982
FXUS63 KILX 092033
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and breezy conditions stick around through Monday night.
  Wind chill values Monday morning will dip down into the upper
  single digits to teens.

- Scattered snow showers redevelop this evening, potentially
  resulting in minor snow accumulations, brief reductions in
  visibility, and some slippery spots on roads.

- A lake-effect snow band is forecast to bring accumulating snow
  to east-central Illinois tonight. There is a 20-40% chance for
  over 2 inches of snow in parts of Champaign and Vermilion
  counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Upper air analysis shows deep troughing over the eastern half of the
CONUS with a surface low positioned over Pennsylvania. Cold, breezy,
and downright raw conditions are being observed over central
Illinois this afternoon with temperatures sitting in the low to
middle 30s and wind chills in the 20s. Light snow showers continue
this afternoon, though should generally wane to mainly flurries over
the next few hours. Regional radar mosaic shows a band of lake-
effect snow stretching from eastern Lake Michigan into north-central
Indiana, with some enhancement from this over Vermilion/Edgar
counties as of 2 pm. Overnight lows will be a solid 10-15 degrees
cooler than normal with values dipping down into the low to mid 20s.
Breezy winds overnight will send wind chills into the upper single
digits to teens.

Precipitation chances will increase heading into the
evening/overnight hours as a lobe of vorticity dives south through
the area, steepening low to mid-level lapse rates to around 7-9
C/km. High resolution models show snow shower activity entering west-
central Illinois around 00Z/6 pm then sliding into southeast
Illinois around 06Z/midnight. Although models suggest the snow
showers will be more cellular in nature, conditions for squall-like
activity are above par with the SNSQ parameter >1 and SBCAPE
between 15-45 J/kg. However, low-level frontogenesis doesn`t look
particulary impressive, which should limit the threat for linear
squall development. Despite this, expect brief reductions in
visibility (below 1 mile at times) and light snow accumulations
with any robust showers tonight.

Lake-effect snow ramps up overnight as winds turn north-
northeasterly over Lake Michigan. Models show the lake enhanced
showers stretching as far west as the I-57 corridor overnight into
Monday morning, with a more localized band nosing into parts of
Champaign and Vermilion counties. Things look quite impressive for
heavy accumulating snow north and northeast of here, though recent
guidance continues to show the potential for higher amounts to nose
into our area. The 09.12Z HREF shows mean snow accumulations over
Champaign and Vermilion counties upwards of 1-2 inches, though worst
case scenario forecasts have a small area in northern parts of the
counties exceeding 3-4 inches. As of now, there is about a 20-40%
chance that these areas see over 2 inches of snow. This will result
in reduced visibility in snow showers and some slippery spots on
roads where snow sticks.

Cold and breezy weather remains through Monday, with daytime highs
in the low to middle 30s. The upper trough will lift northeast by
Tuesday as surface high pressure slides off to our south. Southerly
return flow will send milder weather back northward, with well above
normal temperatures expected to arrive by the end of the week. In
fact, the NBM shows highs by Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Upper ridging will keep things mostly dry this week, with early
indications for a strong system to bring beneficial rain next
weekend.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A handful of disturbances rotating about an expansive upper level
low pressure system will give periodic opportunities for snow
showers through tonight, resulting in fluctuating flight
conditions. Surface heating should lift cloud bases but also maintain
broken ceilings around FL030 to FL040 through the afternoon.
Within snow showers, ceilings and especially visibilities may
drop sharply. CAMs generally suggest a lull in snow shower
activity between 20-24z, with another batch arriving from the
north and potentially impacting the terminals between roughly
01-08z. Then, there is potential for a lake effect snowband to
bring more persistent snow and attendant visibility reductions to
CMI, and potentially (30% chance) BMI and DEC after roughly 08-09z.
In addition to snow, a mesoscale low developing with that band
may also bring another uptick in winds, with gusts to 30+ kt again
for several hours Monday morning. Otherwise, expect northwest
gusts to 30 kt early to mid afternoon today, easing to 20-25 kt
this evening.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$