222
FXUS64 KMOB 181153
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
553 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Patchy dense fog will be possible across southeastern
   Mississippi into Coastal Alabama this morning. Patchy dense
   fog will be possible each morning this week.

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
   until the rain arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Looking at observations and satellite imagery this morning gives
signs of some potential fog develop across southeastern
Mississippi and into coastal Alabama this morning. This areas is
mainly along and west of a backdoor cold front that marks a zone
between low to mid 60s dewpoints to the west and significantly
drier air to the east with dewpoints in the 30s. Fog should
develop across the moisture rich area where 60s dewpoints are
present and that seems to have already begun. Given the trends and
guidance this morning, we have opted to issue a dense fog advisory
for parts of southeastern Mississippi and Mobile county.

Fog will likely lift fairly early this morning as the sun will
allow for quick vertical mixing. There should be plenty of sun to
go around as high pressure begins to build over the deep south and
slowly drift eastward through Midweek. This will be in response to
a rather large and lumbering upper trough digging into the Four
Corners region of the US.This will continue our rather dry and
toasty period as highs continue to hover in the upper 70s to low
80s. Lows will also steadily climb with time as moisture gradually
increases with the slowly approaching trough by Friday. With
increasing moisture and lows, the expectation would be for
increased chances of fog and dense fog across the area this week
and more dense fog advisories may be needed in the coming days.

Things become rather complicated after Friday and through the
weekend as the series of shortwaves embedded within this larger
western US trough begin to eject eastward. Guidance is fairly
locked in on the evolution of the lead shortwave that is expected
to move into the Ohio river valley on Saturday. This will likely
bring a quick shot of rain to areas mainly west of I-65 and along
the highway 84 corridor. Unfortunately this system looks to be
strung out and rather displaced to give us any appreciable rain
and most of the area will likely only see scattered showers and
storms on Saturday. The next system seems to be the trickier of
the two as a cutoff upper low is expected to eject across the
central US sometime early next week. Guidance is on board with the
idea of this system but overall timing and position of the low is
all over the place and overall a rather low confidence forecast.
As a result, we will continue to monitor the rain chances early
next week as it at least looks possible someday before
Thanksgiving could receive some rain.

Lastly with the increasing active pattern for the area,
 rip currents will gradually pickup Friday and into the weekend
with MODERATE risk of rip currents. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Currently at issuance time, locations east of the Tombigbee River
are seeing VFR conditions, while dense fog and VLIFR ceilings are
developing over locations to the west. Expect fog to dissipate and
ceilings to lift by around 14-15z. VFR conditions will then
prevail through the remainder of the day and into the evening
hours. Fog may once again develop Tuesday night across the area.
Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the
period. /96


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light southeasterly flow will develop today and persist into
Wednesday. A moderate southerly flow develops on Friday ahead of
an approaching front. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  60  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   76  62  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      75  63  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   82  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  79  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      79  58  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   79  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ052-261-
     263-265.

FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$