


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
962 FXUS63 KBIS 011437 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 937 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances for occasional showers and thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon. - Gradual warming trend through Thursday, with increasing humidity and temperatures in the 90s. - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening through the holiday weekend. A few storms could be strong to severe Thursday evening and Friday, and produce locally heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Hardly a cloud in the sky this morning with light winds as surface high pressure tracks east across the forecast area. No changes to the going forecast with the mid-morning update. UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Some patchy fog occurred around Watford City a few hours ago, with the sunshine now it should be gone. Otherwise the forecast is on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Currently surface high pressure dominates the Northern Great Plains. Aloft a ridge is moving in, with a strong thermal ridge at 850mb. Surface winds across the state today will be variable in direction due to the high pressure moving across. Wind speeds however will be around 10 mph, expect for the far southwest, where winds could be closer to 20 mph from the south. With this ridge moving in, today will start the warming trend up to the mid 90s by Thursday. Today`s highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. None of these day will feature the warming west or southwest wind however, so wouldn`t expect these temperatures to overperform. Thursday and Friday will be breezy. Thursday the eastern half will gust to around 30 mph from the south off the pressure gradient from a surface low and warm front (more on this later). Friday is the exact same thing but from a different low pressure. Wednesday a few little disturbances off the mountains in Montana move through, bringing a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night through Thursday. Then, Thursday morning southwest flow aloft becomes the pattern, which means more thunderstorms. A Colorado Low develops, which will swing a warm front through the state Thursday evening. Most models have CAPE around 1500 J/kg or more. However each model has different timing and strength. For shear we would have plenty for supercells with most models having 35-40kts. Model soundings have a lot of low level helicity and very curved hodographs, indicating a higher tornado threat. All of this is very conditional as very warm temperatures at 850mb will be capping the atmosphere. If the cap can break with strong surface based CAPE from a very hot and humid day, then strong to severe storms will occur. Speaking of hot and humid, latter half of this week will feel very muggy. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s will make North Dakota feel like a tropical state! Another low pressure will enter Friday, with more medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms. This time, precipitable Water (PWAT) could be very high. Models slightly differ on this but the signal has been there a few days. This means the atmosphere could produce a lot of rainfall, leading to flash flooding concerns. Saturday another low looks to move through leading to more chances for showers and thunderstorms. Then next week looks the same with daily chances for rain as a train of Canadian Pacific lows move through. Highs will remain mostly in the 80s next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR CIGs and VIS through the entire period. Light and variable winds tonight and into Tuesday morning. Wind directions will be different throughout the state, but should only be around 12kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith