718
FXUS64 KCRP 090527
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Potential for hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal
flooding, Thursday and Friday. Medium to high chance advisories will
be needed.

- Small Craft Advisory is in effect Thursday through Friday morning.

- Low (10-30%) chance of mainly showers along the Coastal Bend and
southern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The main forecast issue will be the potential for minor coastal
flooding and moderate to high rip current risk through the weekend.
A persistent northeast to east flow over the coastal waters are
forecast to strengthen Thursday and Friday, which will aid in
driving the water up toward the dunes. However, we will be moving
toward a quarter moon and swell periods are forecast to remain
around 7 seconds through Saturday, all of which are not helpful in
pushing the water up to the dunes. Am expecting that the stronger
northeast flow and increasing waves will also increase swell periods
slightly higher than models indicate, thus leading to a medium to
high chance that Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed Thursday
and Friday, but less sure Saturday. In addition, a northeast flow or
long-shore flow is less conducive for a high rip current risk.
Therefore, will continue with a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents likely
through Fri. The swell is forecast to increase to around 8 seconds
by Sunday, but wind speeds decrease and switch around to east and
southeast leading to less confidence for minor coastal flooding, but
higher confidence in a High Risk of Rip Currents. For now, the
potential for minor coastal flooding is low to medium (10-30%) for
next week. A medium (30-50%) chance of Moderate to High Risk of Rip
Currents will continue through early next week.

Thursday is expected to be the last day for any rain chances with 10-
30% chance of mainly showers along the Coastal Bend and southern
Brush Country and southern Rio Grande Plains. This is in response to
fairly deep moisture (PWATs of 1.5-1.9 inches) combined with a mid
level short wave tracking south to southwest around the base of a
mid/upper level high pressure system. In addition, there is a very
weak east-west oriented surface boundary/troughing, providing low
level convergence.

The high pressure is forecast to build over S TX bringing drier air
into the area Friday. PWATs are forecasted to drop to 1.0 or lower
through the weekend. Moisture is expected to increase next week, but
the high pressure aloft will remain dominant, keeping rain chances
low. Can not rule out a few rogue showers along the sea breeze next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected across South Texas through Thursday
evening. Light variable winds early this morning will shift
northeasterly and strengthen to 10-15 knots by midday and continue
through this afternoon. Gusts around 20 knots will most likely occur
at ALI and CRP. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the day from CRP-ALI-LRD but greatest coverage will remain
south over Deep South Texas. I wouldn`t be surprised if amendments
will be needed through the day for pop-up convection between the
three aforementioned sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A northeast wind will strengthen to a fresh to strong (BF 5-6) flow
by early Thursday morning and continue through Friday, then
weakening to a moderate (BF4) flow over the weekend. Low to medium
(20-50%) chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday. Low
rain chances of 5-20% Friday, then dry the rest of the weekend and
into early next week as drier air filters across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

RH values will remain generally moderate through Friday (>30%)
with light to moderate winds. Drier air is expected to move across
the region through the weekend with briefly low RH values
slightly below 30%, mainly northern Brush Country to the Rio
Grande Plains. However, a generally weak wind should preclude any
fire weather threats.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  73  89  68 /  20  10  10   0
Victoria          92  67  92  61 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            94  71  94  67 /  20  10   0   0
Alice             92  69  93  64 /  20   0   0   0
Rockport          90  74  89  70 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           93  69  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  70  90  65 /  30  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       87  77  86  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 10 AM CDT
     Friday for GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94