Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH


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