844
FXUS64 KTSA 111712
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

 - Locally elevated fire weather concerns today due to low
   relative humidities and strong, gusty winds.

 - Roller coaster temperatures into early next week, with multiple
   cold fronts set to move through the region.

 - The strongest cold front in the period moves through late
   Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Single digit wind
   chill values Sunday morning north of I-40.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Limited to locally elevated fire weather concerns exist this
afternoon given the continued dry low levels and return to well
above normal temperatures today aided by the development of strong
southwesterly, downslope winds. The current forecast targets a
small portion of east central Oklahoma /namely parts of southern
Creek, Okfuskee and western Okmulgee counties/ for the worst
combination of parameters, including 75th to 85th percentile ERC
values. Conditions will improve late afternoon into the evening
with the loss of daytime heating and an expected decrease in wind
speeds /albeit a modest one/.

Attention then turns to the next cold front, which will move
through late tonight/early Friday morning. Winds will shift to a
northerly direction and increase in speed for areas north of I-44
by daybreak Friday, although morning temperatures should remain
on the high side for this time of year in most locales.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The aforementioned cold front will continue to move southward
into the day Friday, likely clearing the entire area by midday. A
gradient in daytime temperatures is likely to occur, with above
normal values hanging on for the southern half of the area and
noticeably cooler values for the northern half, especially when
considering the increase in wind speeds behind the front. Wind
speeds and gusts have been adjusted upward from the NBM
initialization using the NBM 75th percentile values for sustained
speeds and by mixing in the 90th percentile for the gusts.

Light southerly winds will make a return Saturday to portions of
the area but not enough to lead to much of a warmup in most areas
compared to Friday. There remains a very low chance of light
precipitation Saturday afternoon and evening in southeast Oklahoma
and perhaps into west central Arkansas, with the overall chance
remaining below mentionable levels for now.

The much advertised strong cold front remains on track to move
into the area beginning late afternoon Saturday and continuing
into Saturday night. Data trends continue to point more toward the
colder solutions, with forecast temperatures combined with strong
and gusty winds behind the front leading to apparent temperatures
Sunday morning in the single digits for areas north of I-40. Wind
speeds and gusts behind the front have been adjusted upward using
a similar process to those with the Friday front.

The center of the surface high behind the front will pass well to
the north and east of the area, with the surface ridge axis
pushing through Sunday night. Southerly winds will return to much
of the area by daybreak Monday and likely a non-diurnal low
temperature trend Sunday night and into Monday in most spots. The
post-frontal airmass looks to be cold enough that highs on Monday
should still be below normal despite the south winds. However,
above normal temperatures look to return by Tuesday and certainly
by Wednesday, continuing through the end of the work week given a
reduced meridional flow component in the upper level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to
southwest winds will gust over 20 knots at times today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  40  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  39  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  41  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   65  37  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   60  40  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  42  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  40  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   60  38  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   65  40  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  40  64  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05