018
FXUS61 KBTV 291135
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions are expected today, with just some
isolated light showers possible in southern Vermont. These
showers will be the last chance for rain for a while as we enter
into a dry stretch of weather that will last into early next
week. Temperatures will be cooler today and Thursday with some
patchy frost possible in the northern Adirondacks tonight and
Thursday night. Temperatures will gradually warm into the 80s
by late weekend. The next chance for rain won`t come until next
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 722 AM EDT Wednesday...Forecast is in good shape this
morning with no big changes needed. Current temperatures are in
the mid to upper 50s over much of VT, and in the low 50s further
west over northern NY.

Previous discussion...A cold front is moving southward through
the area early this morning. The frontal passage is largely a
quiet one, with just some widely scattered light showers passing
through. Once we get into the later morning hours and the front
progresses into southern VT, expect northern counties to remain
dry for the rest of the day while southern Vermont will see a
10-30% chance of rain showers this afternoon. A cooler and drier
post frontal air mass will work in today. After lows this
morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s, high temperatures will only
climb into the mid 60s to low 70s. More notably, dewpoints today
will be a good 10-15 degrees lower today than what was observed
yesterday, so it will feel quite refreshing. The morning will
start off mostly cloudy, but breaks in the clouds will develop
by midday and the afternoon will be partly sunny.

Temperatures tonight will be chilly in the low to mid 40s for most
areas.  The northern Adirondacks will dip into the 30s, with some of
the colder hollows potentially reaching into the low 30s. Conditions
are not ideal for radiational cooling, so haven`t gone quite as low
as some of the MOS guidance, but wouldn`t be surprised if we see
some very localized patches of frost around Saranac Lake.  Given
that the growing season has started, anyone in the Adirondacks with
vulnerable plants should take precautions to protect plants tonight.

Thursday will be dry with temperatures again in the mid 60s to low
70s and northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.  Dewpoints Thursday will drop
in to the mid 30s, which will create minimum relative humidities in
the 25 to 35 percent range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging will build across the region for
the end of the week, keeping the weather dry with seasonable
temperatures. Both Friday and Saturday will feature partly to mostly
sunny skies. Friday will be the cooler of the two days, with highs
in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Northwest winds will be a touch
breezy on Friday, as well. Expect most locations will top out in the
70s on Saturday, with a few spots approaching 80F. Thursday and
Friday night will be on the cool side as temperatures will dip into
the 40s areawide. Some of the more cold-prone sheltered locations in
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will likely see temperatures
in the mid/upper 30s both nights. Flow start to turn toward the
southwest Saturday night as the ridge axis shifts east of our area,
so lows won`t be as cool as the previous nights; mid 40s to mid 50s
are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging will start to break down early
next week as a series of upper shortwaves traverse across southern
Canada/northeastern CONUS. While exact details are hard to pinpoint
this far out, overall these disturbances look fairly weak with
little in the way of deep moisture. Hence expect dry weather to
persist through at least Monday. A warm front will lift across the
region Tuesday into Tuesday night, which may spark some showers,
mainly in the afternoon. Temperatures will exhibit a slight warming
trend through this period, with highs topping out in the lower to
mid 80s areawide by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A cold front will slowly sink southward
today, bringing some widely scattered showers to southern
Vermont, briefly affecting KRUT with some MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, most TAF sites should remain dry today. Some MVFR
stratus clouds over higher terrain will quickly lift to VFR
levels by 15Z, then scatter out after 18Z. Winds today will be
from the northwest at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Duell