962
FXUS64 KMOB 071132
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
532 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon through this evening, mainly over interior portions
   of southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.

 - A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of
   the marine area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the
   potential for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf
   waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is likely for most of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the mid 20`s to lower 30`s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 458 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Areas of dense fog have developed along and south of I-65 this
morning. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory, in effect until 9aM
CST.

/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A weak, broad trough glances across the forecast area to the north
today bringing a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms, a
couple of which could be strong to severe. Another much more
potent upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS Sunday into
Monday, bringing with it a powerful cold front that will likely
bring the coldest airmass of the season with a near areawide
freeze Monday night. Strong winds follow the cold front
presenting marine hazards Sunday through Monday night and fire
weather concerns during the day Monday. Generally northwesterly to
westerly flow aloft prevails on the backside of a longwave upper
trough through the rest of the week with a return to more
seasonable temperatures by late week.

As we head through today the aforementioned shortwave will bring a
low end threat for strong to severe storms. Isolated to at best
scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop by early to mid afternoon. As storms attempt to mature,
adequate CAPE around 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg overlapping deep layer
shear around 35 to 40 knots will promote thunderstorm organization
with storm mode likely being in the form of multicells to semi-
discrete supercells. Forecast hodographs are modestly curved and
elongated, with just enough low level SRH in the 100 to 150 m2/s2
range to support a low end threat for a tornado or two. Strong
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust can`t be
ruled out, and any supercell that becomes elevated may pose a
threat for small hail. Generally weak SRI in the lowest km around
25 to 30 knots should promote miniature supercells aka mini
spinnies. As we head into Friday night, loss of surface heating
should temper surface based instability and any lingering severe
threat should diminish fairly quickly after sunset. Daytime highs
top out in the middle to upper 70`s, with lows Friday night only
falling into the lower to middle 60`s.

Saturday should remain mostly dry as our initial shortwave leaves
the area and we await the strong cold front late Saturday night
into Sunday. A few showers and maybe a storm or two could develop
along the cold front Saturday night through daybreak Sunday, with
a couple showers or storms lingering east of the I-65 corridor
Sunday morning into early afternoon. Dry weather settles into the
forecast area by Sunday night through the remainder of next week.

Our coldest airmass of the season will infiltrate the area Sunday
night through Monday night. Temperatures drop substantially into
the lower to middle 30`s for interior locations Sunday night with
middle to upper 30`s nearer the coast. A freeze warning may be
needed for far interior counties Sunday night generally along and
north of the Highway 84 corridor. Monday will feature our coldest
day of the season as highs struggle to exceed 50 degrees for most
locations. Nearer the coast spots may manage to break into the
lower 50`s. For reference, these highs are closer to what we would
generally expect for overnight lows this time of year with the
average low at KMOB being 50 degrees and the current forecast high
Monday being 53 degrees. As we head into Monday night surface high
pressure settles in, with calming winds and clear skies
prevailing. This will be an idealized radiational cooling setup
that will send nearly the entire forecast area below freezing,
perhaps well below freezing over the interior. Expect lows to dip
into the 23 to 27 range over interior areas, with 27 to 32 across
coastal counties. Even some of our beaches may not escape the
freezing temperatures as lows are expected to dip into the lower
30`s. Only spots that should remain above freezing will be the
more protected areas such as Dauphin Island and Destin.

We`ll have one more cold night Tuesday night after seeing
afternoon temperatures Tuesday in the upper 50`s. Lows Tuesday
night dip into the middle to upper 30`s for most locations,
perhaps even a few 40`s making their way back into the area as
high pressure shifts east and gradual airmass moderation begins.
We gradually moderate back to near normal temperatures mid to late
week with highs reaching the middle 70`s once again and lows in
the middle to upper 40`s over the interior and upper 40`s to lower
50`s nearer the coast. A Low risk of rip currents continues
through the middle of next week.

One more hazard to discuss is the potential for fire weather
concerns Monday afternoon. Strong winds will be present across the
area with sustained surface winds around 10 to 20 mph with
frequent gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. 20 foot winds also
approach similar values with sustained 20 foot winds closing in on
15 knots. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values dip to near
25 percent Monday. These values may trend even lower given
forecast guidance at this range has a tendency to underestimate
afternoon mixing with dewpoints typically verifying lower than
what forecast guidance depicts with such a dry airmass advecting
in. If this occurs, minimum relative humidity values may dip even
lower than currently forecast. Fuels remain very dry given the
ongoing drought, and combined with the strong winds and dry
airmass the potential will exist for Red Flag conditions
potentially areawide Monday morning into Monday afternoon. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions along and south of I-65 were noted at 5am,
with general VFR elsewhere. Dense fog that has developed is
expected to quickly mix out soon after sunrise. Friday, winds are
expected to increase to around 10 knots ahead of an approaching
system. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
bring local drops to CIGs and VISBYs, but general low end VFR
conditions are expected through the day. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Light southerly flow today becomes a westerly to southwesterly flow
on Saturday. A moderate to strong northwesterly flow develops Sunday
in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed in the wake of the cold front for all marine waters Sunday
afternoon through Monday night. Gusts to gale force are possible
over the open Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday morning. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  63  80  62 /  30  10   0  10
Pensacola   78  67  79  67 /  30  20  10  10
Destin      77  67  79  67 /  30  30  10  10
Evergreen   79  61  82  59 /  40  30  10  20
Waynesboro  78  60  81  57 /  40  20  10  30
Camden      78  61  80  57 /  40  40  10  30
Crestview   79  62  82  60 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ056>060.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201-203-
     205.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$