289
FXUS63 KSGF 211732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few shower may linger into this afternoon. Most locations
  will remain dry however.

- A few areas of dense fog may develop with visibilities around
  a half mile or less at times late tonight into Saturday
  morning.

- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return Sunday night through
  Monday. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate
  due to some model uncertainty with this next system.

- Increasing confidence in below average temperatures by mid
  next week into Thanksgiving, and continuing into next
  weekend. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

This Morning:
Upper-level dynamics continue to provide ample lift and
divergence aloft as broad southwest flow continues over the
central CONUS. At the surface, a warm front continues to bisect
the area, with a trailing cold front progged to slide through
behind the system as it exits later today. In the meantime,
moisture overriding into the area continues to support
widespread showers. The moist environment is characterized by
unseasonably high dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60, with
the 00Z RAOB measuring a PWAT of 1.28 inches. However,
instability remains rather minimal (500-750 J/kg MUCAPE). As a
result, thunderstorm chances are expected to remain low around
10-20%. Additionally, some localized areas of dense fog will
continue to linger through the overnight, particularly across
central and south central MO. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in
effect for this area through 9 am with reduced visibilities
around a half mile or less at times. The advisory may be able to
let go earlier if trends continue of improving visibilities.

Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually begin to shift north
and east through the area later this morning after sunrise, with
the fog lifting as well. Forecast rainfall amounts from
overnight through the remainder of today are expected to be
highest across central MO and north towards the Interstate 70
corridor. In this area, the HREF PMM suggests localized amounts
around 0.50 to 1.0 inch. Most locations remain closer to 0.10 to
0.25 inch of additional rainfall. This will bring storm totals
to around 1 to 2 inches in many areas, with some localized
corridors up to 3+ inches over the last 24-36 hours. However,
flooding has been very limited, generally more of a nuisance in
nature to urban areas. Most of the widespread activity will have
cleared the area by the late morning/early afternoon with winds
turning out of the west-northwest. Afternoon highs reach into
the 60s, to perhaps near 70 across far southern MO.

As we progress the late afternoon into the evening, rain
chances taper off to 20-40% across the northern counties. Will
need to keep an eye on persist low-level moisture in the
vicinity of upslope omega along the plateau, which would
support lingering drizzle into the evening. Cooler temperatures
are slow to move into the area, with lingering cloud cover
keeping overnight lows in the 40s. If we are to clear in some
areas, fog may be reintroduced to the forecast overnight into
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Saturday:
An area of high pressure settles into the region on Saturday,
with drier conditions and seasonable temperatures. Highs in the
upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday-Monday:
As we progress into Sunday, another upper-level system begins
to build out of the Four Corners region. Moisture will be on
increase ahead of the trough as southerly flow returns on
Sunday. Highs on Sunday reach into the lower to middle 60s, with
increasing cloud cover. This will support a return of rain
chances (60-90%) to the area by Sunday night into Monday
morning. Ensemble guidance is coming into good agreement for the
best coverage to occur on Monday morning through the afternoon,
before tapering off into Monday night. We are currently not
expecting any severe or flooding with this system. Rainfall
amounts are projected to be highest across southern MO based on
recent NBM probabilities:

Prob > 0.25 inch: 75-100%
Prob > 0.50 inch: 50-75%
Prob > 1.00 inch: 25-50%

We will continue to monitor trends and pin down exact rainfall
amounts over the coming days. Nonetheless, additional rainfall
will be beneficial to helping alleviate ongoing drought
conditions.

Tuesday-Thursday:
By Tuesday, rain chances diminish to the east of the area with a
trailing frontal passage. Meanwhile, an upper-level low is
expected to translate across the Northern Plains into the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday into Wednesday. This will feature a
stronger cold front passage Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Behind the stronger cold front, highs dip below average into the
40s, with overnight lows in the 20s. This is 5 to 10 degrees
below normal for late November. Confidence continues to
increase in this signal, as gleaned from EFI Shift of Tails.
CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperatures outlook continue to
support below average temperatures lingering into early
December. However, there is still large interquartile
temperature spreads in the NBM as we get into next weekend and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Surface low pressure was moving over the region pulling cloud
cover and rain north of the area. While clouds will thin or
break through this afternoon, as the low moves east, clouds
will return on the back side of the low with MVFR to IFR
ceilingsreturning by late this evening into Saturday morning.

Where clouds don`t fill in, patchy fog may develop though
confidence in this occurring is low.

Surface winds will be gusty through this afternoon before
dropping off as the low moves east of the region tonight. Winds
will shift from southerly to northerly as well in association
with the lows movement.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Hatch