823
FXUS63 KBIS 051415
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
915 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy with rain, heavy at times, and a Wind Advisory east of
  Highway 83 today.

- Below average temperatures continue for the first half of the week,
  with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the upper 20s to mid
  30s.

- Freezing temperatures are likely across much of western and
  north central North Dakota tonight and possibly Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Rain continues across much of central and portions of western
North Dakota at the time of this morning update, though things
are starting to dry out in the west. Rainfall rates have
somewhat diminished, though are still around 0.2" an hour in
north central North Dakota where the best forcing and highest
PWATs linger. Winds have also begun to pickup in south central
North Dakota, with gusts of 35 to 40 MPH found at a few
locations. Regarding updates, have blended in some short-term
guidance into the PoPs through the early afternoon. Also
starting to consider dropping temperatures even further tonight
due to the favored classic cool pattern scenario, which would
likely necessitate a Freeze Warning across much of the forecast
area tonight. For now, we will wait to see what the mid day
forecast cycle brings.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The low pressure continues to propagate to the north and east.
The rain has already started to end in western North Dakota, and
will continue that trend through today. Winds are starting to
increase across the area as the backdoor cold front has moved into
central ND. Wind Advisory is still valid between now and 1PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Currently aloft, a big trough is influencing west of the
Mississippi River. In the Northern Pacific Ocean, an upper high
pressure creates a large ridge ready to move on shore to the
West Coast. The trough axis is roughly from northwest North
Dakota, down through central Wyoming. At the surface, a low
pressure in is southeast North Dakota, moving northeast. Rain
has been falling to the west and north of the low for at least
the last 10 hours.

Today the low pressure will slide to the north and east. Along
with the low, the rain will move with it, ending west to east as
well. Later this morning, before sunrise, winds will become
very breezy in the southern and eastern portions of the state.
On the back side of the low, a back door cold from is swooping
down from Canada moving southeast through North Dakota. This,
combined with the pressure bubble and the pressure gradient from
the low with create gusts up to 50 mph. The main threat area is
the James River Valley between 6am and 1pm. A Wind Advisory has
been issued from the Missouri River to the Red River for today.
Total QPF amounts from the system are still expected to be
between one and two inches. Portions of the south central and
central have already received over 1.30 inches of rain at
3:30AM. The rest of the day will see highs in the 50s again,
with clouds clearing west to east by sunset. Tonight most of the
west and central will see freezing temperatures in the upper
20s. Monday will be sunny but still in the upper 50s and breezy
winds. Monday night could also see freezing temperatures in the
lower 30s.

This week the Northern Plains will mostly be in a ridging
pattern. This will slowly warm temperatures back into the upper
60s and lower 70s by Friday. Little no rain is expected. Next
weekend another trough could move ashore and create diffluent
southwest flow over the Northern Plains again, creating more
rain. The NBM has chances for rain Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 915 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

MVFR with scattered IFR with the rain. Rain will end west to
east today, and so will the CIGs lifting. Winds will gust near
40kts in the central and east from the northwest, gusts near 25
elsewhere. Clouds will fully clear out later today.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith