709
FXUS63 KSGF 021709
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1109 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend starting today with above normal temperatures
  beginning Tuesday and continuing into the 8 to 14 day outlook.

- Low end precipitation chances with a front Thursday into
  Friday with an upper level disturbance and surface front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 118 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Upper level analysis shows the upper low that brought some light
rain to the area last night and Saturday morning has slowly
shifted into southern IL. We are seeing rising upper heights as
a ridge axis builds northeast across the upper Mississippi
valley into the western Great Lakes regions. Surface high
pressure has moved into the area along with a cooler and drier
air mass. Winds have gone calm and we are seeing pretty good
radiational cooling conditions develop over the area.
Temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s across
the area and should get close to and below freezing during the
overnight hours into early Sunday morning. The freeze warning
remains in effect until 8 am and with the expected freezing
temperatures should end the growing season across the forecast
area.

Today into Tonight: The surface high pressure system will begin
to shift eastward today and tonight and we`ll see a return to
southerly winds this afternoon. Low level warm advection will
begin this afternoon into tonight with stronger 850mb winds out
of the west to southwest. Highs today with plenty of sunshine
will climb back into the mid to upper 50s after a cold start to
the morning. A clear sky and light wind tonight will drop
temperatures back into the low to mid 30s in our eastern CWA,
but the stronger warm air advection in the west will keep a bit
warmer temperatures in the low 40s there.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 118 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Warming trend continues this week: A more zonal pattern will set
up early this week with the polar jet remaining well to the
north of the area. Low level warm advection will continue to
strengthen as a low level jet develops over the area out of the
southwest. Ensemble means are showing 850mb temperatures in the
12-15 deg C range on Mon-Tue. Local climate sounding study shows
temperatures reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s for this time of
year with those 850mb temperatures, which is in line with our
NBM numbers in the upper 60s to low 70s and has pretty good
agreement with its NBM members. There is a bit more variance on
Thursday as we start to get a stronger push of warm air in
advance of the next front which should arrive Thursday night
into Friday. So we are looking at well above normal temperatures
into Thursday and possibly Friday with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Precipitation chances Thursday night into Friday: A dip in the
jet stream with an upper shortwave will push into the mid
Mississippi valley region Thursday night into Friday which will
also push a front through the area. Moisture should increase
ahead of the front and precipitation chances (15-20% at this
time) will be associated with the front and upper wave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with mostly clear skies. Winds will remain light out
of the south to southwest, generally less than 10kts. A switch
to the west is likely by Monday afternoon. Low level wind shear
is also likely at the sites late tonight into Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield