835
FXUS63 KILX 251705
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1105 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, low stratus, and drizzle across central Il this
  morning. A cold front moves through tonight, resulting in
  sharply colder conditions for Wednesday through Friday. Highs
  for Thanksgiving will only be in the 30s.

- Strong northwesterly wind gusts are expected on Wednesday, with
  a 40-60% chance for gusts over 45 mph. A Wind Advisory has been
  issued for 09z Wednesday to 00z Thursday for north of a
  Schuyler County to Vermilion County line. The greatest impact of
  the winds will be felt on north-south oriented roadways like
  I-55, I-57, and I-39.

- A weekend system is expected to bring a mix of precip, including
  rain and snow. The exact timing, precipitation types, and
  accumulation amounts remain subject to change, but there is a 30-50%
  chance of 2" of snow. Those with travel plans this weekend
  should continue to monitor for updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The upper low is passing off to our northwest this morning. The
remaining precipitation is lingering with some light showers or
drizzle. Low stratus/patchy fog/drizzle is filling in behind the
precipitation. The showers/drizzle should be ending as we go into
late morning, but we stay socked into the low clouds all day. The
arctic cold front will pass through central and southeastern IL from
00z to 06z tonight. There could be some sprinkles or light showers
along the front as it passes through.

Behind the front, strong winds on Wednesday and a bitterly cold snap
for Thanksgiving enter the region. A wind advisory has been issued
for 09z Wednesday to 00z Thursday for north of a Schuyler County to
Vermilion County line. There is a 40-60% chance (LREF) of wind gusts
over 45 mph Wednesday afternoon north of a Monmouth to Tolono line,
and Wednesday is a high travel day ahead of the holiday. The
greatest impact of the winds will be felt on north-south oriented
roadways like I-55, I-57, and I-39. Widespread 35-45 mph wind
gusts out of the west-northwest are expected on Wednesday with the
strong pressure gradient passing overhead.

Highs today will be in the upper 50s. Tomorrow (behind the
front), highs only get up to the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows each
morning from Thursday to Saturday are in the upper teens to mid
20s. There is a 50-80% chance of apparent temperatures being below
15 degrees north of I-70, according to the LREF, for Thanksgiving
morning.

The next system that is on deck to move through the forecast area
comes Friday night into Sunday morning. Exact timing of when the
system moves through and precipitation transition is still too
uncertain at this time. Friday night should start out as snow.
Temperatures during the day Saturday look to warm to near/just
above freezing, so precipitation type could transition to a
rain/snow mix. With freezing surface temps and near freezing air
temps, there is a small chance that there could be period of
freezing rain Sunday morning, but confidence is too low at this
time, so it was left out of the forecast. The NBM probability of
a trace of ice is less than 10% area-wide through the weekend.
The LREF is showing a 30-50% chance of 2 inches of snowfall from
Sat 06z to Sun 06z north of I-70. Continue to check updated
forecasts to see how the system this weekend will play out,
especially if you have any travel plans for the weekend following
Thanksgiving.

After this weekend, the GFS and NBM is showing a scenario of
training systems through the week, next week. The Euro and
Canadian is showing a high pressure building over the region
behind an additional system Tuesday, without any training systems.
This will be something to watch as we move closer to the first
week of December.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Visibility has improved this morning across the regional terminals,
but with IFR ceilings still lingering. Our expectation is for
spurious improvement to ceilings into afternoon, with occasional
breaks in the clouds supporting MVFR conditions. This will be the
exception to the rule, however, with upstream observations across
Missouri and southeast Iowa supporting mostly IFR ceilings ahead
of an impending cold front.

Scattered showers may precede frontal passage this evening, and
these have been covered by a PROB30 group, generally between 21z-05z.

Model guidance then supports a brief improvement in both ceiling
and visibility immediately following the cold front, with
conditions moving to VFR from west to east behind the front,
namely between 03z-07z. Nevertheless, low stratus will quickly
move in from the north thereafter, knocking flight conditions
back down into the MVFR range prior to 12z.

Gusty west winds will accompany frontal passage tonight, as
sustained speeds ramp up to around 20 kts with occasional gusts
between 35-40 kts by around 12z Wednesday.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$