088
FXUS64 KHUN 231736
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1136 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Mostly dry weather forecast through Monday morning.

 - High chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into
   Tuesday night, with a low chance of severe thunderstorms (1 out
   of 5 Risk from SPC).

 - Cooler temperatures moving in late this week (on and around
   Thanksgiving).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1041 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Clouds are quickly diminishing across the Tennessee Valley this
morning as we mix out. This will result in ample sunshine across
the area for the remainder of the day. Some 5-10 kt NNE breezes
were noted in wake of the frontal boundary that will attempt to
reinforce a slightly cooler and drier air mass. However, with
plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will still be able to make
it into the mid to upper 60s by the mid/late afternoon. It will be
a good evening for radiational cooling, as temperatures will fall
off quickly after sunset. However, some cloud cover will begin to
filter into the area after Midnight ahead of the next frontal
system -- helping to keep low temperatures from falling past the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1041 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Monday will be a transition day across the Tennessee Valley as the
area of high pressure shifts off to the north and east. This will
place our mean flow out of the south to southwest, allowing Gulf
moisture to advect back into the region. This can be seen in
dewpoints which will rise to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees by
Monday evening/night -- and PWATs which will rise to around 1.2"
(85-90th percentile per BMX sounding) climatology for the date.
This warm air advection will allow temperatures to reach the low
to mid 70s by the afternoon despite the cloud cover increasing
across the region.

Meanwhile, a fast-moving shortwave trough will shift from the
Southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley Monday night into
Tuesday, with its associated cold front progged to push through
the Mid South and Tennessee Valley during the late Monday night to
Tuesday morning/early afternoon timeframe. Thus, the table will
be set for another round of showers and thunderstorms -- with
medium to high (60-100%) forecast late Monday night and increasing
to 80-100% forecast through most of the day on Tuesday.

A 40-50 kt LLJ moving over northern/central Alabama late Monday
night through Tuesday morning will create a favorable shear
profile for some organized convection. This is evidenced by not
only bulk shear values, but low-level shear as well (on the order
of 25-30 kts) and 0-1 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 (with
large looped hodographs). What is far less certain, however, is
what if any SBCAPE/MLCAPE will be available during this morning
timeframe (with moist guidance struggling to show much in the way
of any SBCAPE/MLCAPE developing). Should we get 150-300 J/kg (or
higher) of SBCAPE, this may be enough to create more concern for
strong to severe storms given the very favorable shear in place --
with the primary concerns being damaging winds and a tornado or
two. Higher confidence in appreciable thermodynamics developing
will be for locations further south (especially along the Gulf
Coast) and there is a decent chance the earlier arrival of
showers/storms in the TN Valley during the morning hours pinches
the better CAPE to the south.

Still some things to sort through over the next 36-48 hours.
Based on this conditional threat, SPC has placed the area in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather on Tuesday (with
again most of the focus being before Noon). Should the timing
trend a little later, that could mean the potential for better
destabilization this far north and subsequently a higher threat
for some severe storms. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are
forecast across the region -- but given how dry we`ve been of
late, don`t expect much in the way of flooding concerns with this
activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Rain showers will taper off Tuesday night, with an appreciable air
mass change in wake of this front. High temperatures will drop to
the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday and the upper 40s to
lower 50s on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) and Black Friday as a
cooler, drier continental air mass filters into the region. Thus,
despite clear and sunny conditions each day, breezy northerly
winds will keep temperatures on the chilly side -- and highs below
normal heading through the remainder of the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend and the month of November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period
with light NNE winds.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24