074
FXUS64 KMOB 241233
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - A couple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
   Tuesday, first focused over interior southeast Mississippi into
   interior southwest Alabama near and prior to daybreak Tuesday,
   then overspreading the rest of the area late Tuesday morning
   into Tuesday evening.

 - A Small Craft Advisory is likely going to be needed for much of
   the marine area Wednesday night through Thursday morning,
   potentially lingering into the weekend for the offshore
   waters.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday
   and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Cool and dry weather this morning is expected with temperatures
starting off in the lower to middle 50`s. A warm air advection
regime takes shape during the day allowing for moisture return and
temperatures to warm amply into the upper 70`s to near 80 once
again. A warm front lifts onshore today with richer low level
theta-e values moving over the area late tonight into Tuesday. A
shortwave pushes across the area during the overnight hours into
daybreak Tuesday, potentially sparking off a few showers and
storms over interior portions of southeast Mississippi into
interior southwest Alabama. A storm or two could be strong to
severe with a threat for a damaging wind gust, tornado, and/or
large hail. Ample shear will be present across the area in the
vicinity of the warm front with large, curved low level hodographs
yielding around 200 to 250 m2/s2 sfc-1km SRH, with some CAMs
indicating these values exceeding 300 m2/s2. Given the magnitude
of shear in place, if a storm were to become mature enough to
produce a tornado, a strong tornado could not be ruled out. There
is some expectation for some uptrend in low level moisture
quality, recently depicted fairly well by the latest CAM suite,
which should yield somewhere around 500 to 1,000j/kg of MLCAPE
near or prior to daybreak Tuesday in the aforementioned areas.
This will set the stage for the potential of organized
thunderstorms, potentially in the form of semi- discrete
supercells, near and prior to daybreak Tuesday capable of all
severe hazards. There are some caveats to this forecast, one being
the magnitude of forcing which will limit the overall threat, and
the other being how quickly moisture return occurs. If either the
forcing or the moisture return is more meager than currently
expected, we may generously end up with a few showers and a rumble
of thunder or two. However, if forcing is adequate and moisture
return performs as currently modeled, then we could have some
problems early Tuesday morning.

The overall threat doesn`t end there. The lead shortwave shifts
northeast and then the main trough begins to impinge on the area
during the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the
west. The entire forecast area is expected to destabilize quite a
bit with morning and afternoon MLCAPE values getting up to near
1,500j/kg. Hodographs will diminish slightly, however remaining
modestly large and curved with around 100 to 200 m2/s2 low level
SRH. 3CAPE values increase to near 150j/kg, with storm relative
wind diminishing to near 25 knots. This will support mini spinnies
within a potential prefrontal trough that is currently depicted
by recent CAMs to set up near the I-65 corridor. Given ample shear
and strong low level stretching potential for any updraft, any
storm that can mature and produce a tornado would still be capable
of producing a strong tornado. However, a similar question
remains on just how strong our forcing will be, particularly by
the late afternoon into evening hours. One thing that could
supplement thunderstorm development would be the aforementioned
pre- frontal. This would help focus low level convergence and
generate thunderstorms along it within an environment that remains
favorable for all severe hazards. Despite this, the overall
expectation is for isolated coverage of severe thunderstorms,
mainly in the form of discrete to semi- discrete supercells,
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes. This threat may linger into the evening hours prior to
the passage of the cold front late evening into the overnight
hours, however overall shear magnitude and instability begins to
wane rather quickly as we get into the late afternoon and early
evening hours as the forcing departs in combination with loss of
daytime heating.

As we head into Wednesday, cold advection takes hold with the
area quickly drying out and cooling off. We will generally be
looking at below normal highs and lows to round out the week, with
Thanksgiving featuring highs in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s.
Overnight lows will be well below normal for this time of year in
the lower to middle 30`s Thursday night and a touch warmer in the
middle to upper 30`s Friday night. A freeze may be possible over
interior counties of southeast Mississippi into interior southwest
Alabama. As we head into the weekend we begin another warm air
advection regime with highs steadily warming back to above normal
by Sunday in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s. This will all be ahead
of our next potential impactful weather system as we get into the
early part of next week. While there is substantial variability in
the overall pattern evolution, another severe weather setup may
present itself sometime late this weekend into early next week as
we enter an active weather pattern for the first week of December.
A Low risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a
Moderate risk for Tuesday through Wednesday night. A Low risk of
rip currents will once again return to our beaches as we get into
the latter part of the week. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mostly MVFR to VFR conditions persist this morning with a few
localized instance of LIFR visbys and cigs as patchy areas of fog
and low ceilings have developed this morning. These lowered cigs
are predominantly across ares north of I-10. Conditions should
rapidly improve to VFR over the next couple of hours and persist
through the day with a light southerly wind. Ceilings will reduce
to MVFR then IFR tonight as the next system approaches from the
west. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light northerly winds become southeasterly today with a light to
moderate southerly flow following for Tuesday. Winds shift out of
the northwest to north on Wednesday as a cold front moves through
with a moderate to strong offshore flow for Wednesday night through
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for most
marine waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, potentially
lingering in the offshore waters into the weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  65  80  60 /   0  20  60  60
Pensacola   76  68  78  65 /   0  20  40  70
Destin      76  67  78  66 /   0  20  30  70
Evergreen   80  62  80  58 /   0  10  60  80
Waynesboro  78  62  80  54 /   0  40  80  60
Camden      78  61  78  56 /   0  20  80  80
Crestview   79  62  80  61 /   0  20  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261-262.

FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$