Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR TODAY.

CURRENTLY...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED THIS MORNING....RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HOLDING
STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED. WARM AIR SPREADS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MID LEVEL WAA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO MID
50S WEST...POSSIBLY HITTING 60F DEGREES FAR SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
A STEADY 10KT WIND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS AIR TO THE
SURFACE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE STRONG
WAA TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY PLEASANT SUNDAY FOR ALL
BUT THE NORTHWEST WHERE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA
SUNDAY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FEATURE
DURING THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOW 60S SOUTH...AND LOW 50S NORTH. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR NOW KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE STATE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO GENERATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS MONTANA WILL COMBINE FOR A BREEZY DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 06Z FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH




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