142
FXUS62 KMLB 112008
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
308 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions last through tonight as
  northerly winds begin to subside but seas remain elevated

- Lighter wind, clear skies, and cold temperatures across Lake
  and Volusia counties tonight support the potential for frost
  development

- Dry weather is forecast through the remainder of the week with a
  gradual warming trend into the weekend and early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Now-Tonight...High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast
continues to expand eastward this afternoon. Here in east-central
Florida, we are on the eastern periphery of the surface high. The
tightened pressure gradient continues to produce gusty winds
along the coast, but where the gradient is weaker over the
interior, winds are beginning to subside. Temperatures have
struggled to reach the mid and upper 50s this afternoon, with only
a couple of spots in the low 60s along the Treasure Coast.

As we approach sunset, temperatures will quickly begin to fall
into the 40s and mid 50s. Another cold night is in store for the
area, especially across the interior and north of Interstate 4. In
the presence of light to nearly calm winds and clear sky
conditions, there is the potential for patchy/areas of frost to
form across Lake and inland Volusia counties. A Frost Advisory is
in effect there, starting at midnight. Patchy frost is possible in
surrounding areas, perhaps reaching as far as northern Orange,
Seminole, and Brevard counties.

Wednesday-Sunday...A few sites across the north, including Daytona
Beach, Sanford, and Leesburg, may approach record low temperatures
again Wednesday morning. Lows are forecast to plummet into the mid
30s to around 40 degrees along and north of I-4. With lighter
winds, wind chill will be less of a factor. Through the day,
temperatures will warm more efficiently into the upper 60s to low
70s areawide under mostly sunny skies. Some clouds may linger
along the far southern reaches of the Treasure Coast into the
afternoon. Overnight lows retreat into the 40s and 50s Wednesday
night with the coldest spots north and west of the Orlando metro.

Dry weather is forecast through the rest of the week as high
pressure maintains its influence over the Florida Peninsula. Broad
mid level troughing over the eastern U.S. keeps our mid/upper
level winds out of the northwest through at least Saturday. From
Sunday onward, a broad mid level ridge axis slides east from the
central U.S. and flattens into early next week. The main story
during this mid to extended range period will be temperatures
warming a few to several degrees each day. By the weekend, we
should be back in "near normal" territory, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and nighttime temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.
Model differences appear beyond Monday/Tuesday but generally still
support warming temperatures, reaching the low 80s areawide to
start the new work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to continue through at
least this evening before conditions slowly improve from north to
south over the local waters. Northerly winds persist around 20 kt
with seas 7-12 ft (offshore) and 6-10 ft (nearshore). The Small
Craft Advisory currently in effect for all marine zones will be
pared back to just the offshore Brevard and all of the Treasure
Coast waters at 7 PM. Small craft should still exercise caution
elsewhere through tonight.

High pressure builds over the waters mid to late week with
northerly winds and seas subsiding. Generally favorable boating
conditions are forecast to last from mid week into the weekend as
dry weather looks to prevail for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1251 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Gusty north winds are forecast to subside prior to sunset, becoming
5 kts or less overnight. Tomorrow, winds hold around 5-8 kts as
high pressure builds across the region. A deck of marine cloud
cover is observed brushing the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but
any ceilings are forecast to remain VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Lower relative humidity along and north of Interstate 4 will lead
to sensitive fire weather conditions on Wednesday. However, winds
will remain light (5-10 mph). Moisture gradually returns to the
area late week into the weekend, limiting fire weather concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wednesday, November 12th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 12-Nov  40 1995  59
Leesburg (LEE)      12-Nov  38 1991  58
Sanford (SFB)       12-Nov  40 1968  59
Orlando (MCO)       12-Nov  35 1913  59
Melbourne (MLB)     12-Nov  42 1968  61
Vero Beach (VRB)    12-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   12-Nov  41 1991  61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  36  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  40  69  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  46  71  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  37  67  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  39  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  41  69  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  46  72  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ041-044-144.

     Red Flag Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ045-046-
     053-058.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Law