993
FXUS64 KJAN 222106
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
306 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger
    thunderstorms remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday.

  - Seasonably cool conditions possible in the wake of the front
    late week, with light frost possible around Thanksgiving
    holiday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will build across
the Ozarks into the OH Valley by late Sunday. There could be a
brief round of fog later tonight with the weak front and humid
boundarly layer, but enough mixing should occur to help keep the
stratus above ground for the most part. Otherwise, with drier air
and shortwave ridging, dry and milder conditions are expected
tomorrow.

Next week (Monday-Friday): A strong cold core is progged to move
across eastern CO and eject out of the Intermountain West and into
the Central Plains in NE to KS in the Central Plains. Sharp jet
energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will swing
across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by early
week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more
potent surface 1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive
a stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong
southwesterly shear (30- 55kts) will set up but remain line-
parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 64-68F
degree range along and south of Interstate 20.

With southwesterly mean bulk shear and timing generally close to
the diurnal minimum, this looks to be short duration potential.
However, there are some lapse rates, favorable thermo (6C to 6.5C
in mid levels and 700 J/kg to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE) and slower
eastward progression there remains low end severe potential Monday
night persisting into Tuesday afternoon. Amplitude differences of
the closed low aloft/shortwave persist, with the Euro slightly
digging a little more. This will affect how long rain chances
persist another 24-36 hours.

Rain totals remain significant with amounts continueing to be up
to about 1.5 inches (locally higher in convection or training
line- parallel storms). However, recent dryness and limited
preceding rain will help mitigate any flooding concerns and will
continue to hold off on messaging. Synoptic discontinuity is
decreasing, with Euro and GFS trending towards further north
amplitude in northern Plains to Great Lakes, but intensity of
closed low is question.

Northerly flow/subsidence and a 1028-1033mb surface high and
drier thermal profiles (PWs around quarter inch) favor dryness and
seasonably cooler conditions, 5-8F below, into late Thanksgiving
week (Thursday into Friday). Low temperatures in the low 30s to
low 40s are possible both Wednesday night through Thursday night,
with a light frost possible Thursday night. /DC/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Ceilings and visibility have improved from this morning and are
projected to remain VFR across all zones for the rest of the day.
Temperatures lowering overnight and residual moisture locked into
the low levels from previous days` rainfall will allow for another
round of stratus development along eastern zones tonight./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       51  71  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      51  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     51  70  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
Hattiesburg   53  76  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       50  72  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
Greenville    51  68  50  74 /   0   0   0  30
Greenwood     51  70  49  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/OAJ/