534
FXUS63 KILX 050801
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
201 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While another bitterly cold night is ongoing, some relief is
  expected today through the weekend. Highs today in the upper 20s
  to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.

- A series of disturbances will bring precipitation chances every
  few days through next week. The first one arrives Saturday
  night, bringing some snow. There is a 40-70% chance of greater
  than 2 inches of snow north of a Havana to Bloomington line with
  this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The freezer door has been left open tonight. Temperatures north of I-
70 have dropped below 0 degrees in places. Luckily, the winds have
been light or calm, so the wind chills haven`t been much worse than
the actual temperatures. This evening`s 00z sounding did not support
dense fog development with a very dry profile. However, there are
patches of fog developing. Where there is fog, there could be slick
spots as the moisture freezes to surfaces.

Temperatures today improve from what we saw yesterday by getting up
into the upper 20s to mid 30s for highs and lows in the upper teens
to mid 20s. South of I-70 could see above freezing today.
Temperatures will be similar through the weekend. Sunday night could
drop back into the single digits again north of I-70 (teens south of
I-70). There will be brief

Saturday night into Sunday, a quick system will pass through central
IL bringing a quick bout snow. Timing looks to be from 00z to 12z
Sunday. There is a 40-70% chance of greater than 2 inches of snow
north of a Havana to Bloomington line through 18z Sunday. There is
less than a 40% chance of 0.5 inch of snow by I-72, with chances
decreasing as you move south. South of I-70 will begin to warm near
to above freezing as the sun rises Sunday, which could make the
precipitation change over from snow to rain or even a rain/snow mix
for a brief time before the system moves off to the east. North of I-
70, this looks like a good set up to get 1-4 inches from this system.

After the weekend, there is a signal for additional clipper systems
to move across the northern CONUS, bringing additional precipitation
to central and southeastern IL throughout the week. Depending on
whether the systems take a more northern or southern track will
determine our precip-type. First let`s get through this weekend`s
system, then we will dive further into the weeds on how next weeks
train of systems will affect the forecast area.

One thing we can focus on is the hope for above freezing
temperatures for the middle of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will
provide a great breather between cold spells. Highs look to get into
the upper 30s to mid 40s, with Tuesday night lows only in the low
30s. Then temperatures get cold again for the end of the week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Appears the airmass will be too dry to get appreciable fog
development tonight. 06z TAFs will have a 4 hour tempo group for
MVFR visibilities at KBMI-KDEC-KCMI from 08-12z. Aside from this,
VFR conditions will dominate through Thu evening. SSW winds will
increase by late morning near 10 kt and continue through evening.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Record low temperatures for today and Friday:

Location         Today          Friday
========        ========       =========
Bloomington     -7 (1893)      -2 (1895)
Champaign       -6 (1893)       0 (1895)
Decatur         -6 (1893)       2 (1905)
Jacksonville     2 (2006)      -3 (1895)
Lincoln          1 (1929)       3 (2005)
Peoria          -1 (1991)       0 (2005)
Springfield      0 (2006)       4 (1895)

Geelhart


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$