482
FXUS63 KBIS 161802
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
102 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Forecast looks to on track. Fog has dissipated and most of the
west and north central are partly to mostly sunny. The exception
is the far south central into eastern ND were clouds remain,
associated with the system that brought us our rain on Tuesday.
Clouds will slowly clear here this afternoon. Kept the chance of
showers over only the far southeast portion of the CWA including
Dickey and Lamoure counties.

UPDATE Issued at 956 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Will let the dense fog advisory expire. Patchy dense fog remains
over Billings and McKenzie counties, along the Little Missouri.
Also in a narrow band from around Glen Ullin to Minot. These areas
will see significant improvement in the next 1-2 hours with nearly
full sun. Elsewhere fog has burned off. No additional changes at
this time.

UPDATE Issued at 840 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Dense fog advisory set to expire at 9 AM CDT. Visibilities have
improved along the eastern and western edges and will cancel the
advisory here. This includes Golden Valley, Slope and Bowman
counties in the west and Rolette, Pierce and Wells counties in the
east.

There are still quite a few areas, including Hettinger, Glen Ullin
and Minot are at 1/4 to 1/2 mile with area webcams indicating
some dense fog as well. Will extend the Advisory another hour for
these areas.

Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Widespread dense fog continues across west central into the north
central sections of the state. Current forecast looks good with a
dense fog advisory through 9 am CDT. No changes to current
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Ample low level moisture left over by significant rains is
producing widespread dense fog across much of western and central
North Dakota this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. A
few lingering showers are likely across the southern James Valley
today as the low pressure system slows down and becomes vertically
stacked across Minnesota. Additional fog development is possible
tonight, mainly across the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Warmer and drier weather in the long term period.

Min RH values will dip into the low 20s Thursday through
Saturday across far southwest North Dakota. Breezy conditions
Thursday and Saturday may lead to elevated fire danger across far
southwest North Dakota where less than an inch of rain has fallen
recently.

An upper level ridge is expected to push in by the end of the
week. Generally, Wednesday and Thursday appear dry. A shortwave
trough drops through the area on Thursday night and Friday
bringing a small chance of showers and thunderstorms northwest to
southeast across the area. Then another slight chance of storms
Sunday. After highs in the 70s Wednesday, daytime highs are
expected to be mainly in the low to mid 80s Thursday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

MVFR cigs continue for KJMS, and will improve now through 21Z.
Low VFR/Marginal MVFR CU developing and will mainly be FEW-SCT
before dissipating after 00Z. VFR the rest of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH