pm. Precip will then focus along the west-facing slopes of the northern mts thru midnight. The NBM shows a 20-40% chance of MVFR cigs persisting overnight around KGUP, KFMN and the northern high terrain with a 10-20% chance of IFR cigs in these same areas. Partial clearing is expected elsewhere over central and western NM with clear skies and gusty west winds over eastern NM all night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as a series of upper level troughs/lows impact the region. The mid week system will bring cooler conditions with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation in the form of valley rain and mountain snow. Vent rates will be a mixed bag of fair to good, but are forecast to take a dip toward the end of the week and into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 37 52 34 / 70 40 0 5 Dulce........................... 62 27 48 19 / 50 90 10 0 Cuba............................ 63 29 51 28 / 40 70 0 0 Gallup.......................... 60 28 51 27 / 70 10 0 20 El Morro........................ 59 33 50 31 / 60 30 0 10 Grants.......................... 64 29 56 28 / 50 30 0 5 Quemado......................... 60 30 54 32 / 40 10 0 5 Magdalena....................... 65 35 59 37 / 0 10 0 0 Datil........................... 60 31 55 32 / 10 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 63 29 59 30 / 40 10 0 5 Glenwood........................ 68 33 64 34 / 50 10 0 5 Chama........................... 57 25 42 20 / 30 90 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 35 51 33 / 10 60 0 0 Pecos........................... 63 32 53 33 / 0 30 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 30 49 28 / 0 60 0 0 Red River....................... 58 24 44 23 / 0 60 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 59 19 46 17 / 0 40 0 0 Taos............................ 63 29 52 23 / 0 60 0 0 Mora............................ 65 31 54 29 / 0 30 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 31 57 27 / 5 60 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 62 34 52 35 / 0 50 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 32 55 30 / 5 40 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 40 58 41 / 5 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 37 61 36 / 5 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 37 63 34 / 10 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 37 61 36 / 10 30 0 0 Belen........................... 72 34 64 31 / 5 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 37 62 34 / 10 30 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 34 63 31 / 5 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 37 62 34 / 10 30 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 71 36 63 32 / 5 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 37 57 37 / 5 30 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 69 37 61 36 / 10 30 0 0 Socorro......................... 74 39 67 38 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 35 53 33 / 5 30 0 0 Tijeras......................... 66 36 57 35 / 5 30 0 0 Edgewood........................ 67 32 57 30 / 0 30 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 32 57 25 / 0 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 33 53 31 / 0 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 35 56 33 / 0 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 66 34 57 33 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 42 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 63 39 56 40 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 66 33 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 69 31 61 26 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 71 33 62 27 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 67 35 59 33 / 0 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 70 41 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 69 36 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 44 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 40 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 44 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 46 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 79 44 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 78 42 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 81 45 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 76 42 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 74 39 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...42