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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A TRANQUIL NIGHT FOR NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY. AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...RIGHT NOW ALONG THE
BORDER OF SK/MB JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEGOSIS...WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE AM HOURS OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA
OF CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER UP A
BIT.

ON TUESDAY...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND LOW OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY...THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BLOCKING FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LARGE AND PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA (HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HELPING SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: THERE IS A HINT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS DEPICTING MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST ZONAL FLOW.
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
LATE THIS WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF 5000 TO 7000 FEET.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH