902
FXUS63 KBIS 190005
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
605 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- low to medium chances (20 to 60 percent) for rain tonight into
  Wednesday southwest central and into northeast North Dakota.

- Above normal high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s this
  week, with the occasional highs in the upper 30s in the Turtle
  Mountains.

- Below normal temperatures are favored for the last week of
  November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No significant updates needed other than some small tweaks to
sky cover. Will take a look at rain chances late tonight into
Wednesday with the evening update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the state. Showers continue to
progress into the southern James River Valley producing light
rain. Shower will push eastward and diminish this evening. High
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s this
afternoon. Patchy fog could form across much of the state
tonight, but there is uncertainty on how widespread and
impactful fog will be. Overnight low temperatures are forecast
to drop down into the 30s. A short wave will push across the
state tonight, west to east, through early tomorrow. This will
bring rain to the area as warmer air moves in with a warm front
tonight. Precipitation accumulations are forecast to be light
from a trace to around 0.10 of an inch. High temperatures
tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify and progress across
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Thursday into
Friday. This will lead to temperatures lingering in the 40s to
50s through the weekend. Surface high pressure is forecast to
move into the western North Dakota Thursday clearing much of the
cloudy skies. Surface high pressure will lead to low
temperatures into the 20s Friday morning. Northwesterly flow
will dominate the upper level pattern this weekend. However,
there are no waves really forecast to move through the region
leading to dry conditions. Forecast models are picking up on a
potential system next week bringing in cold Arctic air leading
to below normal temperatures. As for precipitation there is a
lot of uncertainty in the ensembles on where a clipper system
may move through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites to begin the 00Z TAF period.
However expect deteriorating conditions as we head through the
night.

MVFR to IFR Stratus is forecast to lift north from South Dakota
into southern ND during the evening hours, possibly reaching
KBIS and KJMS around 06 UTC. MVFR-IFR clouds in Saskatchewan
and northeast Montana are approaching northwest ND as well. A
system will bring increasing clouds to southwest ND this
evening, then rain is expected to move into the state late this
evening or early overnight, and track eastward into south
central ND through 12 UTC Wednesday, and continue to linger over
much of southwest and south central ND through the day
Wednesday, tapering by the afternoon. Patchy fog is also
possible across much of the areas later tonight into Wednesday
morning. Surface flow will remain light southerly tonight,
shifting to the west over western ND later in the day Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH