436
FXUS64 KJAN 180159 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
859 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
   morning for parts of the area.

 - Post frontal boundary: fall-like temperatures and dry air.
   Rain chances return Monday evening into Tuesday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A quiet and pleasant evening is underway. The only change planned
for the near term forecast is the addition of patchy fog across
much of south MS and central LA within the increasing isentropic
ascent regime ahead of tomorrow`s storm system. HREF
probabilities for 1/2 mi or less visibility are close to 50
percent over much of this area. For some of the area, it will
be low ceilings rather than fog. No other changes are planned at
this time. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Through Saturday Night:

We are continuing to monitor a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms
tomorrow evening into early Sunday morning. This is our first "cool
season" type severe weather event of the season, so it`s important
to refresh yourself on severe weather preparedness plans as you roll
into the weekend.

A lead shortwave disturbance will trigger thunderstorms over the
Southern High Plains and Ozarks region during the afternoon
Saturday, with a cold front and combined outflow boundary eventually
sweeping east across the Gulf Coast region tomorrow night/Sunday
morning. In advance of the approaching system, dew points in the
upper 60s should advect northward into our forecast area during the
afternoon and evening. Deepening moisture values may support
scattered showers or a few thunderstorms initially. Then with
greater forcing aloft with the shortwave and at the surface with the
front/outflow, a more organized wave of thunderstorms should move
across our forecast area mainly after sunset tomorrow night.

High-res model guidance show MLCAPE values of up to around 1000-1500
J/kg ahead of the front, and around 35-40 kts of deep-layer wind
shear. Low-level shear profiles may also be favorable enough for a
marginal tornado risk with storms along the squall line. Therefore
have made sure tornado wording has been included in the latest
Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics. Main threat for wind and
tornadoes will be in northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and
northwestern Mississippi. A marginal risk for severe storms will
spread south and east from that area overnight. Locally heavy
rainfall is also expected, but dry ground and fast moving storms
should limit any flash flooding potential.

Sunday through Friday:

The cooler air mass behind this front will feel refreshing. Temps
should fall a few degrees below normal for mid October, with a few
nights dropping into the 40s especially in the hillier cooler
locations. Afternoon highs mostly in the 70s. A shortwave trough
moving over the central CONUS around Tuesday looks to be moving in
too quickly for any kind of moisture recovery, but a few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out. The reinforcing cool front with that system
will preserve the cooler temps into late week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the area this evening. Early Sat
morning, low clouds and patchy fog will develop across portions
of south MS and central/south LA, with categorical reductions
possible around daybreak especially at HBG/PIB. VFR conditions
should return by mid-morning as fog dissipates and lower clouds
mix out. S/SE winds will be gusty at times Saturday afternoon,
with some gusts in the 20-25 kt range. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  87  65  74 /   0  20  90  10
Meridian      64  89  65  77 /   0  10  80  20
Vicksburg     65  89  65  74 /   0  20  90  10
Hattiesburg   66  89  68  81 /   0  20  80  20
Natchez       64  89  65  76 /   0  30  80  10
Greenville    65  88  61  70 /   0  20  90  10
Greenwood     65  89  61  71 /   0  10  90  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/NF