Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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343
FXUS63 KBIS 251916
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Post-frontal isolated showers will linger through the afternoon
along the south central and James River Valley near the South
Dakota border. Chances for more substantial precipitation and
thunderstorms will likely remain south and east of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening.

Upper level zonal flow will gradually transition to northwest flow
as ridging builds to the west. Wednesday will be dry with highs in
the lower 80s northeast to the upper 80s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The upper ridge continues to build and move east on Thursday, but
begins to break down on Friday with an approaching shortwave
trough. Most of the forcing will remain north of the international
border, but a surface boundary and low pressure should provide
enough lift for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday morning. CAPE and shear both still look fairly
marginal, so we are not expecting severe storms at this time.

Ridging once again builds to the west, keeping us in a mostly dry
weather pattern with only slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms here and there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. Showers may extend and
persist at KBIS/KJMS into early afternoon, and for now have opted
to mention a VCTS/VCSH. The threat for showers and thunderstorms
diminishes quickly this evening with gradual clearing Tuesday
night.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AJ



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