867
FXUS64 KJAN 271802 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1202 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Much cooler and drier air will continue to surge into the area
    for the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - A quick round of rainfall and perhaps a few storms this
    weekend will be followed by colder conditions as we go into
    next week.

  - We are monitoring the potential for winter weather over
    northwest portions of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Today through Friday night: Overall, the weather pattern will be
cold for the next week in our forecast area due to a dominant
polar stream over central and eastern portions of the CONUS. In
the near term, cold high pressure ridging southward through the
lower MS Valley will bring continued dry conditions with below
normal temperatures. A freeze is probable for most of the area
tonight, and for eastern portions of the area Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday: A fast-moving shortwave trough will zip
through the polar stream and bring a round of light to moderate
rainfall, especially in the late Saturday to early Sunday time
frame. Forecast confidence for limited impacts is high given the
progressive nature of the system, modest moisture return, and
limited low level instability. With that said, shear parameters
will be impressive, so we will need to monitor for any
obs/guidance trends that suggest greater destabilization.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Behind the weekend system, a
colder airmass will advect into our region ahead of the next
shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains in the cold cyclonic
flow aloft. The consensus of global model solutions suggests that
backing low/mid level flow ahead of the trough will increase
moist isentropic ascent and result in the quick onset of light to
moderate rain, especially as we approach daybreak and go through
the day Monday. Near surface wind trajectories emanating from
the cold centered over the midwest region will help to maximize
and focus shallow cold air advection into the upper ArkLaMiss
Delta region into north central MS, and it is here that we are
seeing an increase in the number of global ensemble members
suggesting the potential for freezing rain Monday morning.

With this potential freezing rain event being several days out,
and given that a significant amount of guidance still show little
to no wintry precip in our area, will hold off on any formal
messaging at this point. The airmass should modify enough by
Monday afternoon to bring an end to the FZRA threat, and then the
primary shortave trough approaching may help to increase rainfall
potential Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of light wintry
precip can`t be ruled out over northwest portions of the area for
Monday night as well, but confidence is lower for this occurrence
as deeper cold air will lag behind the system as it crosses our
area. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR flight conditions with northerly winds will prevail through
the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       33  55  37  60 /   0   0   0  30
Meridian      30  53  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     33  56  39  61 /   0   0   0  50
Hattiesburg   34  59  37  67 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       35  58  40  67 /   0   0   0  30
Greenville    33  52  38  55 /   0   0  10  80
Greenwood     30  53  37  56 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/SW