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000
FXUS63 KBIS 021509
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
909 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH WINDY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES
REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OTHER THAN TO INCREASE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS OF 12MB/6HR AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
FROM SUNNY AND MILD TO CLOUDY...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BRING MORE MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WHERE SNOWPACK IS A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
HELD TO THE UPPER 20S.

TONIGHT...THE BIG CHANGE ARRIVES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. MILD SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS
DEPICT SUSTAINED WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATE THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL
PRESSURE RISES WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH DAKOTA. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL DEFER
TO THE DAY SHIFT TO ANALYZE THE LATEST DATA AS CURRENT FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL. THANKFULLY IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
PASS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION AS THE POTENT
ANTICYCLONIC JET AND BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH VERY LITTLE NEW SNOW EXPECTED...AND ERODING SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA...THINK BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IMPACTS OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

BY 12 UTC TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE
CLEARED NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...EXPECT HIGHS FOR THE DAY TO BE
REALIZED IN THE EARLY MORNING...FALLING THROUGH DAY IN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. IN REGARDS TO WINDS...THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEARING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE LIMITING FACTOR TO HIGHER
GUSTS IS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
THUS...THIS LEADS TO A BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL BLOWING SNOW
THREAT WITH AN OLD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND...WITH LITTLE TO NO FRESH
SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR NOW WITH AN SPS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
ONWARDS...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL RECOVERY TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD