715
FXUS63 KSGF 201212
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
612 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the morning. The
  strongest storms through 9 AM may produce hail up to the size
  of quarters, but widespread severe storms are not expected.

- There may be some breaks in rain early in the day today, but
  widespread showers and thunderstorms resume this afternoon and
  continue through Friday.

- Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with some
  embedded swaths/pockets seeing 2-4 inches of rain. Flash
  flooding may occur with embedded areas of intense rainfall
  rates, but widespread flooding is not anticipated.

- 70-80% chances for rain return sometime early next week.
  Exact timing and amounts will likely fluctuate due to inherent
  uncertainty with this type of system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A warm front is pushing north into southern Missouri early this
morning, with temperatures actually rising into the 60s in
extreme southwest Missouri early this morning. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are spread from southern Texas through
northern Missouri amidst a broad area of synoptic ascent. 00Z
upper air observations indicate an expansive 100kt 250mb jet
curving from the Gulf of California through central Missouri and
the Outer Banks region. Since 00Z, the jet has split apart over
the TX Panhandle to form two distinct jet streaks, the stronger
of which currently sits directly over the Dissected Till Plains
of northern Missouri, setting our area up under strong upper-
level divergence. Adding to the favorable conditions for ascent
is our position within a warm air advection regime.

2:30 AM radar shows scattered radar echoes extending from our
Douglas County in Missouri through the Poplar Bluff, MO area
into middle Tennessee. These storms are positioned directly on
top of a tight low-level theta-e gradient, with the mesoscale
forcing for individual storms largely being tied to locally
stronger pockets of isentropic ascent. All but our northernmost
counties have access to 500-1000J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE, which
is quickly diminishing as the overnight hours progress.

While some discrete elevated storms have been able to develop
and strengthen into healthy storms, radar trends suggest that
clustered storm mode is beginning to dominate. As storms become
more and more clustered in their development and propagation,
the severe hail threat will proportionally decrease. Storms
becoming better organized will coincide with the decrease of
available instability for them to feed off of, which will work
against the potential for the growth of large hail. However,
small hail (less than quarter size) will be possible in all
semi-discrete storms through early morning (8-9 AM).

The overnight CAM suite suggests that early morning convection
will band together and push east before an additional round
develops late morning into early afternoon. This should provide
a break in the rain for most, especially along and west of Hwy
65.

Moisture advection ramps up mid-morning, helping increase
available instability for the second round of showers and
storms (06Z HRRR suggests nearly 2000 J/kg at its highest for
our extreme southwest Missouri counties). The warm front won`t
get very far north before stalling across southern Missouri,
making itself readily available to serve as a focal point for
additional storms. Abundant moisture could (and is most likely
to) keep the area gloomy under a low stratus deck between
rounds, preventing significant thermodynamic recovery and
keeping afternoon thunderstorms non-severe. However, there is
an alternate scenario where mid-level lapse rates get a chance
to recover during the late morning, which could potentially
lead to an additional elevated hailstorm threat with any semi-
discrete supercells or multicell clusters during the afternoon
round of showers and storms. Anticipated hail size would be up
to the size of quarters in this secondary, less-likely scenario.

With or without hail threat, the available instability for this
afternoon`s thunderstorms will contribute to increased
convective rainfall potential. Overall, anticipated rainfall
amounts remain consistent with previous forecasts, with all of
southwest Missouri and far southeast Kansas expected to see at
least 1-2" of rain when all is said and done. 00Z HREF LPMMs
suggest embedded swaths/pockets of localized amounts up to
2-4.5" will be possible across southern Missouri/southeast
Kansas, though it`s impossible to know exactly where those
swaths/pockets will be until the convective rainbands set up.

Flash flooding threat remains rate-driven and constrained to
areas which receive 2-4 inches of rain or more within a 3-6
hour timeframe. If one of the pockets of heaviest rainfall were
to set up over a city, urban flooding could be a concern. One
consideration in relation to urban flooding may be that recently
fallen leaves may not have been cleared from storm drains yet,
which could exacerbate any rate-driven ponding or flooding.

Once rainfall begins and spreads across the area on Thursday
afternoon, rain will continue through the overnight hours into
Friday morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall
during the day today, with intensity decreasing tonight and
overnight into Friday to a light, steady stratiform rain.

Low pressure associated with this storm system will slide into
the Ozarks by Friday afternoon, with a cold front sliding
behind it.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Seasonable weather returns for the weekend behind this system.
Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected for Saturday and
into the low 60s on Sunday, with overnight lows in the 40s
through the weekend. Seasonable highs in the upper 50s will
continue into early next week.

The overall synoptic pattern stays active, with low rain
chances (15-40%) returning Sunday and increasing to 70-80%
Sunday night and Monday as an additional upper wave pushes into
the Plains. With the pattern as amplified as it is, especially
with so many shortwave disturbances that global models sometimes
struggle with, cross-model consistency and run-to-run
consistency is still low, keeping details of this next system
fuzzy for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Highly variable and volatile conditions for this TAF period.
Confidence in timing and intensity of phenomena is low for
extended period.

Conditions across the area vary from VLIFR to VFR. Scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area are the
first forecast liability, with outflow wind shifts, decreased
visibility due to heavy rain, decreased ceilings in close
proximity, and lightning all concerns with these storms. The
second forecast liability is non-thunderstorm low stratus and
fog due to highly saturated conditions at the surface.

Overall trend with showers and thunderstorms is that an early
morning semi-organized line will push east with some periods of
clearing behind it through the morning before a second
widespread round pushes in early this afternoon. The most likely
time frame for breaks in showers/storms and briefly improved
conditions is 14Z-19Z. Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings will
likely accompany the second round of showers and storms this
afternoon and will persist into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden