538
FXUS62 KMFL 100725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
225 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

  - A strong cold front passage today will bringing the coldest
    temperatures of the season so far to the region tonight into
    Tuesday.

  - Strong northwest winds will result in significant wind chill
    values Tuesday morning, especially around the Lake region.

  - Hazardous marine conditions expected to develop across all
    coastal waters starting this morning.

  - Hazardous beach conditions expected today and into Tuesday with
    increasing risk of rip currents for all beaches of South
    Florida, and high surf over the Palm Beach county beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Guidance remains in good agreement about the upcoming cold weather
snap starting Monday morning. Latest sfc analyses place the frontal
boundary past the peninsula with the onset of drier and colder air
advection in place. Deep zonal flow will spread across the region
with northerly cold wind bringing the first cooling down of the
season.

Latest forecast temps for this afternoon remain around the same
values from previous model runs with highs in the low-mid 70s around
the Lake region, and in the upper 70s to low 80s further south. The
northerly winds are expected to reach the 10-15 mph range with
higher gusts by the early afternoon hours on Monday, intensifying
the cold air advection during the evening and overnight hours.

Model guidance remain in consensus in having the coldest period of
the cold weather on Tuesday morning, with lows dropping into the
upper 30s to low 40s around the Lake region, and mid-upper 40s
elsewhere. Locations right along the coast may remain close to 50.
In terms of wind chill values, guidance have been going a few
degrees cooler since yesterday`s runs and now NBM is showing 30-32
degrees around the Lake region, with mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere.

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Glades, Hendry, and
northern portions of Palm Beach and Collier counties from 4am to 9am
Tuesday morning for wind chill values of 35 degrees or less. Wind
chill values like those can lead to hypothermia with prolonged
exposure. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate
clothing, a hat, and gloves. Keep pets indoors as much as possible.
Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills
inside.

For the Tuesday afternoon highs, models also remain consistent with
keeping low-mid 60s around the Lake region/interior areas, and upper
60s elsewhere. Winds will likely peak in intensity, around 15 mph,
during the late morning hours Tuesday then beginning to subside in
the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Not much changes for the long term forecast philosophy with the air
mass across the state gradually moderating from Wednesday and
through the end of the work week as the west Atlantic ridge
returns. The last portion of the cold spell will happen Wednesday
morning with lows in the 40s inland, and high 50s to around 60
near the coasts.

Decreasing winds veer to a more easterly flow while warming up the
air mass. Afternoon highs climb back into the upper 70s to low 80s
by Friday and through the upcoming weekend.

POPs remain basically in single digits every day of the forecast
period with benign weather prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Generally VFR prevails at all terminals during the next 24 hours.
Gusty NW winds will begin later this morning and becoming robust
this afternoon. Gusts to around 25 kt may continue into the
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Hazardous marine conditions will develop today in the wake of the
frontal passage starting this morning and continuing through the
middle of the work week. All of South Florida`s coastal waters will
be affected by the stronger winds, including the Lake.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued with latest model estimates
showing possible wave heights in the 10 to 14 feet range in the
Atlantic waters on Tuesday, along with wind speeds in the 25-30 kt
range with higher gusts. Conditions should begin subsiding
Wednesday morning starting on the Gulf waters and then the
Atlantic later that afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for all South Florida
beaches today behind a cold front passage.

A high surf advisory will also be in effect for all Palm Beach
county beaches starting early morning Tuesday, and might be expanded
into Broward and Miami-Dade depending on latest model trends.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Northerly flow will result in very dry conditions and increasing
winds expected Tuesday afternoon with RH/wind speed values
approaching critical levels, mainly over the western half of South
Florida. The situation will continue to be closely monitored in case
further action becomes necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  49  68  60 /  10   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  47  68  56 /  10   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        82  49  69  60 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        83  49  68  59 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  47  68  61 /  10   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  47  68  61 /  10   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   84  49  70  60 /  10   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  80  46  68  60 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  46  69  60 /  10   0   0   0
Naples           77  44  65  49 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ063-
     066-067-070.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EST this morning through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ069.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Thursday evening
     for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17