781
FXUS63 KSGF 020845
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Black ice and slick road conditions are a concern before 11
  AM as residual moisture has re-frozen overnight. Most impacted
  areas will be bridges, overpasses, and backroads.

- Watching for a potential brief band of snow or freezing
  drizzle Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Current
  probability for precipitation is < 15%, but that may need to
  be increased in future updates. Any precipitation would last
  less than 3-4 hours.

- Periods of warm-ups and cool-downs this week, but for the most
  part temperatures remain near or below normal (46-52 F is
  normal range for early December).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Current water vapor and infrared satellite imagery show dry air
and clearing skies racing in behind the exiting system that
brought some light snow accumulations to our region. Infrared
satellite imagery shows low stratus clearing from west to east,
which should give way to sunny skies by 8-10 AM this morning.


Black ice and slick road concerns before 11 AM this morning:

Observed temperatures this morning are in the middle 20s which
has led to some reports of frozen roads as residual moisture and
slush from yesterday`s snow has refrozen. This will introduce
black ice and slick road concerns for the morning commute before
11 AM when the sun will be out and temperatures will increase
above freezing. The areas most likely to be affected by icy
roads are bridges, overpasses, and backroads. We have already
received some reports of icy backroad conditions near
Marshfield. Take it slow when driving this morning!


Gradual warm-up into Wednesday before sharply dropping overnight:

Sunny skies this afternoon along with modest height rises behind
the exiting system and ahead of the next system will allow
temperatures to warm into the middle 30s to lower 40s. The
warmer temperatures will be in extreme SW MO/SE KS as southerly
winds behind a departing surface high will advect in warmer air
from the south. Lows tonight will be a tad warmer in the middle
to upper 20s. Wednesday will continue the warming trend with
highs in the lower 40s toward central MO, and upper 40s along
the southern MO border.


Potential for a brief band of snow or freezing drizzle Wednesday:

The next mid- and upper-level shortwave trough is progged to
traverse the region Wednesday into Thursday. It`s forecast to be
rather positively-tilted and become less amplified as it
shimmies through the area. Nevertheless, a 150+ jet streak will
develop ahead of the wave across the Ohio River Valley. Jet
streak dynamics will allow for a strong surface high pressure
system to drop into the area behind cold front, bringing in
colder air once again. Analyzing medium-range models show not
overly great moisture depth through the atmosphere, but there
does seem to be enough for the strong frontogenesis to force
a thin band of light precipitation. At the moment, probability
of precipitation is less than 15%, however, global models
generally don`t resolve these features well, and as medium-range
and hi-res CAMs start to come into view, we are seeing the
signal for one of these bands to move through. This should
increase chances over the next few forecasts.

The main question is what type of precipitation will we see with
this band. Once again, analyzing NAM/GFS/SREF/REFS soundings,
shows that much of the moisture/saturation is confined to the
low-levels, with a somewhat dry layer aloft and an unsaturated
DGZ. This would lead to warm rain processes and lead to drizzle
formation. This brings in the potential for freezing drizzle as
cold air will rush in behind the cold front (lows Wednesday
night are forecast to be in the teens to lower 20s). There are
still some uncertainties in freezing drizzle, though. The three
main ingredients (no cloud ice, saturated low-levels, and low-
level lift) seem to be just barely disjointed. For example, lift
along the front seems to drop-off as temperatures drop below
freezing (though northerly upslope flow along the Ozark Plateau
may make up for this). Additionally, model soundings point to a
mid- level cloud layer above the stratus which could feed in
some cloud ice and cease drizzle production. For those reasons,
light snow will also be a potential with this band instead of
freezing drizzle. We will have to monitor trends going forward,
but either if either precipitation type occurs, it would be
quick, last less than 3-4 hours, and stay mainly confined to
along and north of I-44.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Near or below normal temperatures prevail this week:

Following the strong cold front, highs Thursday will be chilly
again in the middle 20s toward central MO, to the middle 30s
along the southern MO border. Temperatures are then expected to
gradually warm-up once again with highs in the lower to middle
40s Thursday, and the middle to upper 40s Saturday. Temperature
spreads then widen beyond Saturday as ensemble spread increases,
but the mean temperature sits around the lower 40s which is
still below normal for early December.


A system may reveal itself by the end of this week:

During this long term period, precipitation chances are less
than 15%, which is a stark change from a 30-40% forecast for
Thursday night into Friday just 24 hours ago. This is an
embodiment of model uncertainty after Day 4 or 5. Nevertheless,
the grand ensemble shows the generally pattern with a deep
trough over the central to eastern CONUS. Depending on where
exactly the trough axis sets up, any shortwave energy that drops
through the longwave pattern may bring a system through the
area sometime in the long term. We will continue to monitor
trends, but for now it looks like the trough axis may be just
east of the area, keeping us relatively dry for the foreseeable
future.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current satellite imagery shows low stratus moving through the
area. Surface observations have been oscillating these clouds
from IFR to MVFR. This will continue to be the case as the
clouds shift eastward through the TAF period. There is generally
good agreement in these clouds leaving the area and/or
dissipating between 14-16Z. After 14-16Z, winds become south-
southwesterly at 5-10 kts with mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price