Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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622
FXUS63 KBIS 232104
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
304 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northern Utah with
secondary low deepening over northeast Colorado. Upper level
analysis places broad trough over the western United States with
compact low spinning down the west coast and strong wave pushing
through the central Rockies. Over our area some fog continues to
linger over far southwestern locations...while a little snow is
trying to push into south central North Dakota where a weak wave
lifting ahead of the main system is noted.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight...initial wave
producing snow over the south central will continue to slide
easterly. In the meantime...aforementioned secondary surface low
deepens and slides into the central plains as upper low
affiliated with aforementioned strong wave closes off over
Colorado. Widespread snow will develop overnight over South
Dakota with us on the northern fringes. Models have backed off
some on snow amount in our area and pulled the northern extent
south a bit. Therefore...have trimmed back on chances/snow
amounts.

On Tuesday...upper low slides along and near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. As mentioned before...the brunt of the
snow will remain over South Dakota with some working in along our
southern tier. Total accumulations of possibly a couple of inches
are expected near the South Dakota border...lesser amounts as you
go north. Secondary bout of light snow may spread across the area
from north to south later in the day and overnight as a weaker
upper low closes off over the southern Provinces and lifts
northeast and modestly cooler air pushes in.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 233 PM CST Mon
Jan 23 2017

A little snow may linger into Wednesday with dry conditions then
expected for the remainder of the week going into the weekend. A
cooler airmass settles into the area for mid-week with highs in
the teens over most locations...with a gradual warm-up expected to
end the week going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

The persistent MVFR ceilings will continue across the region
this afternoon with IFR at KDIK. All TAF sites except KMOT should
become IFR aft 00z. A developing low pressure area across Wyoming
will move east and spread light snow across southern North Dakota
later today into tonight...impacting KDIK after 23z...KBIS aft
00-02z...and KJMS aft 06z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV



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