Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 082131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS IN -SN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS


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