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000
FXUS63 KBIS 100909
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A REPEAT OF THE LAST WEEKEND IN
THAT THEY BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES AND WE DON`T HAVE THE ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE OF LAST WEEK...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION LOW. THE MODELS CURRENTLY BRING A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW SO WILL THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WHILE MORNING LOWS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY CLOUD COVER. CONSEQUENTLY...MORNING LOWS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THEN NEXT TWO MORNINGS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START THE LONG TERM BUT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER
AND WILL USE A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THIS DISTURBANCES PUSHES
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR
THE WEEKEND. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. BOTH MODELS
MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CENTRAL MONTANA EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATING TREND AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THEIR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTURBANCES WEAKER AND FARTHER TO THE
NORTHLAND...PRODUCING STRONGER WARMING THAN THE GFS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAVE MAINTAINED MILDER READINGS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOUTHERLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN ND. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO STRATUS AND FREEZING
FOG.  AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AFTER 18 UTC TODAY LOOKS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY VFR TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TSW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DC/RK