Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
178 FXUS64 KMOB 171218 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 718 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 716 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Showers and storms return to the forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning. A stronger storm cannot be ruled out. - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by Friday evening, with a high risk expected for Saturday night and Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - Drier air next week and expanding drought may lead to fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An upper ridge over the eastern CONUS yields to a large upper trof which evolves over the central states on Saturday then pushes across the eastern states Sunday into Sunday night. An associated surface low passes well off to the north and brings a cold front through the forecast area mainly during Sunday morning. Deep layer moisture steadily improves ahead of the approaching front, with precipitable water values reaching around 2 inches Saturday night. A series of shortwaves embedded within the upper trof look to result in the best deep layer lift organizing just ahead of the approaching front. The timing of the best forcing looks to be from 06Z Sunday through about 15Z Sunday, and plenty of favorable shear will be available thanks to a 40-50 knot 850 mb jet. The question for the severe weather potential looks to be tied to the lower level lapse rates, which is typical for a mostly nocturnal event like this. Guidance for MLCAPE values ranges from 500 J/kg (or less) to 1000-1500 J/kg, although it was noted that GFS ensemble guidance showed about a 40% chance for CAPE values to exceed 1000. We are currently not outlooked by SPC, but will continue to monitor and mention strong storm development is possible. Have continued with a predominately dry forecast through Saturday, except for a small chance of rain Saturday afternoon over extreme southeast Mississippi. Likely pops follow for Saturday night west of I-65 with chance to good chance pops elsewhere, then chance to good chance pops continue into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon will be mostly dry except for a small chance of rain east of I-65, then dry conditions follow for Sunday night and Monday. Another cold front approaches the area Monday night then moves through on Tuesday, but moisture return ahead of the front will be insufficient to warrant pops. Yet another cold front approaches the area Wednesday night then slowly moves through Thursday into Thursday night, but again deep layer moisture looks too limited to support rain chances as well. A low risk of rip currents on Friday will be followed by a moderate risk for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday will be a high risk, then a moderate risk is in effect for Sunday night and Monday. A low risk of rip currents follows for Monday night through Tuesday night. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 716 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with a light southerly wind. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Saturday, then a northwesterly flow develops on Sunday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow briefly strengthens Sunday night then diminishes on Monday. A light to moderate westerly to northerly flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 85 67 84 69 / 0 0 10 50 Pensacola 82 71 82 72 / 0 0 10 40 Destin 82 70 82 71 / 0 0 0 30 Evergreen 89 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 50 Waynesboro 87 63 87 66 / 0 0 10 60 Camden 88 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 60 Crestview 85 60 85 65 / 0 0 0 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$