Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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425
FXUS65 KABQ 152350 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- Flooding of creeks, streams, and arroyos will be a concern
  through tonight across the area in locations with repeated
  rounds of rainfall. The Animas River and San Juan River near
  Farmington may observe minor flooding impacts.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of north
  central NM on today and tonight.

- Fog will develop in the northeast highlands to the east of the
  Sangre de Cristo mountains late tonight, creating abrupt
  reductions in visibility down to one half mile.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for the Upper Rio Grande Valley for
  Friday morning. There is a moderate risk (40-60%) of a first
  freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San
  Agustin Plains and near Reserve Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The strong upper level low over NV continues to spin and produce
hefty upper level winds over NM (60-80kts from 500-250mb). This is
helping drive increasing bulk shear over much of northern NM (over
40kts of 0-6km shear) and rapid storm motions over 20-30mph (already
seen in morning thunderstorms across east central NM). With
southerly to southeasterly surface flow across central and NM,
upslope flow will be the main driver for initiation of storms across
much of the northern mountains this afternoon and evening. With the
aforementioned parameters, and modest instability in place (nearly
2000 J/kg SBCAPE on the 18z ABQ sounding), strong to severe storms
will be possible. Hail will be the primary threat with any storms
given the shear profile. 0-3km SRH on the 18z sounding sits around
300 m2/s2. Given all the parameters, any storm that develops
uncontested has the chance to morph into a supercell capable of all
hazards. SPC has painted a Marginal Risk across northern NM
extending into CO where these variables overlap for the greatest
chance at strong to severe storms. Questions remain whether storms
can develop with the approaching dry air or if there is enough
surface heating. Compared to yesterday, much less low clouds exist,
which points to a greater potential of sufficient surface heating
meeting convective temperatures.

As storms develop through the evening hours, the upper low will
continue to push eastward towards the state, continually proving
sufficient synoptic lift to regenerate and/or keep showers and
storms going throughout tonight. Strong to severe storms are not
expected to persist through the overnight hours, but a brief gust or
small hail cannot be ruled out. Rather, most of the precipitation
tonight should be a beneficial soaking rain to the high terrain of
northern NM. Isolated elevated flows in arroyos and small creeks and
streams are possible, but with continued fast storm motion,
additional flooding impacts are not very likely. Showers and storms
should taper off by Thursday morning. A much quieter Thursday is
expected, with only a slight chance of showers and storms across far
eastern NM where lifting from the approaching low and trough will be
situated. Otherwise, temperatures will dip below average across
western NM while remaining near to above average elsewhere as a
Pacific front cross the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

With the Pacific front crossing the state as mentioned in the short
term discussion, sharp temperature drops are forecast for the later
half of this week into the weekend. Pressure height falls behind the
front in addition to clearing skies and calm winds will help
temperatures rapidly drop across northern and western NM Thursday
night into Friday morning. Several locations may see their first
freeze of the season this time, currently with the highest
confidence for the Upper RGV. Thus, a Freeze Watch is in effect for
this location, which includes Taos. Subsequent shifts may add zones
to this Watch as confidence increases in the exact low temperatures.
Additional first freezes may occur Friday night into Saturday
morning as pressure heights continue to fall slowly. A ridge of high
pressure is forecast to begin building in over the late weekend into
early next week, though the 12z GFS run has abandoned this in favor
of a shortwave trough, which would work to increase winds and
precipitation chances. Given this is the first run showing this,
the ridge still appears as the more favorable scenario, but will
continue to monitor. After this, models and ensembles are better
aligned on a deep upper level trough moving through much of the
western US early next week, with the trough axis favored to move
through NM Monday into Tuesday. This scenario heavily favors windy
conditions to return to the state, with a low chance of high
elevation rain or a possible dusting of snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are confined to north central
New Mexico early this evening, and activity will slowly transition
to more northeastern areas of the state overnight into the early
morning hours Thursday. Storms will be capable of brief heavy
downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibilities
while also dropping hail and gusty downburst winds. Gusty south
southeast winds are impacting many areas, including KABQ where an
Airport Weather Warning is in effect (gusts to 35 kt). Low
stratus clouds will continue to impact areas just east of the
Sangre de Cristos, including KLVS and KRTN where ceilings will
drop from MVFR (less than 3000 ft) to IFR (less than 1000 ft).
Rain and patchy fog will also reduce visibility in these
northeastern areas late tonight through the early morning hours
Thursday. Conditions will improve through late Thursday morning
and the early afternoon with low clouds and fog eroding and
burning off. A very low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms
will exist along the eastern New Mexico border Thursday afternoon
with remaining areas staying mostly clear and VFR with light to
moderately breezy conditions prevailing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
several days. Antecedent wet conditions continue across much of the
state, and after today`s and tonight`s wetting showers and
thunderstorms across northern NM, calm conditions are expected after
that. Confidence is slightly increasing that winds will begin to
pick up early next week as a potent trough approaches, and locations
may begin to approach critical fire weather conditions. In the
meantime, hard freezes are possible in northern NM, with freezes
possible in western and central NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  60  34  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  34  61  23  60 /  70   5   0   0
Cuba............................  38  60  30  59 /  50   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  31  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  36  62  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  38  66  29  64 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  64  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  69  40  65 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  39  66  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  71  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  43  74  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  56  25  55 /  70  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  46  62  38  60 /  80  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  47  62  36  60 /  80  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  61  33  59 /  70  10   0   0
Red River.......................  38  53  27  51 /  60  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  35  59  15  56 /  70  10   0   0
Taos............................  45  64  28  62 /  70  10   0   0
Mora............................  44  64  32  62 /  80  10   0   0
Espanola........................  48  69  35  66 /  80  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  62  39  60 /  80  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  64  36  62 /  80  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  68  45  65 /  50   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  70  42  68 /  40   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  72  41  70 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  69  42  68 /  40   0   0   0
Belen...........................  49  73  39  70 /  30   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  51  70  40  68 /  50   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  49  72  39  69 /  30   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  72  41  69 /  50   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  72  40  69 /  30   0   0   0
Placitas........................  51  66  42  64 /  60   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  51  70  41  68 /  50   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  52  76  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  64  37  60 /  50   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  49  64  40  62 /  50   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  67  34  62 /  50   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  69  31  65 /  50   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  65  36  61 /  50   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  48  67  37  63 /  30   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  48  68  36  64 /  30   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  74  45  69 /  20   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  67  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  51  67  34  63 /  30  10   0   0
Raton...........................  51  70  32  66 /  40   5   0   0
Springer........................  53  72  34  69 /  40   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  50  67  36  65 /  70  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  76  45  70 /   5   5   5   0
Roy.............................  54  72  39  68 /  40  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  57  80  43  75 /  30  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  76  42  71 /  30  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  80  46  75 /  10  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  56  81  51  79 /   0  20  20   0
Portales........................  56  82  51  80 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  80  47  76 /  10  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  58  84  51  80 /   0  10   5   0
Picacho.........................  52  81  46  76 /   5  10   0   0
Elk.............................  51  79  45  73 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
NMZ216.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52