


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
425 FXUS65 KABQ 152350 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 550 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Flooding of creeks, streams, and arroyos will be a concern through tonight across the area in locations with repeated rounds of rainfall. The Animas River and San Juan River near Farmington may observe minor flooding impacts. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of north central NM on today and tonight. - Fog will develop in the northeast highlands to the east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains late tonight, creating abrupt reductions in visibility down to one half mile. - A Freeze Watch is in effect for the Upper Rio Grande Valley for Friday morning. There is a moderate risk (40-60%) of a first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and near Reserve Friday and Saturday mornings. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The strong upper level low over NV continues to spin and produce hefty upper level winds over NM (60-80kts from 500-250mb). This is helping drive increasing bulk shear over much of northern NM (over 40kts of 0-6km shear) and rapid storm motions over 20-30mph (already seen in morning thunderstorms across east central NM). With southerly to southeasterly surface flow across central and NM, upslope flow will be the main driver for initiation of storms across much of the northern mountains this afternoon and evening. With the aforementioned parameters, and modest instability in place (nearly 2000 J/kg SBCAPE on the 18z ABQ sounding), strong to severe storms will be possible. Hail will be the primary threat with any storms given the shear profile. 0-3km SRH on the 18z sounding sits around 300 m2/s2. Given all the parameters, any storm that develops uncontested has the chance to morph into a supercell capable of all hazards. SPC has painted a Marginal Risk across northern NM extending into CO where these variables overlap for the greatest chance at strong to severe storms. Questions remain whether storms can develop with the approaching dry air or if there is enough surface heating. Compared to yesterday, much less low clouds exist, which points to a greater potential of sufficient surface heating meeting convective temperatures. As storms develop through the evening hours, the upper low will continue to push eastward towards the state, continually proving sufficient synoptic lift to regenerate and/or keep showers and storms going throughout tonight. Strong to severe storms are not expected to persist through the overnight hours, but a brief gust or small hail cannot be ruled out. Rather, most of the precipitation tonight should be a beneficial soaking rain to the high terrain of northern NM. Isolated elevated flows in arroyos and small creeks and streams are possible, but with continued fast storm motion, additional flooding impacts are not very likely. Showers and storms should taper off by Thursday morning. A much quieter Thursday is expected, with only a slight chance of showers and storms across far eastern NM where lifting from the approaching low and trough will be situated. Otherwise, temperatures will dip below average across western NM while remaining near to above average elsewhere as a Pacific front cross the state. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 With the Pacific front crossing the state as mentioned in the short term discussion, sharp temperature drops are forecast for the later half of this week into the weekend. Pressure height falls behind the front in addition to clearing skies and calm winds will help temperatures rapidly drop across northern and western NM Thursday night into Friday morning. Several locations may see their first freeze of the season this time, currently with the highest confidence for the Upper RGV. Thus, a Freeze Watch is in effect for this location, which includes Taos. Subsequent shifts may add zones to this Watch as confidence increases in the exact low temperatures. Additional first freezes may occur Friday night into Saturday morning as pressure heights continue to fall slowly. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to begin building in over the late weekend into early next week, though the 12z GFS run has abandoned this in favor of a shortwave trough, which would work to increase winds and precipitation chances. Given this is the first run showing this, the ridge still appears as the more favorable scenario, but will continue to monitor. After this, models and ensembles are better aligned on a deep upper level trough moving through much of the western US early next week, with the trough axis favored to move through NM Monday into Tuesday. This scenario heavily favors windy conditions to return to the state, with a low chance of high elevation rain or a possible dusting of snow. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are confined to north central New Mexico early this evening, and activity will slowly transition to more northeastern areas of the state overnight into the early morning hours Thursday. Storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibilities while also dropping hail and gusty downburst winds. Gusty south southeast winds are impacting many areas, including KABQ where an Airport Weather Warning is in effect (gusts to 35 kt). Low stratus clouds will continue to impact areas just east of the Sangre de Cristos, including KLVS and KRTN where ceilings will drop from MVFR (less than 3000 ft) to IFR (less than 1000 ft). Rain and patchy fog will also reduce visibility in these northeastern areas late tonight through the early morning hours Thursday. Conditions will improve through late Thursday morning and the early afternoon with low clouds and fog eroding and burning off. A very low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will exist along the eastern New Mexico border Thursday afternoon with remaining areas staying mostly clear and VFR with light to moderately breezy conditions prevailing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next several days. Antecedent wet conditions continue across much of the state, and after today`s and tonight`s wetting showers and thunderstorms across northern NM, calm conditions are expected after that. Confidence is slightly increasing that winds will begin to pick up early next week as a potent trough approaches, and locations may begin to approach critical fire weather conditions. In the meantime, hard freezes are possible in northern NM, with freezes possible in western and central NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 60 34 60 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 34 61 23 60 / 70 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 38 60 30 59 / 50 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 31 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 62 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 38 66 29 64 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 64 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 69 40 65 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 39 66 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 38 71 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 74 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 33 56 25 55 / 70 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 46 62 38 60 / 80 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 47 62 36 60 / 80 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 61 33 59 / 70 10 0 0 Red River....................... 38 53 27 51 / 60 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 59 15 56 / 70 10 0 0 Taos............................ 45 64 28 62 / 70 10 0 0 Mora............................ 44 64 32 62 / 80 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 48 69 35 66 / 80 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 50 62 39 60 / 80 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 64 36 62 / 80 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 68 45 65 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 70 42 68 / 40 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 72 41 70 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 69 42 68 / 40 0 0 0 Belen........................... 49 73 39 70 / 30 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 70 40 68 / 50 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 49 72 39 69 / 30 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 51 72 41 69 / 50 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 72 40 69 / 30 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 66 42 64 / 60 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 51 70 41 68 / 50 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 52 76 44 73 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 64 37 60 / 50 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 64 40 62 / 50 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 67 34 62 / 50 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 69 31 65 / 50 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 65 36 61 / 50 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 48 67 37 63 / 30 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 48 68 36 64 / 30 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 74 45 69 / 20 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 67 44 63 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 51 67 34 63 / 30 10 0 0 Raton........................... 51 70 32 66 / 40 5 0 0 Springer........................ 53 72 34 69 / 40 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 67 36 65 / 70 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 56 76 45 70 / 5 5 5 0 Roy............................. 54 72 39 68 / 40 10 5 0 Conchas......................... 57 80 43 75 / 30 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 76 42 71 / 30 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 56 80 46 75 / 10 20 20 0 Clovis.......................... 56 81 51 79 / 0 20 20 0 Portales........................ 56 82 51 80 / 0 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 57 80 47 76 / 10 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 58 84 51 80 / 0 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 52 81 46 76 / 5 10 0 0 Elk............................. 51 79 45 73 / 5 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ216. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...52