113
FXUS64 KHUN 061538
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
938 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 938 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - Low to medium chances of fog tonight, with low to medium
   chances of freezing fog over northeast Alabama and southern
   middle Tennessee later tonight as temperatures drop to freezing
   or just below.

 - Low to medium (20-40%) chances of periodic light rain late
   Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

 - Colder temperatures return early next week with sub-freezing
   lows Monday night, followed by a warming trend through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 938 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A rather large upper trough spans much of the CONUS through
tonight, with a shortwave ripple moving over the region through
this afternoon. By this evening, zonal flow near the base of the
trough will take hold over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a
surface boundary remains over the northern Gulf, with high
pressure to the north over the Tennessee Valley and up over the
Appalachians. This feature will begin to gradually shift to the
northeast later tonight as a cold front approaches the region.

The main thing we`ll be monitoring today is the low stratus cloud
deck. As the previous shift mentioned, there remains uncertainty
whether these clouds will break up through the day. If the clouds
remain socked in, temperatures will not warm as much and lead to
highs only topping out in the 40s for most locations. However, if
clearing does occur this afternoon, temperatures could warm into
the lower 50s. Our current forecast calls for the clouds hanging
on a bit longer through the afternoon, with clouds breaking up
late this afternoon through this evening. Thus, cooler high
temperatures are anticipated at this time (mid to upper 40s).

As for tonight, there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of fog
development. Some of this may actually be freezing fog over
northeast Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee as
temperatures drop to freezing or just below. Overall, expect lows
in the lower to mid 30s. As clouds increase once again late
tonight into Sunday and as the sun rises, any fog will then
dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 938 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The base of the aforementioned upper trough will amplify just a
bit and swing over the Southeast through Monday. Additionally, a
surface cold front will traverse the region Sunday night as well,
with high pressure pushing into the region from the west by Monday
afternoon. With this front will come low to medium chances
(20-40%) of rain for all of north Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee. Thunderstorms are not anticipated with this activity
due to the lack of any instability. As the front pushes to the
southeast early Monday morning, rain chances will taper off. Dry
conditions will then return for the afternoon.

A bit warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday and Sunday
night, but not by too much. Highs Sunday are forecast to only
reach the lower 50s due to cloud cover, with mid 30s to around 40
degree lows Sunday night. Behind the cold front will come colder
air due to cold air advection from the northwest. Highs on Monday
are expected to merely top out in the lower to mid 40s. Some areas
in the higher terrain of northeast Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee may see cooler highs, in the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Back to sub-freezing lows again Monday night with clear skies and
high pressure building in. Lows in the mid 20s are expected. This
intrusion of colder air should be brief, as warm air advection
ahead of another front moving through the western Great Lakes
early next week keeps things on the warmer side. Highs in the
lower 50s should warm into the 55 to 60 degree range on Wednesday
with lows warming as well into the lower to mid 30s.

This front seems to have a hard time pushing into the southeast
and hangs up over eastern Texas into the Ohio Valley. However, a
weak pre-frontal trough axis looks to be close enough to produce a
few showers over the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

This weak pre-frontal trough axis may focus a bit more moisture
and forcing over the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night,
before pushing east of the area. This should pull the precipitation
east with it as colder and drier air moves into the area. Highs
look to drop back down into the upper 30s to lower 40s again on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

IFR-level stratus continues to blanket the entire forecast area
this morning, but very low chances for light rain will remain well
south of the terminals and a light westerly flow has thus far
inhibited development of BR/FG. There remains a considerable
amount of uncertainty regarding when the stratus layer will
eventually begin to mix out (if it does so at all), but at this
point we have optimistically indicated a temporary return to VFR
conditions this evening. However, with minor low-level moisture
advection expected to begin ahead of a secondary cold front, there
is some concern that low stratus (and perhaps some mist/drizzle)
may begin to redevelop prior to 12Z Sunday, with either no (or
only a brief) opportunity for clearing this evening. Sfc winds
will remain light for the duration of the TAF period, with winds
shifting to SSE by late mid/late aftn.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...70/DD