Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO
DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY THIS MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3000-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING A CIG WITH SMOKE
PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER VSBY
REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV


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