157
FXUS64 KCRP 081840
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1240 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- Critical fire weather conditions across all of South Texas on
  Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions lingering into
  midweek each afternoon.

- Hazardous seas and potential Gale-force winds early Sunday
  morning through Monday morning. Bays rough.

- Tuesday morning low temperatures dropping into the mid 30s
  inland to mid 40s along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front will push through South Texas early tomorrow
morning, entering our northern counties between 08-10Z, reaching
the coast and south of the CWA between 13-15Z. Ahead of the front,
light winds and moisture pooling will pose another threat for fog
development over the Coastal Plains. Only expecting a narrow
broken line of showers and storms over the open waters along the
frontal passage. Once the front passes, fog will quickly disappear
and the focus switches to strong winds and fire weather concerns.

Dry air will filter in quickly behind the front, dropping relative
humidity to 15-30% coinciding with strong north-northeasterly
winds of 20-30 mph and gusts near 40 mph. This combination will
lead to critical fire weather conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect for all of South Texas in the wake of the front through
Sunday evening. We do have to continue to monitor wind trends, if
they go any higher, a Wind Advisory may be necessary for portions
of South Texas. Elevated fire weather conditions will linger each
afternoon through Wednesday, especially over the Brush Country,
due to low relative humidity of 10-30% regardless of the lighter
winds.

Winds will be even stronger over the waters, causing Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the bays and potential Gale-force
conditions over the open waters. Therefore, there is a Small Craft
Advisory and Gale Watch in effect through Monday morning.

Cold air advection, light winds, and mostly clear skies will cause
our coldest temperatures early Tuesday morning. Currently have
lows in the mid 30s far inland, to the mid 40s along the Coast and
Rio Grande. There remains a moderate to high (50-80%) chance for
lows dropping into the 30s inland Tuesday morning. Onshore flow
returns during the day Tuesday, beginning a warming trend that
will continue through the work week. No mentionable rain chances
inland through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR conditions will continue through this evening before a
complicated fog/wind forecast develops with the progression of a
strong cold front. Ahead of the front, moisture will pool along
with light winds, creating favorable conditions for fog to
develop. The front will move southward across South Texas from
08-14Z, so fog and wind forecast timing keeps this in mind at each
terminal. In addition to fog, there will be a few hours of wind
shear at which the surface is generally light but around 2kft feet
northeasterly winds surge around 50 knots. Once the front passes
through, there won`t be as much shear between the surface and
aloft. Strong northeasterly winds will likely be sustained around
25 knots near the end of the forecast, with gusts 30-35 knots.
Lastly, Sunday is a critical fire weather day, be on the look for
any smoke due to fires.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southwesterly flow will continue
tonight, before a strong cold front moves through between 5-9 AM
Sunday morning, bringing only a low (20-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely follow
in the wake over the bays with mainly a strong breeze (BF 6),
whereas strong to near- Gale force (BF 6-7) develops over the open
waters. The stronger winds over the open waters warrants a Gale
Watch through Monday morning due to frequent Gale- force gusts and
building seas over 10 feet. An upgrade to either a Small Craft
Advisory or Gale Warning will be needed ahead of the frontal
passage. Conditions are expected to improve by Monday evening,
with winds below 20 knots and seas subsiding below 7 feet. Gentle
to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow returns Tuesday, strengthening
to a south to southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6)
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh breeze
will follow to close out the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front will push across South Texas north to south
early Sunday morning, between 08-14Z, causing critical fire
weather conditions in its wake through Sunday evening. North to
northeasterly sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40
mph and relative humidity dropping to 15-30 percent, will cause a
significant fire weather threat. Although winds decrease heading
into the work week, minimum relative humidity values will continue
to be very low, dropping into the teens (Mon) and 20s (Tue-Wed),
keeping at least elevated fire weather conditions intact through
the middle of the week each afternoon. In addition, Energy
Release Component (ERC) values are extremely high, ranging from
the 80-95th percentile. Sunday will be the greatest threat for
fire weather, with notable elevated conditions following into the
midweek. Conditions improve below elevated fire weather criteria
by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    65  77  47  66 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          58  74  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            63  75  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             61  77  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          65  75  49  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           60  74  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        63  78  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       68  75  52  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ231-232-236-237.

     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for GMZ250-
     255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94