356
FXUS64 KJAN 150509
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - There is an increasing threat for thunderstorms this weekend,
   and we are monitoring for the potential for severe weather.

 - Before then, dry weather with above normal temperatures will
   continue to be the general rule.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Tonight through next Monday...High pressure at both the surface and
aloft will continue to bring quiet weather and warm conditions to
the forecast area through the work week.  By Friday, and continuing
into Saturday, moisture will subtly be on the increase across the
region ahead of a cold front that`ll push into and through the
forecast area late Saturday into Sunday.

Global models continue to indicate a window of opportunity from late
Saturday afternoon into at least the first half of Saturday night,
where some potential for severe storms will exist across mainly the
Delta region.  This specific area is currently where the better
conglomeration of wind shear, instability, and forcing is forecast
to reside as the aforementioned cold front moves into the forecast
area.  Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary concern
with such storms.  There still remains some uncertainty in the exact
evolution of this system and timing, in addition to the track of
some key features, and whether or not there will be enough adequate
level of instability in place ahead of the front. Therefore, please
continue to monitor the latest forecast for the most up-to-date
information concerning this severe potential this weekend.

Rainfall totals across the forecast area during this time look to
generally hover between 0.50-1.50 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible.  Currently, the higher amounts will exist across
the northern half of the CWA. This will be some much welcomed and
needed rainfall for the area, but it won`t put much of a dent in the
ongoing dry conditions across the area.

The front will exit the region Sunday afternoon.  A return to quiet
conditions is expected for the remainder of the day and into the new
work week.  Conditions will be slightly cooler across the forecast
area as we begin the week, with drier air and high pressure building
into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Quiet conditions will persist through the TAF period with VFR
conditions prevailing. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      56  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     57  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   58  91  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       58  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    57  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     56  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/CR