901
FXUS64 KMOB 110614
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1214 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - A Freeze Warning for the entire area and a Cold Weather
   Advisory for Coastal counties remain in effect until 8am.
   Temperatures prior to sunrise will range from the mid 20s to
   low 30s, with wind chills in the low 20s.

 - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our local Gulf waters
   through 6am. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over
   the open Gulf waters.

 - Low humidity values, paired with the ongoing drought, will
   lead to elevated fire concerns for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The coldest night of the season so far is underway. Temperatures
as of midnight are already in the upper 20s across interior
counties, with freezing temperatures already reaching as far south
as the I-10 corridor. Forecast remains on track for the remainder
of the night, with most interior areas dropping a few more
degrees into the mid 20s, and even a few areas within a mile or
two of the immediate coastline dropping to below the freezing
mark. KMOB and KPNS are still expected to break their record daily
lows for November 11th (KMOB record low: 31 degrees; KPNS record
low: 33 degrees), with KMOB potentially breaking it by several
degrees (forecast low in 28 degrees). An areawide Freeze Warning
and a coastal-county Cold Weather Advisory, for wind chills as low
as 18 degrees, remain in effect until 8am.

The anomalously deep upper trough that resulted in this early season
arctic airmass will quickly lift away from the local region later
today. In its wake, a dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will
prevail through at least Saturday as upper ridging builds in from
the west. At the surface, strong high pressure overhead this morning
will shift to our east later today, cementing itself over northeast
Florida/southeast Georgia through the remainder of the week and into
the weekend. This will allow for winds to turn more southwesterly to
westerly starting this afternoon. After one more cold day today,
with highs only topping out in the mid to upper 50s and lows
dropping into the 30s areawide, we begin to warm up rather quickly,
with above average temperatures returning to the area starting
Thursday. Highs for late week will top out in the mid 70s and lows
will range from the mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast. At
this point, we will remain dry through Saturday, with rain chances
increasing for Sunday and early next week. It should be noted though
that recent ensemble guidance has been trending down on rain chances
for Sunday due to the slower movement of upper-level features, which
would allow for a stronger upper ridge to build in. We will keep
an eye on trends over the coming days and will adjust PoPs as
necessary. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the
period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds of
5 to 10 knots overnight shift to easterly, then southeasterly and
increase to around 10 knots Tuesday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Strong northerly flow will persist through the remainder of the
night, with occasional gusts to gale force possible over the open
Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our Gulf
waters through 6am. Winds will quickly weaken on Tuesday and
become a light onshore flow by Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Winds will be light and variable for the remainder of the week.
/96

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Very dry conditions remain in place through Tuesday, with afternoon
relative humidity values dropping into the 15-20% range. Pairing
this with our ongoing drought, will result in another day of
increased fire danger for the area. Winds, however, will be much
lighter in comparison to yesterday, so a Red Flag Warning will not
be needed. Moisture values increase as we get into Wednesday and
the latter part of the week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  40  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   57  44  71  55 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      58  47  70  57 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  34  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  57  35  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      56  34  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   58  32  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ263>266.

FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$