Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 012104
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS






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