061
FXUS64 KJAN 111806
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1206 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Temperatures are expected to undergo a warming trend for the
    rest of the week, bringing afternoon high into the 70s/
    overnight lows in the 50s.

  - Rain chances return for the late Sunday into the new week as
    a frontal boundary pushes into the ArkLaMiss region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Tonight through Saturday:

Tonight, temps will not be as frigid as the previous nights;
however lows will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. High
pressure over the southeast CONUS will keep clear and dry
conditions for the ArkLaMiss region over the next several days.
South/southwesterly flow will increase moisture return, raising
dewpoint values to the 50s to near 60 degrees. Temps will also be
on the increase, both highs/lows are expected to be 10-15 degrees
warmer than average.

Sunday through Monday night:

As the ridge begins to break down over the region, low pressure over
the Rockies will push eastward towards the Mid-MS Valley and an
attendant frontal boundary will gradually move into the area late
Sunday afternoon through mid-week.

Rain chances return as the boundary approaches, resulting in showers
(15-30% chances) for Sunday afternoon, increasing throughout the
beginning portion of the week. Starting Monday, rain and isolated
storm chances for Monday (25-35%) and Tuesday (35-45%) for majority
of the CWA. Some storms could be on the strong side, however, there
is the potential for a few strong storms as minimal instability
could develop ahead of the boundary; however, models are not in
agreement. There are no SPC outlooks at this time but continue to
check back for additional updates as the system is several days
away. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least 06Z
Wednesday, but some potential for scattered low stratus around
3K feet may develop after that time. Some potential for MVFR
ceilings where those develop. Low-level wind shear is also
expected to be a concern at TAF sites north of Interstate 20 after
00Z Wednesday, with notations in TAFs for timing and strength.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       41  73  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      36  72  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     44  74  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   39  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       44  76  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    45  71  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     44  71  48  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/NF