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000
FXUS63 KBIS 061107
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
507 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 UTC FOR THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DID
CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR RENVILLE...WARD...MCLEAN AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 930 UTC.

FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THAT WILL BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE
WARMER NAM HAS HANDLED THE MELTING LAYER ALOFT THE BEST.
THUS...FOLLOWING THE 00 AND 06 UTC NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS ERODED. THIS IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 03 UTC SREF PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBABILITIES AND
HIGH RESOLUTION 08 UTC RAP/HRRR PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS.
THUS...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING
AT 15 UTC RUNNING THROUGH 21 UTC...AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
FROM 18 TO 00 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MANY ROADS ARE
LIKELY SLICK FROM FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY WORSEN TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...A MILD DAY IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOLLOWING THE BETTER
VERIFYING WARMER EDGE OF FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS POST COLD FRONT...A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC FLOW REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD BRINGING A MILD AND DRY PERIOD TO
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE TRANSITIONAL WARM UP ON SATURDAY.  AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
THE REGION...A SOUTHWEST H850 FLOW WILL BRING A CHINOOK TYPE FLOW TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN SCOURING
OUT THE COOL AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THE NAM IS SLOWER. FIRST IMPULSE
WAS TO FOLLOW THE NAM AS OFTEN TIMES A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW IN DEVELOPS FROM THE EXITING HIGH...RESULTING IN A DELAY IN
WARM UP. GFS/ECMWF H850 WESTERLY FLOW OF 35 KTS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE A
STRONG ADIABATIC COMPONENT...SO BLENDED TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
GFS/NAM. WARMED HIGHS INTO THE 40S SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH A
COOLER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND EAST. THIS WOULD GIVE CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INSTEAD OF LOWER 30S FROM NAM.
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REMAINS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH GOOD MIXING OVERCOMING THE SURFACE
INVERSION. EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S WEST...AND 40S
CENTRAL...TO UPPER 30S FAR NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SNOW COVER IS DEEPER.

THE MILD AND DRY FLOW EXTENDS INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CHANGING TO SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND KMOT WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001-002-009-010.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD