Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300502
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1202 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest local radar shows weakening showers southeast of Rugby to
just north of Jamestown. Have kept an isolated shower mention in
the James River Valley next few hours to account for this. These
showers are associated with a cold front which is oriented
southwest to northeast, from near Bowman northeast to Carrington.
Behind the front, a couple showers north of the border should
continue to dissipate with time. Have added patchy to areas of
fog south central and southwest per latest experimental HRRR.
Concur with this idea with the showers that fell across this area
earlier today. The HRRR also maintains the idea of stratus forming
overnight in central ND then siding into the southwest by 12z-14z.

UPDATE Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Evening convection has begun to diminish quickly over western and
south central ND. May be a little thunder yet over southern Wells
into Kidder and Stutsman counties but this is also diminishing. A
little stronger convection remains over far southeast Saskatchewan
into far southeast Bottineau county near Willow City. This
convection is also expected to diminish through the late evening
hours.

A cold front will continue to drop south through the forecast area
tonight. The 30 Jun 00 UTC NAM, RAP and HRRR indicate at least
some light shower activity accompanying the front as it pushes
through the southern half of ND. They also indicate some low level
moisture convergence mainly over southwest ND. The HRRR continues
to develop an area of mvfr-ifr cigs over the south central and
southwest late tonight into early Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings do indicate some low level moisture but for now will
just keep sky cover up a bit over this area compared to points
north which should clear out late tonight. Will let the overnight
shift contemplate a mention of stratus in the KDIK and possibly
KBIS taf with the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms continue to drop south across the northern
tier counties, ahead of a cold front. Scattered thunderstorms also
continue over portions of the south central into the James River
Valley in an area of greater instability and bulk shear. However
the atmosphere will continue to stabilize this evening and the
threat of stronger to possibly severe storms continues to
diminish. With scattered convection across the north central and
into northwest ND, have added a slight chance of thunder to the
west through the evening hours. Slight chance to chance pops
remain over the south central through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 447 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Quick update mainly for thunderstorm chances based on latest
radar. Still some outflow boundary interactions around Bismarck
with an area of moderately unstable air just to the north of
Bismarck. Did have a local gust to 51 knots at the Mandan airport
with the earlier storm so an isolated severe wind or hail report
is possible, but think most storms will remain below severe
levels. Also adjusted pops slightly for convection dropping south
from Canada into the northern tier counties. Updated text products
out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near
the international border with low off towards northeastern
Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with
low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our
area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced
instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. So far
reports have been sub-severe hail though recently some higher wind
reports have come in.

Expect aforementioned showers and storms to continue to shift to
the southeast as short wave continues to slide through. Another
round of showers and storms will be possible as the front slowly
slides through, though these should remain tame, especially over
the north where instability is lower and shear is weak.

On Thursday...quiet weather is expected behind the front. Cooler
airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Cooler temperatures remain into Friday with a warming trend
developing into the holiday weekend bringing near to above
average temperatures going into next week. Westerly upper level
flow develops with a variety of short waves moving through
bringing a near daily chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Mvfr cigs with patchy fog expected to develop at KISN/KDIK/KBIS
between 10z and 14z, although indications are it could linger at
KDIK until possibly 19z before clearing. Otherwise cigs at KMOT
and KJMS look to remain sct, with clearing at all terminals by
early afternoon at the latest.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



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