Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
594 FXUS64 KCRP 221816 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1216 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Scattered showers and storms today, lower chance Monday. - Another system to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday to northern portions of the area. - A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Frontal boundary remains situated just inland of the coast this afternoon and will continue to linger into tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue, especially in the vicinity of the boundary through this afternoon. The best chance for thunderstorms will be in the southern Coastal Bend and Coastal Brush Country. A reinforcing front will try to push into the area tonight into Sunday, but doesn`t look to have much more strength and will not bring any noticeable change. Sunday into Sunday night, onshore flow will pick up and push everything back north with an advancing warm/moist airmass. This will lead to well above normal temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. Records are unlikely to be broken, but we`ll approach them (upper 80s) for VCT and CRP. The big change comes Tuesday night into Wednesday. The well advertised front still looks on track to push through the area mainly before sunrise Wednesday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler for much of the area Wednesday into Thursday with ensemble spreads generally between 65 and 75 degrees area wide both days. While the airmass will be drier, the deeper dry air remains north of our area and will keep the colder temps there. Our low temps for Thursday morning could call into the 40s for inland areas, but will be mainly in the 50s otherwise. As far as rain chances, we`re not ending the drought anytime soon. While we`ll keep low end rain chances Sunday and then moderate rain chances north Monday (shortwave), rainfall amounts will generally be light (under half an inch). We`ll have another low chance for showers and storms with the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, but again, nothing notable in expected rainfall amounts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Scattered showers and a few storms will impact mainly CRP/ALI terminals today with lower chances at other sites. While have no mention for VCT, a boundary remains just to the east of the area and will have convection to the east. Have leaned toward a "higher confidence" coverage for convection through all TAFs and while it is noted in most likely times, with a very moist environment and boundaries/weak disturbances in the area, there`s a very low chance of convection at any site any time through the period. Will maintain mainly MVFR to VFR CIGS through the period, though within showers could briefly see lower CIGS. Winds remain mainly light through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east-southeasterly winds will continue through Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also remain possible through the weekend as a quasi-stationary front is draped over the area. Onshore flow is expected to briefly strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night through Monday night ahead of the next frontal passage, which will bring another chance of showers and storms.The next front is forecast to move offshore by midweek turning winds to the north- northeast and increasing flow to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible through the next few days, but mainly light amounts are expected. A couple periods of moderate to strong winds are in the forecast - first, on Monday with a southeasterly flow ahead of our next could front, then Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the front with a northerly flow. Min RH will decrease behind the front, but at this time doesn`t reach critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 67 80 71 85 / 30 40 10 10 Victoria 59 80 66 84 / 0 10 10 50 Laredo 69 85 71 85 / 50 30 10 10 Alice 64 82 68 88 / 30 40 10 10 Rockport 67 80 72 84 / 20 30 10 20 Cotulla 64 80 69 84 / 30 40 20 30 Kingsville 66 82 69 87 / 40 40 10 10 Navy Corpus 72 80 75 82 / 40 40 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...PH/83